It’s MLB Trade Deadline Day. The Cincinnati Reds have been very busy working the phones. They’ve already traded their biggest acquistion of the 2023-24 free agency RHP Frankie Montas to a division rival, now they’re trading one of their better bullpen arms, Lucas Sims, as well.
The Return
In this deal, the Cincinnati Reds got back 19 year old Ovis Portes, a right handed pitching prospect. According to Sox Prospects, Ovis is very tall, throws from 3 quarters arm slot with a lot of speed generated from his release point. His fastball sits at 95-98 and can hit triple digits with more strength. Very easy velocity. He also has a changeup and slider, his changeup is still under construction.
So far in 2024, he’s pitched at FCL (Rookie League) and he was promoted to A ball where he’s made 5 starts so far and has a 3.43 ERA with 15 walks & 25 strikeouts in 21 innings pitched. Ovis is definitely a project arm, one that likely will end up in the bullpen throwing easy heat. He will report to the Cincinnati Reds’ A ball affiliate Daytona Tortugas.
Bio: Ovis was born in St. Johns, Antigua/Barbuda and is 6’4″ 170 lbs and is 19 years old. He is the first professional baseball player to sign from Antigua and Barbuda. Source Soxprospects.com – He signed for $25,000
Found some video on him:
1st look Ovis Portes, who was spotlighted by @alexspeier a few weeks ago: "19-year-old righty stands out at 6'4 with all kinds of room to fill out. He currently sits at 95-96 mph and tops out at 98, along with what Abraham called 'a slider that really seems to baffle hitters.'" pic.twitter.com/068g2k1OiX
Lucas Sims had a very up and down career with the Cincinnati Reds. One month he could locate his stuff, the next he couldn’t. I’m sure a lot of Reds fans are happy he’s gone. Me? I think I am. He’s a good dude, but 5.0 walks per 9 speak for itself. It was exhausting watching David Bell trot him out there in crucial spots for him to collapse. Best of luck in Boston, Lucas.
It’s trade deadline day, and we can expect several more Reds moves, we could imagine. Last night, right before the game against the Chicago Cubs completed, Mark Feisand of MLB.com reported the Cincinnati Reds were in agreement with the Milwaukee Brewers to trade RHP SP Frankie Montas to Wisconsin. We were a little surprised, all of us, to see what the Reds got back for a guy who, let’s face it, was not very good for us & expiring/expensive, so we’re rather happy with this, even though we hate Milwaukee.
Frankie Montas Is Headed To Milwaukee
The Frankie Montas era has completed in Cincinnati (for 2024, at least.) He ended his Reds tenure with a 5.01 ERA, 4.91 FIP, 85 ERA+, & averaged 9 hits per 9 innings, 4 walks per 9, and only 7.5 Ks per 9. He had a 41:78 BB:K, gave up 14 homers in 93.1 innings pitched. He was healthy for the most part, but he’ll tell you himself: it was a disappointing go at it in 2024. So what did we end up getting back for him? We got a few familiar faces.
OF Joey Wiemer – Cincinnati Bearcat
If you started watching the Cincinnati Reds in 2023, you remember this guy well. If he wasn’t hitting an absolute bomb that put a dagger in our gut in ’23, he was robbing Elly De La Cruz of a homer that ended up saving them (Brewers) the game. This one comes as bit of a surprise, even though it’s known if you’re trading in division, it better be a haul. Considering Montas only signed a 1 year deal with a mutual option for ’25, this is impressive getting a former top 100 prospect in Joey Wiemer who won’t be a Free Agent until 2029.
It was just reported by Charlie Goldsmith that as of right now, Joey Wiemer will report to AAA Louisville Bats to start off his Reds tenure. Joey Wiemer is known for his speed, arm, & his defensive abilities in the outfield. He also has some big time strength and hit 13 HRs in 2023 in the big leagues. He had 32 extra base hits last year for the Brewers in 336 plate appearances. We can call it what it is: a reclamation project for a guy that was ranked as high as baseball’s 75th best prospect. Joey has been tremendous in July in AAA for Nashville slashing .333/.494/.517 with 7 XBHs (2 HRs, 5 2B) and totaling 20 hits. I don’t think it’ll be long before the Reds swallow their pride, DFA Austin Slater, and give Joey Wiemer some playing time in Cincinnati.
Jakob Junis – RHP RP
In the deal, the Reds also got RHP Jakob Junis, whom has been very good for the Milwaukee Brewers pitching lab as well in a swing man role. Jakob has a mutual option year in 2026 for $8,000,000 which the Reds may act on should they lose Martinez in FA (if they don’t trade him). Junis has 5 pitches, but primarily uses offspeed pitches – check below for his usage chart.
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves – July 23, 2024 – Your Cincinnati Reds showed again coming out of the All-Star break how much they play down to lesser competition and show up against good teams. How does a team that swept the Dodgers and Yankees get swept by the Tigers and Nationals? A streaky lineup is how. This rotation and bullpen has been sublime, but the bats are far too inconsistent. Can the Reds build on last night’s performance?
Cincinnati Reds RHP Nick Martinez
Cincinnati Reds RHP Nick Martinez.
When Nick Martinez starts a game, it falls apart in the third inning. It’s actually incredible how consistently bad he is as a starter against his appearances in relief. As a starter, Martinez’s ERA in the third inning is over 10. As a reliever, his overall ERA is sub 3.50. Looking at his stats as a whole is somewhat encouraging. He owns an overall ERA of 3.88. He ranks in the 98th percentile in Chase % with 36.7% and the 98th percentile in BB % with just 3.0%.
Control is not an issue. His arsenal is the issue. His fastball is phenomenal with 0 HRs and a BAA of just .200. Yet on his cutter and curveball, he’s given up 10 XBHs (3 HRs). His changeup has also been smacked for 3 HRs. He’s hittable if you get to see him twice and that’s why we start to see his ERA skyrocket in the third and fourth inning of his appearances. By the way, in the first inning, his ERA is only 1.69 and in the second it’s 0.00. You just don’t want to see him pitching that early because he’s bound to get rocked.
Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card
Batters
Batting Average
1
2B Jonathan India
.275
2
SS Elly De La Cruz
.258
3
1B Spencer Steer
.236
4
C Tyler Stephenson
.238
5
CF Stuart Fairchild
.229
6
3B Noelvi Marte
.179
7
LF Austin Slater
.189
8
RF Rece Hinds
.353
9
DH Santiago Espinal
.219
Nice to see Rece Hinds again mainly because of the intrigue and the hope that he still has some magic. He’s been swinging at everything so let’s hope he can barrel a fastball. The Reds will have a tough time against Chris Sale tonight. Candelario gets a day off which makes sense against Sale. Jonathan India has been getting on base so well recently that I still expect some runs, but they may need a lot of them with Martinez on the mound tonight.
Atlanta Braves LHP Chris Sale
Atlanta Braves LHP Chris Sale.
Sale has been one of the best starting pitchers in the majors for a long time… and still is. Owning a 13-3 record with a 2.70 ERA, Sale is no joke. Seriously, take a look at his statcast and your jaw will drop. The dude is in the 90th percentile or better in Pitching Run Value (22!), Breaking Run Value (1st in majors), Offspeed Run Value, xERA, Avg Exit Velo, Chase %, K %, and Hard Hit %. And then he’s in the 80th percentile of better for literally everything else except Velo, Extension, and Fastball Run Value. Not much to say other than you have to catch this guy on an off day or have your best guy on the mound against him.
Atlanta Braves Lineup Card
Batters
Batting Average
1
CF Jarred Kelenic
.248
2
3B Nacho Alvarez Jr.
.000
3
DH Marcell Ozuna
.311
4
C Travis d’Arnaud
.258
5
1B Matt Olson
.220
6
RF Adam Duvall
.183
7
LF Eddie Rosario
.186
8
SS Orlando Arcia
.212
9
2B Zack Short
.119
Nacho Alvarez Jr. makes his second appearance on his career still in search of his first hit. Zack Short makes an appearance with Ozzie Albies going to the IL yesterday and Austin Riley hitting the paternity list this morning. On paper, looking at averages, this lineup isn’t scary – doesn’t really look much different from the Reds lineup to be honest. Ozuna is a factor more often than not and Olson is having a down year. With Chris Sale on the mound, 2 runs might be all this lineup needs to beat the Reds.
Jul 29, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Cincinnati Reds second baseman Matt McLain (9) throws to first for the out against Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder James Outman (33) during the fourth inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
It’s been almost a full year since the Cincinnati Reds’ Matt McLain has suited up in uniform and played a game for the team. On 8/28 of 2023, he was put on the Injured List with a right oblique strain. In spring training, as we know, he dove for a ball in practice and tore his labrum, requiring some serious surgery. But…the 5’8″ baseball lover is almost back according to him and the team.
Reds Matt McLain celebrates an extra base hit in Cincinnati, OH Great American Ballpark
August 12 – Target Date For Rehab Stint
As the headline reads, the team is targeting 8/12 as the day he begins he rehab stint. He is set to take live batting practice with the team as early as this coming weekend, likely next Monday, however. The Cincinnati Reds & Matt have taken his progression very seriously. Just 2 weeks ago, he began swinging the bat. That was the first step. Now? He’s further along and ready to start seeing pitches.
Matt has made it clear: He wants to play in 2024.
Matt McLain joined the Reds on the roadtrip in Atlanta to begin getting around the team again before he heads on his rehab stint. The Reds will give him 2 or so weeks to get back in the swing of baseball before they reactivate him. He needs to sign off on being entirely healthy and ready to play. He told reporters yesterday, “No matter where the team is standings wise, no matter what, I want to play and will play in 2024.”
It wasn’t even 7 months ago, Cincinnati Reds fans were all excited. We were signing pitching left and right after another year of coming up short late in the year due to a massive hole. The Front Office actually addressed it. And now here we are. Once again…sellers. Should we lobby to change the team name to Cincinnati Cellars? Or will Cincinnati Sellers do, too? Anyways, whatever. Let’s get into why you’re here to read this. The Baltimore Orioles are interested in some of our expiring assets.
Frankie Montas & Nick Martinez
Jon Morosi posted yesterday that the Baltimore Orioles had expressed interest in these two players that the Cincinnati Reds signed this previous offseason – The Reds were taking a huge gamble with Montas and he’s been relatively dogdoo, just keeping it a band. Those 20 wins he was going to win himself? Yeah, that’s not happening.
We know, through an O’s reporter, that the Cincinnati Reds had sent scouts to the Orioles’ A level team to scout several players, so we’re going to insist that the Reds want at least ONE player from that level, and I think I may know exactly who that is because he fits, so well, what the Reds enamor themselves over year in and year out.
Make no mistake, folks…the Cincinnati Reds signed Frankie Montas & Nick Martinez both knowing it was unlikely they held onto them for a long period of time. These two were signed, essentially, to either work out, or they were going to trade. EVERY team knows this. The Reds know this. So long story short, these two won’t be pulling back anything significant when it comes to trade…they’re also very expensive.
In this package, the Baltimore Orioles would owe the remaining contracts of Nick Martinez AND Frankie Montas, respectively. For Frankie Montas, that’d be around $10M, for Nick Martinez, that’ll be about $7M. The Baltimore Orioles would be taking advantage of the expiring contracts while making their team better utilizing prospect capital they can afford to lose without questioning future. The Cincinnati Reds would be receiving players that make sense for them due to projectability & the fact that they will be shedding payroll, almost $17M retained by dealing these players. The O’s have new ownership and seem likely they’d be willing to fork over some cash to obtain players.
SeatGeek Affiliate: Use code “NATISPORTS” at Checkout to receive $20 OFF ANY Tickets! The day Devin Mesoraco walked up to the Reds podium at the MLB Winter Meetings where they were selecting who would pick where in the MLB Lottery Draft he said he was going to come out a winner for the Reds. With a little LOT bit of luck, he delivered. The Cincinnati Reds selected 2nd overall in this 2024 draft, and that’s the luckiest the franchise has been in years. One thing we can say with confidence: The Cincinnati Reds Front Office has a plan, and they’ve stuck to it the last two years in the draft(s). Pitching, high upside middle infielders from prep schools, collegiate depth. They possess a WHOLE lot of it now. At last, the full Cincinnati Reds 2024 Draft Roundup and Grades. Let’s get straight into it.
You’ve all probably seen my tweets, I was NOT happy that the Cincinnati Reds took Chase Burns 2nd overall, but I vehemently stated on X, and even in a few articles on here, it really didn’t matter if he signed for well below slot. He’s an elite talent if developed properly. I’m very confident he WILL end up signing well below slot, which you can see above, and I’d rate the pick an ‘A’ grade.
Chase Burns has an incredible slider that pairs well with his fastball. He also has a borderline ++ curveball thats currently rated 60 grade via MLB Pipeline. The devastating slider: easily his best pitch, a 70 grade slider, that is. There’s plenty to be excited about when it comes to Chase Burns, but the pessimistic Nati will hold his tongue for saying how he really feels about passing up on Charlie Condon here. I still deem it a mistake. It’s easy to sell yourself the pick when your guy was the #1 SP in NCAA, though. 191 K’s and 30 BBs in 100.0 IP speaks volumes to me, ESPECIALLY in a year where bats dominated, and pitching sucked. Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Lowder, & Burns…that feeds families. I think my favorite thing about Chase is just how much the dude LOVES playing baseball.
No matter how you feel about the Cincinnati Reds and their draft, you can say one thing: they’ve stuck to their plan. They haven’t gone off course at ALL. Whether that’s good or bad will have to be answered with time. In 2023, they went high upside SP1 with their 1st pick in Rhett Lowder, then went high upside projectable arm with pick 2 in Ty Floyd, then they dropped the bombshell on their 2nd round pick and took Sammy Stafura away from his Clemson committment by utilizing the money saved from signing Rhett a few hundred thousand under slot. They’re doing the same thing here again, just without the luxury of the competitive balance pick they took Floyd with last year. This pick’s grade:A+
Tyson Lewis is what the Reds dream about – toolsy, fast, powerful, jampacked with raw talent. Oh, did I mention he’s a shortshop? There’s a lot of industry folks that don’t think he’ll stick at SS but we have Barry Louis Larkin to take him under his wing, so scratch that. How about a video of him hitting a ball to the moon, would that interest you? Ok, here you go, below. Yeah, Pipeline, that ain’t 50 grade power. That’s 55 minimum.
Here’s video of #Reds 51st overall pick Tyson Lewis hitting an absolute cock shot into the night.
We talked about the Reds sticking to their plan. They did it again, folks. They love their Louisiana State University RHP so much they needed another one. Luke Holman got his name back at the National Tournament for team USA last summer after transferring from Bama to LSU. Luke is a certain 1st round pick if his velocity didn’t dip as much as it did this past year, but he followed it up with the best command he’s had in his life. This dude could for sure be a #3 in most rotations, and that’s where most think his floor is. He’s a big dude at 6’4″ and command is good enough to track him to the bigs quick, especially since many think he’ll be able to sit 95-96 with some big league regiment. Pick Grade: A+
Luke Holman made his name collegiately with his + command. His fastball is a perfect setup pitch cause it’s thrown for a strike a lot of the time. Luke hit 12 batters this season because he LOVES to live on the hands, then sets hitters up with his slider. He recorded 127 K’s compared to 33 BB’s in 2024 in 91.2 IP. I’d expect Luke to debut in Daytona at some point this summer. This is a very, very solid pick. If the Reds didn’t get Sirota at 87, it’d be my favorite pick.
Pick Value: $865.80k – Player Signed?: Signed 7/19 | Nati Sports Guess: $980,000
Contract Actual: $863,000 { $2,000 savings }
Another one of the picks that Brad Meador, Nick Krall, & Joe Katuska celebrate regularly. How the hell did Mike Sirota fall to 87 over bad luck, and a little bit of a slide in mechanics? Well, we’re glad he did! Mike had certain first round evaluations up and down baseball, some thought he’d go top 20, but then he started very, very slow in 2024. This was a series of luck, good scouting, and fate to get him here. If you read my draft post on here a few weeks ago, you’d of seen that I wanted Mike Sirota at 71. Getting him at 87 is that much sweeter. Pick Grade: A+
Mike Sirota is a top 15 bat in this draft for me. I don’t think he’s near his potential yet, either. He’s fast as shit, great outfielder, and he’s shown to be VERY comfortable with wood. A whole lot to like about that last sentence. MLB Pipeline has him graded at 45 power which makes little sense considering he mashed 18 HR’s in ’23 slugging .678 with an 1.149 OPS. In ’24, he had a .986 OPS, but started slow as mentioned. He had 19 steals both in ’23, and ’24. Perhaps what’s the best part to Sirota for me is his built in discipline which should carry him through the lower levels of professional baseball relatively easy. He never had an OBP below .411, even as a true freshman. I’m very excited to have him in the Reds organization, especially since my favorite publication, Baseball America, had him as a top 10 pick coming into the year.
Peyton Stovall is a very interesting pick here. There’s a lot to like, but a whole lot to dislike, too. It’s likely Peyton signs under slot value, and I think even though he was a top 100 player, he’ll sign well under slot. In fact, I may even be overshooting here with my $438k prediction. Peyton has played 1B/2B through his collegiate career with Arkansas & wasn’t up until last year that he played 2B. Pick Grade: B+
Peyton Stovall is known more for his IQ than his abilities. He’s a smart dude that makes few mistakes but he’s about as “raw” of a hitter as some of the HS guys taken in this draft and he isn’t known for his defense, either. He hit 9 HRs in ’24 but that feels pretty light for a guy that had first round grades everywhere out of HS in 2021 and a reguarly player in the SEC. Only tallied 21 XBH. This pick is definitely shooting for the stars and there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that. He is known to have one of the sweeter left handed strokes there is in this draft, and his bat to ball skills could carry him to the big leagues at some point if he puts it all together. Position wise, sure feels like he’ll stick to the right side of the infield because he’s not extremely athletic. As the video below states, he’s been hurt quite a bit, which could’ve altered some of his play and overall slashes.
With the 117th pick of the 2024 MLB Draft, the Cincinnati Reds select Peyton Stovall, a second baseman from the University of Arkansas! pic.twitter.com/fCPhrI2XY0
Whole lot to like about Tristian Smith. He’s pitched in some big moments and is a big time lefty, which the Reds love. He has 3 55+ grade pitches: Fastball, Slider, & Changeup, but frequently has no idea where they’re going. Command is bad. If the Cincinnati Reds can help Tristan replicate his delivery and start throwing more strikes, they’ll end up striking gold in the 5th round of this draft. He has a very unique arm slot that I think with some biomechanic training and an MLB regiment, he could figure out and throw more strikes at the end of the day. There’s some good film on Tristan suggesting there’s a profile there to have him make the big leagues one day, likely as a reliever. Pick Grade: A
Rounding It All Up
I only wanted to highlight our first 5 picks, but I also want to make sure everyone knows our full draft, so I’m going to list out every single pick and you can use this article to figure out if everyone has signed or not. This will be updated DAILY as soon as signings begin to occur. Usually all the Ps & Qs take place in late July.
Round – Pick
Player Name
Position
Value of Pick
Did Player Sign?
5 – 150
Tristan Smith
P
$448,700
6 – 179
Jacob Friend
C
$345,100
YES – $
7 – 209
Myles Smith
OF
$270,000
YES – $247,500
8 – 239
Luke Hayden
P
$217,400
YES – $197,500
9 – 269
Ryan McCrystal
C
$193,600
YES –
10 – 299
Yanuel Casiano
C
$182,200
YES –
11 – 329
Edgar Colon
P
$150,000
12 – 359
Will Cannon
P
$150,000
13 – 389
Anthony Stephan
OF
$150,000
YES –
14 – 419
Adrian Areizaga
SS
$150,000
15 – 449
Jordan Little
P
$150,000
YES –
16 – 479
Jimmy Romano
P
$150,000
YES –
17 – 509
Trent Hodgon
P
$150,000
18 – 539
Jalen Hairston
3B
$150,000
19 – 569
Owen Pote
P
$150,000
20 – 599
Mason Russell
P
$150,000
2024 Cincinnati Reds Draft Picks R5-20
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The Cincinnati Reds have been lighting up the transaction board over the last few days. From the Austin Slater trade to Rece Hinds making his debut – and Graham Ashcraft down again! We’ll go over these moves and what they mean for the team moving forward.
The Cincinnati Reds trade LHP Alex Young for OF Austin Slater and cash considerations.
Cincinnati Reds OF Austin Slater.
This is one of those “doesn’t move the needle” moves. However, it needed to happen. The Reds are clearly happy with LHPs Justin Wilson, Brent Suter, and Sam Moll. Alex Young was tearing it up in AAA, but he’s been injured more often than not this past season. Teams don’t typically carry more than three LHP in the bullpen, and Young is the odd man out – even if only by virtue of the fact that he’s been hurt.
That being said, I would have preferred a bit of a more lucrative return. To be fair, in 2022 and 2023, Slater would have ranked highly in BB%, Chase %, and Sweet Spot % – if he had enough plate appearances. Dude clearly has a good eye and good hand-eye coordination, but he just hasn’t been a regular feature in San Francisco. He has MASHED in AAA with Sacramento. Hopefully, he can make an impact with this Cincinnati Reds ball club, but I won’t hold my breath.
Rece Hinds is heading to Cincinnati for his long-awaited debut. Hinds brings a much needed power bat to the outfield that hits lefties much better than righties. He’s not having the best year, but honestly, sometimes something like a debut can get guys going.
Personally, I’m excited. No disrespect to the other guys that have debuted this season, but Hinds is no Blake Dunn or Jacob Hurtubise. He actually has several tools – including the power the Reds are searching for in the outfield. He’s slotting directly into the lineup tonight – no bench night(s) to acclimate to The Show. Look for him to make an instant impact.
The Cincinnati Reds Option Graham Ashcraft and Promote Yosver Zulueta.
Cincinnati Reds RHP Graham Ashcraft.
What a vote of confidence in Carson Spiers. Nick Lodolo should be back in Cincinnati soon and could start on Thursday against the Rockies. The Reds are ready to roll with a rotation of Lodolo, Greene, Abbott, Montas, and Spiers. Personally, I am a big Spiers fan. The dude can shove. I’m sure none of us expected to see the day that Ashcraft was only good enough for our AAA club. Expect to see the Reds move Montas and put Ashcraft at the end of the rotation with Spiers, but Ashcraft really could be the odd man out and find himself in a new home at the end of the month.
I have been saying the name Zulueta ever since the Reds acquired him after the Blue Jays DFA’d him. I truly expect him to be a staple in the bullpen and ultimately believe if he stays for an extended period, Buck Farmer is the casualty of his success. He looked solid in his debut on 06/25. Knowing the Reds, he’ll go back down soon, but I’d love to see him stick around. I also said similar things about Reiver Sanmartin, so we’ll see.
The Cincinnati Reds Place Stuart Fairchild on the 10-Day IL (retro to 07/07).
Cincinnati Reds OF Stuart Fairchild.
Not Stu! We love Stu at Nati Sports. Sometimes we scratch our heads at his decisions throwing in to the infield, but Stu will always be a plus fielder that absolutely hammers LHP. Not many of us were surprised to see him hit the IL once we saw the Slater trade. Stu still has a place on this roster when he’s healthy – he’s the ultimate 26th man. We look forward to having him back in the fold when he recovers from his back injury. He’s eligble to return after the All-Star break, but it’s currently unclear what the timetable is – if there is one.
Note: The Cincinnati Reds have not currently made a move to activate Austin Slater. We could see many things happen such as optioning Dunn or sending Hinds back down after a quick debut, but more than likely, Rios or Soto will make the drive back down to Louisville.
In June, I did one of these just checking in where the Cincinnati Reds were at. It’s only right, now that it’s already July (HOW TF,) to do another one, right? So let’s get into it. I’ll compile a list of where our beloved Cincinnati Reds are at when it comes to the playoff hopes that the math nerds model spit out for us. All of us like hope…sometimes. The ole Cincinnati Reds playoff odds. First things first, if interested, check out June’s post.
Baseball Reference Model
If you read last month’s post, you’ll know Baseball Reference likes the odds of these Cincinnati Reds a lot more than Fangraphs model, that’s for sure. In the last 30 days, the Reds chances have gone up +12.6%, still, even after a lackluster June going 14-13. Now, in the last 7 days…the Reds chances have gone DOWN 14%, that would be the most in the National League. Baseball Reference still believes the Cincinnati Reds are the 2nd most likely team to make the postseason from the NL Central; only the Brewers (99.5% chance to make post season) are better. Here’s a look at what their model believes. It REALLY thinks those 1 run losses (6-15 on the year) are going to stop, to say the least:
Not even because it gives us less odds, but because I think it’s genuinely flawed…I hate Fangraph’s model for predicting. It’s taking a lot of BS formulas that don’t really apply to this Reds team at all, and trying to compute probable happenings. Half the lineup has less than a year’s worth of MLB experience, half of the team is injured, it just seems silly. Anyways, here’s what FanGraph’s model is saying about us:
As you can tell, it doesn’t like the Reds at ALL. It still thinks the Cubs are better than us, and they’ve all but been telling people they’re going to be moving some pieces at the deadline this year. The Cardinals making the postseason at 42.8% with a negative run differential? Uhh…yeah, Devil’s magic willing, maybe, otherwise that team is an extremely aged shithole. Full Fangraphs model here
Honorable Mentions
When it comes to Vegas, there isn’t a single book that likes the Cincinnati Reds in the postseason for 2024. BetMGM currently has the best paying odds at +475. Vegas doesn’t like our Cincinnati Reds making the playoffs at ALL. The Cardinals, for whatever reason, are way more loved in that category. I wouldn’t bet that. Please consider bookmarking our website and joining the subscribe list!
I’m sure you’ve all heard of Bobby Bonilla Day, and if you haven’t, congratulations, now you have. The New York Mets are the famous team for July 1sts, for whatever reason, when our own team, the Cincinnati Reds have done the same thing. Not for just one player, but several… Cincinnati’s Ken Griffey Jr is one of them. Happy payday, The Kid.
The Cincinnati Reds finance department (payroll) just wired a bank account under the holder George Kenneth Griffey Jr a lump sump of $3,593,750.00. He’s the 5th highest paid Cincinnati Reds player this year, and has been for the last 5 seasons. The kicker? Ken Griffey Jr hasn’t played a single inning for the Cincinnati Reds since 2007. The Hall of Famer has just been collecting deferred payments from the club for the last decade. The Cincinnati Reds signed him to a 9 year, $116,500,000 deal in 2000 to bring Ken Griffey Jr back to his hometown of Cincinnati, OH. The backend of his deal was $57,500,000 in deferred payments with 4% interest, according to Tom Verducci.
But fear not, my beloved Cincinnati Reds fans – Ken Griffey Jr is officially off the books. Today, July 1st, 2024, was his final deferred payment. It’s over. Bob the Apple & Oranges man is rejoicing. Bronson Arroyo is another player the Reds have signed to a contract and agreed to defer payments at the backend of the contract while it accumulates interest.
Now, before we even get started, I think there’s plenty that can refute the logistics of this. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but if I was Nick Krall, I’d be in Chris Getz’s ear every single day. Let’s make the Cincinnati Reds a lot better by trading with somebody we pair well with, the Chicago White Sox, shall we?
“Eliminating Peaks & Valleys”
In 2022, when the Reds decided to rip the bandaid off and “tear down,” GM Nick Krall said time and time again the organization’s goals were to “eliminate peaks & valleys” – what he meant by that was simple: Win consistently, not in windows. Now, you do that by keeping your MLB roster stockpiled with young, controlled talent, but more importantly, you keep your farm system stocked with very young, projectable players. Going and getting these two would go against that, but we have our reasonings for doing it…
The Reds youthful core is locked in to team control through 2028-29 at the LEAST. Elly, Steer, Noelvi, McLain join that regard. I can make another post about how long the Reds have these guys if it’s something you guys would be interested in, comment below.
By the time the Reds would “unload” prospect capital, they should also be able to replenish it through the draft and international pool, thus eliminating any negative affects.
The Cincinnati Reds pick 2nd overall and SHOULD be adding a franchise changer this summer on July 14th, which should provide even more confidence in moving assets.
Making a case for Luis Robert Jr & Garrett Crochet
Garrett Crochet is arguably a top 20 starter in the game right now in his first year of starting, his advanced profile is absolutely disgustingly good, and you can make the case he’s still “raw” – he can develop better secondaries and be even better, it’s the only thing knocking his profile overall. Otherwise? ELITE. And folks, he’s been playing all year on one of the worst teams in Major League history.
Garrett Crochet advanced profile for 2024
Now, for as many kudos as we can give Crochet, there’s some unfortunate truth to the pudding: He has injury history, he is, and should be on an inning limit, and according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the White Sox are entertaining the idea of an acquiring team extending him beyond his 2027 expiration for a better return. Hard to blame them, because the two knocks I started this passage out with are very real. Inning limits are a concern, he’s never thrown more than 90 innings professionally OR collegiately – for a guy with Tommy John scars, that? That’s scary. But with winning comes risks. One I’d be willing to make. Crochet is locked into a very, very CHEAP ‘prove it’ deal with CWS, at $800,000 for Arb 1. He’s controlled through 2026, fitting a “window” for the Reds for sure. His last 2 are arb years.
Luis Robert Jr is someone who could have the potential to be a top 20 player in Major League Baseball with protection in the lineup, but more importantly, health. He’s not had either of those throughout his career for the most part. That would deem him a very risky player, but one, like Crochet, I’d take the risk on. I’m trying to put as much young, controllable talent as fiscally and physically possible around our Cincinnati Reds.
Luis Robert Jr’s advanced profile for 2024
Luis Robert Jr has hardly piled 125 ABs up just yet, so it’s hard to look at his 2024 season thus far where he’s not been completely healthy again and judge his profile. What we will look at, is the fact that the dude is MASHING, and mashing with zero protection in the lineup, homeruns. He has 9 HRs already on his campaign, and that’s out of his 23 total hits. That’s a welcoming addition to a team like the Reds that is struggling mightily with consistent power in its outfield. What makes Luis Robert Jr such an attractive potential acquisition is not his power, it’s his contract. It’s extremely team friendly. If he sucks, you cut him loose, and he has no control over that. If he’s been good, you keep him entering his prime. It’s truly a win-win situation here.
According to Bob Nightengale, the Chicago White Sox are seeking young, extremely high ceiling prospects for Garrett Crochet. So let’s get some of those in a package. Nightengale noted the White Sox were very hesitant to deal Luis Robert Jr due to his injury concern and his “slow” start to 2024, stating that most teams were ‘lowballing’ the team due to those concerns, and went as far as stating they’d hold onto Luis until the winter. Tremendous disservice to him.
Reds go for it all and land Luis & Garrett from Chicago
First, I want to say, if the White Sox prefer someone like Edwin Arroyo, I’d absolutely put him in here in place of Ricardo Cabrera. Also, what a terrible year for Christian Encarnacion-Strand to be hurt, because I’d put him in here with no questions asked, too. The White Sox need OF prospects primarily, some of which, we know the Reds do not possess, so that could be what gets this cancelled out. Otherwise, this is a very strong offer. Do you think it gets done with this offer? Chime in with comments below!
