First off, it’s DOLO DAY. The Reds lost a heartbreaker last night. To have the bases loaded, down one with only one out against a guy who has already blown a save this year and go down quiet sure hurts. However, the Reds have series coming up against Arizona (3-7 in their last 10) and San Francisco (4-6 in their last 10). A win to end the Baltimore series could be what they need to get back right.
Nick Lodolo
What else needs to be said besides: Nick Lodolo has dominated this year. 6 Orioles have faced Lodolo in their career – 2 have hits (Mountcastle and Santander). Owning a 1.88 ERA and 0.88 WHIP through 4 starts, Lodolo is in the 93rd percentile or better in Whiff%, Chase%, and K%. In fact, he’s well above average in everything except Hard Hit% and Barrel%, but it’s a small sample size – he’s given up 5 barrels. Lodolo looks to continue his dominance, coming off of a 1 hit, six inning start against the CWS.
Dean Kremer
Kremer comes off a no decision against the Royals last week in which he gave up 3 runs including 2 HRs. Statistically, there’s nothing special about Kremer. In fact, he’s below average in literally everything except BB% which he is in the 63rd percentile for. Kremer does have a solid Cutter that he employs almost as much as his 4-Seam Fastball, but his best pitch is his Split Finger – opponents hit only .056 and whiff 35.1% against it. Regardless, he tends to rely on his 94 MPH Fastball late in counts. Of note, he did get rocked against Milwaukee a couple of weeks ago for 10 hits and 8 runs (6 earned).
How the Reds Win
The Reds get a RHP right when they really need to get back right. Cincinnati needs to hit Kremer’s fastball and be disciplined against his off-speed stuff. His pitch chart doesn’t look great for most of his pitches, so as long as they don’t chase, the Reds should get some fastballs to hit (maybe barrel?). The Lineup isn’t out yet but expect Martini to be in it (eyes roll into the back of my head). The Reds need their lefties to get going, and Elly to keep doing what he’s doing – besides watching strike three down the middle for some reason.
The Cincinnati Reds returned home from a road trip out west and seem to have forgotten their bats. After a quiet display in last night’s 3-0 loss, the Reds match up against John Means for his first start of the 2024 campaign.
Andrew Abbott
Abbott comes off a loss to the Texas Rangers last week in which he was rocked in the first inning. The score lines have not been kind to Abbott this year even with his modest 3.27 ERA. Through 6 starts in 2024, advanced stats show a shift in Abbott’s style from 2023 – he’s giving up more contact, but the contact is significantly weaker. Abbott’s whiff rate is down roughly 7%, but his Hard Hit% is also down about 11%. The most concerning trend is a 8% decline in Chase% – his off-speed has not been well placed in 2024. On the other side, Abbott’s BABIP is his best of his career – even in the minors. The Orioles hit significantly better against LHP with an impressive team OBP of .374. Abbott will need to find his form and get back to hitting his spots with his off-speed stuff.
John Means
Means has not pitched a meaningful amount of innings since 2021 as he’s been dealing with shoulder and elbow issues – receiving Tommy John surgery in 2022. The Orioles Opening Day starter in 2019, Means is a career 3.72 ERA pitcher with a losing record. Don’t let that fool you – he’s got a serious changeup that gets a lot of whiffs, and he doesn’t walk guys – like at all. His whole career he’s been in the 90th percentile or better on BB%. We’ll see if he’s on his game for his first start in 2024, or if the Reds can get to him.
How the Reds Win
The Reds need to get to Means early. The bats were too quiet last night, but it just takes a couple early hits to get them going. Candelario is a career .375 batter against Means on 8 ABs. Only Espinal has also faced him – he’s 2-2. Abbott needs a quiet first inning and to hit his spots with his off-speed stuff to get some strikeouts. Pay attention to Elly De La Cruz against Means. He’s been batting better from the right side batter’s box as of late.
The Bengals entered the 2024 offseason frustrated and with a sense of urgency after losing Joe Burrow to injury midway through the 2023 season. Cincinnati made some shrewd moves to shore up both sides of the field. The Bengals applied the non-exclusive franchise tag to Tee Higgins and re-signed Trenton Irwin and Tanner Hudson. They also brought in Zack Moss to replace Joe Mixon and gave one-year contracts to Mike Gesicki and Trent Brown.
Cincinnati entered the 2024 Draft with clear needs at Offensive Tackle, Defensive Tackle, Tight End, and Cornerback. Let’s discuss how they did not only addressing those needs, but also grabbing the right value where they picked.
T Amarius Mims – 1st Round (18th Overall)
Mims is a gigantic human (6-foot-8, 340 pounds) with unquestionable talent. He’s a lengthy blocker with excellent range who can dominate at the point of attack and finishes blocks downfield. I like that he will get a chance to learn from Trent Brown. Concern here is definitely experience – Mims only started 8 games in college at Georgia. The Bengals are betting on his prototypical size and the flashes of greatness he showed in college. Mims likely won’t start year one and I personally felt this was a reach. The Offensive Tackle talent fell off a cliff after Mims, so Cincinnati clearly felt they needed to capitalize even if Mims is a developmental prospect.
Grade: B+
DT Kris Jenkins – 2nd Round (49th Overall)
Absolutely LOVE this pick! Jenkins was a team captain for the 2023 National Championship Michigan team. He was highly productive on a per-snap basis in college and started in 33 games across 4 seasons with a redshirt as a freshman. Jenkins has a bit of a small frame for his position, but he more than makes up for it with incredible juice in pass rush and an unmatched motor. Jenkins’ father was a 4-time Pro Bowler. Ultimately, Jenkins profiles as a legit replacement for D.J. Reader and should see serious play time as a rookie.
Grade: A+
WR Jermaine Burton – 3rd Round (80th Overall)
Joe Burrow smiled. Fantastic value. On talent alone, Burton was a borderline first to second round prospect. The off-field and maturity concerns stemming from an incident after a game against Tennessee played in Cincinnati’s favor to land a physical receiver with strong hands and plus vertical speed. Burton is an excellent tracker with the ability to get down field and locate deep balls efficiently. Look for him to contribute immediately as WR3 in Cincinnati.
Grade: B+
DT McKinley Jackson – 3rd Round (97th Overall)
Major reach here for a 5th round talent. Jackson played NT in college but excelled more as a pass rusher than a run stopper. Jackson is slow even for his position, stalls very often without a secondary move to get back into the play and does not eat up gaps effectively. However, Jackson does have quick hands off the ball and tends to maintain a low center of gravity that keeps him off the ground. Big developmental project here. Look for him to get snaps here and there.
Grade: D+
TE Erick All Jr – 4th Round (115th Overall)
His ACL tear in October and the abysmal offense All played in at Iowa lowered his draft stock. Talent wise, All projects as a second to third rounder with a high floor. When healthy, he has plus speed for his position allowing him to run field-stretching routes, and he has the lateral quickness to break off short-area routes efficiently. All’s tape absolutely bounces off the screen, especially when he gets the ball out wide. Look for All to contribute as an H-Back more than a traditional in-line TE.
Grade: B
CB Josh Newton – 5th Round (149th Overall)
For the true Reds fans reading this – think Ryan Freel. Newton does not possess the natural speed, size, or strength to excel in the NFL. However, he is a natural playmaker that finds a way to get to the ball with his excellent eyes and play recognition. Newton may never be a starter in the secondary for Cincinnati, but he will provide some depth and contribute as a special teamer. Really would have liked to see RB Tyrone Tracy Jr out of Purdue with this pick.
Grade: B-
TE Tanner McLachlan – Sixth Round (194th Overall)
True flyer, but isn’t that what most sixth to seventh round draft picks are? McLachlan’s best trait is his hands and he’s not physically gifted with anything special as an NFL player. As a TE, he’s profiles as a straight pass catcher as he has not really shown any ability to block effectively. Taylor and Tobin must have seen something here. A TE3 that can contribute in the passing game isn’t the worst thing to grab at this pick.
Grade: B-
DE Cedric Johnson – Sixth Round (214th Overall)
Solid pick here. Johnson tends to get ahead of himself and stare in the backfield too early, making it more difficult to shed blocks and make an impact. He actually had decent production that matches players selected well before him but that can be attributed to his extremely inconsistent tape. Look for Johnson to be a rotational piece somewhere down the line – not an early contributor.
Grade: B
S Daijahn Anthony – Seventh Round (224th Overall)
Working from Shepherd College to Liberty to a starter at Ole Miss says something about this guy. He’s got work ethic with an incredibly aggressive playstyle and above average ball skills. Needs to develop the ability to read the QBs eyes if he wants to play FS. More likely a Nickel CB and special teams contributor. Hard to fault picks this late when evaluators are just looking for salvageable attributes to work with but personally I would have rather seen Jaylen Key here.
Grade: C
Redshirt senior center Matt Lee prepares to snap the ball in the first quarter of Miami’s game versus Miami (OH) at Hard Rock Stadium on Sept. 1, 2023.
C Matt Lee – Seventh Round (237th Overall)
Lee moves really well and hits the second level with effectiveness, but that’s because he’s tiny. He has great technique, which is probably why Cincinnati drafted him here, but he does not have the size to keep up with NFL power. Lee will be fighting for his life to make the roster.
Grade: C
Ultimately, this draft has potential to go either way as a whole. Kris Jenkins and Jermaine Burton have some extreme upside. Mims should be very solid, but not right away. All Jr and Cedric Johnson seem like guys that could be real contributors. Newton, Anthony, and Jackson should make the team and contribute on special teams as rookies. McLachlan is a big question mark for me. Don’t count on Lee being on the 53-man roster – maybe the practice squad. In the end, drafting a first rounder that may not start day one hurts.
It’s time for our first look at the 2025 NFL Draft … and it’s only May! Where will top prospects call home, and who might the Bengals land?
Since it’s trendy to do a “way-too-early” mock draft, let’s have some fun predicting what may happen in 2025. Interestingly, this draft is unique in the fact that every team owns their own first round draft pick. This will probably change, but from what I could find, the last year every team owned their own first round draft pick was 1965 – when there were 14 teams.
The draft order here is mostly based on super bowl odds but adapted somewhat for how I expect things to shake out. No trades will be mocked just yet – maybe in a later edition.
2025 Projected Selections
1. New York Giants: QB Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
I expect the Giants to be really, really, really bad. The Daniel Jones era is coming to an end – good luck finding anyone that disagrees with that. Shedeur Sanders has the intangibles and leadership skills to make a front office salivate. He doesn’t have a cannon, but with his touch, timing, and footwork, he will be too difficult to pass up and New York will be a fun destination for Prime Jr. Don’t be surprised if Sanders is the #1 overall pick whoever is picking here.
2. Denver Broncos: EDGE James Pearce Jr., Tennessee
The Broncos picked Bo Nix in 2024, so they’ll pass on Beck here, but if they land the first pick, don’t be shocked if they pick Sanders and move on from Nix in a heartbeat.
Pearce Jr. led the SEC with 10 sacks in 2023 and racked up 15 TFL. At 6-foot-5 and 242 pounds he has some weight to gain, but don’t be fooled by the lanky frame – he bursts off the edge with speed AND power. The Broncos get our #1 overall prospect here.
3. New England Patriots: OT Will Campbell, LSU
The Patriots got their franchise QB (Drake Maye) in the 2024 draft. Now, it’s time to protect him with the best OT available in 2025. Otherwise, New England might look at Kelvin Banks Jr. here but his size may push him to the interior in the NFL.
4. Carolina Panthers: EDGE Nic Scourton, Texas A&M
You can’t ever have enough EDGE talent in the NFL. Scourton led the Big Ten with 10 sacks in 2023 and with his elite size, the Panthers can’t pass up the chance for a true disruptor up front, and an replacement for Brian Burns.
5. Washington Commanders: CB Will Johnson, Michigan
Johnson would have been a first round pick this year if he was eligible. The best true corner in the draft, Washington cannot help but pick up an anchor for their secondary, especially after adding Jayden Daniels in 2024. Travis Hunter is intriguing here, but Johnson is a can’t-miss prospect.
I expect QB Will Levis to earn some more time even if Tennessee is drafting this high. The Titans have too many needs to single one out and say they must draft that position. Expect them to take the best player available here – no doubt Travis Hunter. Hunter has plus size and insane athleticism with the versatility to be a top-10 pick as a WR or CB.
7. Arizona Cardinals: DT Mason Graham, Michigan
Arizona is handcuffed to Kyler Murray with his current contract, and I don’t expect teams to be lining up to trade for him. Their defense ranked 25th in yards allowed in 2023 and gave up the second most TDs (54). They will thank their lucky stars that a trench prospect as good as Graham fell and hand in that selection in less than a minute. Graham plugs gaps in the running game but has the ability at the point of attack to make any QB nervous.
Many have Banks Jr. as their top OT, but his size profiles more as a Guard. Regardless, he’s a very talented OL prospect. Versatility and value here. If Jefferson is gone by this point, this pick will no doubt be Emeka Egbuka or Luther Burden III, but we’ll assume Jefferson is still in town and the Vikings bolster the line up front for McCarthy’s presumed takeover in 2025.
9. Las Vegas Raiders: QB Carson Beck, Georgia
The Raiders are fooling themselves if they think O’Connell or Minshew are the answer. Either could make some noise as a starter but so did Tommy DeVito… Carson Beck is the best true pocket passer in the draft. With a gunslinger mentality and the arm to get the ball there, Beck has proven his potential with a stellar 24-6 TD-INT ratio to go with a 72% completion percentage and 3,941 yards in 2023. I really think Las Vegas is a candidate to trade up for Sanders. They might also take a liking to Milroe in this spot depending on his development in 2024.
10. New Orleans Saints: WR Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State
The Saints did not pick a WR early this year and have virtually nothing at the position outside of Chris Olave. They need a weapon for Derek Carr, and yes, it will be Derek Carr – see the $150 million contract he signed. Egbuka is a speedster with smooth route running skills making him a dangerous deep threat. Luther Burden III is also an option here, but I have the Saints opting for speed-size combination.
11. Seattle Seahawks: QB Jalen Milroe, Alabama
Geno Smith is a great comeback story. Geno Smith is not going to be the franchise QB in Seattle past 2025. The Seahawks take a look at Quinn Ewers here, but ultimately opt for the athleticism and raw power of Jalen Milroe. Milroe needs to develop as a pocket passer but expect that to be a point of emphasis with Kalen DeBoer at the helm in Tuscaloosa. Physically, there isn’t anything Milroe cannot do as a passer. Regardless, he will be the most highly scrutinized draft prospect in 2025.
12. Indianapolis Colts: EDGE Mykel Williams, Georgia
Williams played a lot with his hand on the ground last year, and still had 5 sacks. He’s transitioning to an OLB/EDGE role this year and with his age (19) and raw potential, expect him to be in the mix at the top of the draft.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers: WR Luther Burden III, Missouri
There is a really good chance Burden is not available here. Some team before pick 13 may decide they just can’t pass him up. The Steelers simply cannot expect to find success with George Pickens running routes all by himself on the outside. Unless they find an answer in FA, they could be going WR all the way.
14. Los Angeles Chargers: EDGE/OLB Harold Perkins Jr., LSU
Oft-injured Khalil Mack seems like a short-term solution across from Joey Bosa at this point. The Chargers nab a dominant pass rushing linebacker with outrageous speed at his position in Perkins Jr. He needs to bulk up, but we expect a breakout 2024 campaign.
The 5th player selected EDGE position; the Jaguars may be reaching here. Umanmielen was a 4-year producer at Florida who transferred to Ole Miss this offseason to find a defense to showcase some consistency in. He has the size and explosiveness that scouts look for, and he is primed for a breakout season.
16. Chicago Bears: OG Tyler Booker, Alabama
The Bears have an insane arsenal of weapons on the offensive side for Caleb Williams to employ. They need to shore up the offensive line to have any time or space to use those weapons. Tyler Booker is a road grader with a mean streak that earned All-SEC honors in his first year as a starter at Alabama. Plug and play.
17. Atlanta Falcons: NT Deone Walker, Kentucky
Maybe the Falcons will pick another QB, who knows. If they have their heads on straight, they won’t regret picking the best player available to pair with Grady Jarrett. Walker led the Wildcats in sacks and TFL despite finding himself double-teamed nearly every down. That kind of production from a man who plays at 346 pounds – think Vita Vea.
18. Cleveland Browns: S Malaki Starks, Georgia
Probably wishing they did not sign DeShaun Watson, but unable to offload him, the Browns opt to shore up their defensive backfield here. Starks possesses elite speed and natural ball skills that Cleveland simply doesn’t have on the back end right now.
19. Los Angeles Rams, QB Quinn Ewers, Texas
Stafford is aging, and Garoppolo is a journeyman at this point in his career. The Rams may not be thinking QB-first in this draft but can’t pass on Ewers if he falls to them.
Ewers has a big arm with some serious feel for the game. Ewers led the Longhorns to the CFP with a marquee win over Alabama and an impressive 22-6 TD-INT ratio and 69% completion percentage. Los Angeles could pass on QB altogether with the hopes of nabbing one in Round 2 – look at JT Tuimoloau here if they do.
20. New York Jets: S Sonny Styles, Ohio State
A glaring need at Safety forces the Jets hand here. Their defense is stellar but needs protection over the top. Styles is not getting a ton of first round buzz right now but expect that to change over the season. He has fluid hips in coverage and gets his head around nicely to play the ball and avoid flags.
21. Miami Dolphins: EDGE/DE JT Tuimoloau, Ohio State
Often projected as a top-5 pick, Tuimoloau needs to be much more productive. His size is prototypical, and he shows outstanding burst while routinely finishing plays. Miami will be happy if he falls this far.
22. Green Bay Packers: CB Benjamin Morrison, Notre Dame
The Packers have not addressed their need to find a solution on the outside opposite Jaire Alexander. Morrison is a true ballhawk with nine interceptions over two seasons. He is known for his soft hands and instincts in coverage while also reliable as a tackler.
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LB Abdul Carter, Penn St
Tampa will be sore to miss Morrison right in front of them, but they turn to the hole likely to be left by Lavonte David’s impending retirement. David signed another one-year contract this offseason and likely won’t be back in 2025. Carter is another one of those players that really could go earlier but won’t make it past Tampa. A downhill defender with excellent eyes, Carter can reach passers in a hurry and possesses above-average ball skills.
24. Houston Texans: CB Denzel Burke, Ohio State
Houston will have a high-flying offense but needs some talent in the defensive backfield after some young guys have underperformed their expectations. Burke fits the bill with a tall frame, long arms, and fluid hips.
25. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Tacario Davis, Arizona
With one of the most complete rosters in the NFL (if you believe in Jalen Hurts that is), the Eagles will be looking for the best player available that is not a WR – Tacario Davis. Davis is massive for a CB and plays aggressive at the line. Philadelphia would love to pair him on the outside opposite Darius Slay.
26. Buffalo Bills: WR Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona
The Bills are hurting for weapons for Allen to throw to. McMillan is a Drake London-esque outside receiver with a big frame (6-foot-5 214 pounds). Showcasing violent hands at the line of scrimmage and an ability to go up and get the ball, McMillan will fit in just fine with Allen in this offense.
27. Dallas Cowboys: RB Ollie Gordon II, Oklahoma State
There’s no way around it – the Cowboys need a RB. They may sign one in FA, but they need another long-term answer. They’ll get their guy in Gordon. Gordon absolutely balled out in 2023 with 1,732 yards sporting a 6.1 YPC. He has a nose for the end zone with 21 TDs last season and even showed some ability in the passing game. No-brainer.
Meanwhile, I would really like to see Cowboys move on from Prescott and find a way to draft Sanders. That would make for some really fun to watch football in Dallas.
28. Detroit Lions: ILB Smael Mondon Jr., Georgia
The NFL increasingly values speed. Mondon Jr. has elite speed for an ILB and often arrives at the same time as the ball in coverage. His ability to get sideline-to-sideline makes him a true missile across the field. The Lions take a look at WR Evan Stewart from Oregon here as well.
29. Baltimore Ravens: OT Emery Jones, LSU
The Ravens did not put much into reinvesting in their OL after some key departures. Jones plays with solid leverage, has long arms, and showcases heavy hands that he uses effectively in pass protection.
30. Cincinnati Bengals: EDGE/DE Jack Sawyer, Ohio State
This pick could go so many ways, but only one player fits the value here – Sawyer. Ultimately, it looks like Cincinnati may be without Hendrickson and/or Ossai after this season, so look for them to go EDGE/DE. Sawyer has an explosive first step and is an excellent bull rusher than occasionally showcases nimble feet.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: CB Jabbar Muhammad, Oregon
The Chiefs might look at Judkins here, but ultimately, they did not fulfill their need at CB this offseason. Muhammad plays low and keeps receivers in front of him. He brings much needed lateral capability to this defensive backfield.
32. San Francisco 49ers: DL Walter Nolen, Mississippi
What does the super bowl champion want/need? Success in the NFL starts with the trenches. Nolen was one of the most coveted transfer targets in college this offseason for a reason. Nolen showcases fluid movement off the ball with a propensity to never get stood up or become a non-factor.
When you think of fast players, you probably think NFL or college football. How couldn’t you? But you should stop…because speed kills in America’s favorite pastime sport, too. So much so that there’s several MLB players in the bigs for their speed (alright, their defense, too.) The Reds have one of them, Bubba Thompson. What isn’t exciting about a player stealing a bag? Or tagging up on a long fly-out to the outfield to give their teammate an RBI whilst they score a run? Speed has always killed, and the Cincinnati Reds have always had it, seemingly. Billy Hamilton. Drew Stubbs. A bunch of guys that never really panned out, but were quick as hell.
Would it come as a shock to hear they were one of the fastest teams in Major League Baseball in 2024? After all, the roster is built and fixated around speed. But are they the FASTEST team in Major League Baseball?
Elly De La Cruz steals 2B – Getty Images
Statcast and the Reds love each other.
One of my favorite tools as a diehard baseball fan is Baseball Savant’s Statcast – a real gem when it comes to statistics and more, and packed inside Statcast is a measurable labeled “Running”, subtitled with Sprint Speed – who’d of guessed it. Inside this metric, you’d find several Cincinnati Reds players toward the top. One I bet you’ve heard of quite a few times, the household name Elly De La Cruz, who comes in the 99th percentile for sprint speed. If you’re unaware of analytics, that means he is top 1% in baseball. Just under him? Stuart Fairchild joins him as well.
Joining them in this category are some great players like Bobby Witt Jr, Jeremy Pena, Trea Turner, and a couple super young, but going to be super star players like Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford just to name a few. One of the more crazier things, at least to me, that statcast measures is the time it takes a player to get from home plate to 1st base. Bobby Witt Jr does it in 4.09 seconds. Just absolutely insane as a right handed hitter. And would you guess, as a Reds fan, that Jake Fraley would be…quicker than Elly homeplate to 1st? I bet not, but he is! Rake gets to 1st base from home in 4.22 seconds, which is 18th best in ALL of baseball, and Elly de La Cruz gets to 1st from home in 4.31 seconds, which is 48th best.
So what team is the fastest in Major League Baseball?
If you’ve read this far, you’d notice that I brought up quite a few Reds players all being in the top 20, but are they the fastest team in Major League Baseball? That answer is…YES. According to an MLB based statistic Twitter labeled BrooksGate – they sure are, if you’re looking at sprint speed, which is the main category of defining “speed” in MLB. The next closest is the Philidelphia Phillies, who are extremely fast in their own right. Just behind them, the Milwaukee Brewers.
the average sprint speed for each MLB teams current active roster
The Cincinnati Reds are currently tied for 1st in Major League Baseball with the Washington Nationals with 52 stolen bases on the year. In 2023, the Reds lead the majors in stolen bases then, too. This has become a very big piece of identity for this “new age” Cincinnati Reds team – speed. Perhaps what’s just as impressive is their success rate in SB%, they’ve only been caught 11 times out of 63 tries.
Elly De La Cruz has been caught only 3 times, versus 18 stolenbases for him. Truly incredible stuff. To top it off, TJ Friedl is getting ready to come off the Injured List, and will be adding to the chaos on the basepaths. The Reds have won several games so far in 2024 based on the chaos Elly and others have created on the basepaths alone, and that’s backed up by their very low value for clutch %. Those boys are gonna keep runnin’.
The Cincinnati Reds have not fared well in San Diego in the David Bell era, but they’ve also not had Nick Lodolo when out there, and this time…they did. Not to mention, they got an early spark from Elly de La Cruz that also helped.
Nick Lodolo has a career day in San Diego
I want to use career day relatively light here when it comes to Nick Lodolo, because this is the stuff I expect out of him, and so should you, but he was THAT much better tonight. He threw so well, he was only 1 more strikeout away from his career high of 12. Darn!
On 4/29/24 Nick Lodolo made his Petco Park debut, on the 2nd pitch of the game Jurickson Profar took him right-center for a leadoff bomb that ultimately tied the game at 1. After that, Nick Lodolo walked two straight batters in the bottom of the 2nd inning, Xander Bogaerts and Ha-Seong Kim – the waters were a little rough, and then…the Dolonator came out. He retired every single batter he faced on the night since allowing only one hit.
ALMOST a career night…
Usually when you strikeout 11 batters and only allow one hit, it’s…probably a career night. Nope, not for Nick Lodolo. His career high in strikeouts is 12. So sad, too bad, right? Well, here’s another nugget for you: Nick Lodolo career high in swing and misses is 22. He met that mark again on Monday night in San Diego with 22 swings and misses on the night as well. I’m still trying to sit here and digest what I just watched into the late night. I mean…holy shit. That’s our balding ACE. Nick struckout EVERY San Diego Padres starter at least once tonight.
The Cincinnati Reds bats are starting to warm up. Elly de La Cruz led off the scoring with a MAMMOTH shot to centerfield in the top of the 1st. The ball whistled off his bat at 113.4 MPH and traveled 443 feet. You guessed it, a homer in 30/30 ballparks according to Statcast. Who’d of thunk it…
The Cincinnati Reds made a conscious effort to bridge the gap(s) that would occur from the impending sophomore “slumps” that are well documented throughout the big leagues year after year (Just look at Corbin Carroll so far) by signing a veteran that has penciled into many different lineups throughout his 6.038 service time career & made a big impact…until now. It’s early, but that $45,000,000 looks really ugly right now. Let’s take a dive into what we’re seeing, shall we? You might need a glass of bourbon. Or bleach. You decide. I’m trying to be as optimistic as I can in this write-up, though, realistically, there is nothing to be positive about when it comes to Jeimer Candelario April so far as a Cincinnati Reds player.
Jeimer Candelario press conference after signing a 3 year, $45,000,000 contract with a team option with the Cincinnati Reds
Jeimer Candelario’s historically slow Aprils
The not-so-doom/gloom
If you’ve been beyond frustrated with Jeimer Candelario, you aren’t alone. I keep finding myself coping left and right, telling myself this isn’t another Mike Moustakas signing, and the more I watch, the more it looks that way. But…and this is a big one, BUT…the dude has started slow every single year of his career. In fact, so slow, this is…essentially normal for him. In 148 games started in April throughout his career, he’s slashing .227/.306/.358/.664 (These numbers do factor in 2024, for what it’s worth, which has damaged this slashline a little bit, too.) In 2024, he’s currently slashing .159/.263/.317/.580 – So yes, a little worse than you’d anticipate, but still relatively on par for how he’s performed in the month of March/April.
Now, that’s just offensively… Jeimer Candelario has played a decent 3B so far, which wasn’t even really what the Cincinnati Reds signed him to do. He’s rocking a -2 OOA currently, but I think for the POs he has, that’s relatively decent. Noelvi Marte was at -2 OOA at 3B last year in the same amount of games.
The sky is falling.
Alright, this part is my favorite of the article, because here’s where I get to be brutally honest about how bad this dude has been. In 95 PAs in 2024, he’s striking out in 36% of his plate appearances. Folks…that is HORRENDOUS. There’s no other way to put it. He’s sporting a 61 wRC+ so far, which is worse than 70% of MLB starters through April. He’s currently worth -0.3 brWAR & -0.2 fWAR. I just want to reiterate: He’s making $15,000,000 AAV. There is no batted ball data to suggest him breaking out of this slump at all. He has one of the worst looking advanced metric profiles that I’ve seen in 2024. I hate to do it to you, but here…
Absolutely nothing, and I mean nothing in this profile suggests him breaking out of a slump anytime soon. Being in the bottom 30th percentile offensively as a player making $15,000,000 annually for the next 3 years is unacceptable by every count. The K% & Whiff % has me terrified he’s completely washed. You can’t be 30 years old and whiffing that much. This isn’t a rookie…this is an “established” veteran. A veteran that the Cincinnati Reds front office sought out intently. And I don’t fault them for it. Be better for fuck sake, Jeimer Candelario. We have baseball games to win and you were supposed to be an anchor.
Final thoughts from Nati…
I genuinely think Jeimer Candelario is hurt. I know he’s not this bad. I made the comment above – the Cincinnati Reds FO sought this guy out intentionally; he’s typically a 100+ wRC+ bat, would’ve (probably still will) fit perfectly with the bunch of rooks that we have.
If you remember correctly, Jeimer came out of the game in Philadelphia early due to “elbow discomfort” – I really, really think the Cincinnati Reds have information that we don’t, and that Jeimer is playing through injury currently. His swings look half-assed, which would aide the elbow discomfort. He’s found barrels throughout his whole career, and…in 2024 has found hardly any. His sweetspot (any batted ball between 8-32 degrees) is down tremendously. This dude is HURT and is playing because we have zero infielders left. He has to be hurt. I might be coping, but I’m certain he’s hurt. I don’t care what anybody says, he isn’t THIS bad. What do you think?
It was not clear what the Cincinnati Bengals would do in the 2024 NFL Draft in the first round – the Bengals had holes seemingly everywhere on the roster. After letting DT DJ Reader walk, many thought they’d target that position early on, and…they did. With WR Tee Higgins disgruntled after contract extension talks have stalled for over a year, and the lack of security for him playing on the franchise tag, many thought they’d target a WR early, and…they did. The history of Joe Burrow’s injuries, and many contacts, there was plenty who thought they’d take a big time tackle to help protect him, and…they did. This article will cover ALL of the Cincinnati Bengals picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, alongside video & grades of where they got the player at. We got you covered.
Round 1, Pick 18
Amarius Mims
OT, Georgia
Amarius Mims was quite the surprise here, I think there was a lot of industry folks who felt that the Bengals would’ve went with Byron Murphy here with the 18th pick had the Seattle Seahawks not taken him. There’s not much you can hate on when it comes to Amarius Mims, the guy is a physical specimen, an incredible human being, and a future captain of the team. Mims is 6’7″, 350 lbs. He had limited starts in Georgia, but the talent is undeniable. There is no denying his ability to develop into an All-Pro and continue to protect the diamond of the franchise, Joe Burrow. There shouldn’t be too many EDGEs in the league able to get around him consistently. Amarius has not allowed a single sack in 372 career snaps at D1 powerhouse Georgia. The talent is there. Frank Pollack will have to be in the lab to help him develop.
Place GRADE: B+
I believe Mims would’ve been on the board further down, potentially falling to the 2nd round. The development necessary when it comes to Mims is the reason I’d take it out of the ‘A’ level. He wouldn’t of been a day 1 starter, and I think we can all agree that’s probably a good thing. For once, I feel like the Bengals have REAL depth in front of Joe Burrow keeping him upright, and for that, I’m excited. It’s not a bad pick at all.
Film on Amarius Mims
Round 2, Pick 49
Kris Jenkins
DT Michigan
D
Michigan DT Kris Jenkins fits the Cincinnati Bengals roster in many ways. Never mind his raw abilities as a football player; he’s a great student, man, team captain, and more importantly…a National Champion. Those all fit what Head Coach Zac Taylor has fought to maintain in the locker room. As a player, though, and I love ESPN’s Matt Miller comparison, he gives a lot of Christian Barmore vibes. Jenkins is a genuine day 1 starter, some of which we’ll need at that position, and will really step in and provide tremendous value. He only had 4 sacks at Michigan, but there’s plenty of reason to believe he can provide some big time snaps and develop more into a pass rusher at the NFL level. I’m most excited to see him help stuff the run with the help of Rankins.
Place GRADE: A
Film on Kris Jenkins
Round 3, Pick 80
Jermaine Burton
WR, Alabama
The uncertainty surrounding WR Tee Higgins and the likelihood of him playing elsewhere in 2025, the Cincinnati Bengals knew they had to grab a starting caliber wideout before they started coming off the board. In comes Jermaine Burton, a standout at Alabama, a university that produces great WRs year after year. It feels like all signs point toward Burton getting WR3 expectations as of right now with Andrei Iosivas and Charlie Jones in on that conversation as well.
During the 2023 season, Jermaine found himself under a little bit of heat. The Tennessee Volunteers has just beat Alabama for the first time in a long time at Neyland and the fans stormed the field, some of which led to a confrontation between a Vols fan and Jermaine, whom he had pushed the fan sparking controversy online. The character appears to not be an issue, however, as the Bengals, a team who will gleefully pass on players with mental issues, took a chance on him. He has plenty of talent to make them not regret that decision.
Place GRADE: A-
Jermaine Burton highlights
Round 3, Pick 97 (Comp)
McKinnley Jackson
DT, Texas A&M
McKinnley Jackson will work alongside round 2 pick Kris Jenkins quite well. The Bengals have used quite a bit of picks on the trenches in the last few years. There will be plenty of competition there going into camp. I gotta be honest, of all the picks thus far, this is my least favorite. Even the phone call from coach Taylor to McKinnley was a little bit awkward. I got bad vibes here, but I hope to be proven wrong. He’s a 6’2″ 325 lb DT. 19th overall at his position this draft. I’m not particularly happy with the comp pick we were rewarded being spent here. Probably should’ve taken another WR if anything, or a CB.
Place GRADE: D+
McKinnley Jackson Highlights
Round 4, Pick 115
Erick All
TE, Iowa
Some may call this a reach, but as far as ceiling goes, there may not be a better TE outside of Bowers in this draft. Erick has dealt with a few injuries, but he has said himself that he will be ready to go “by camp.” He suffered season ending back injury and had surgery on his spine in 2022, in 2023…he tore his ACL. Erick is a Cincinnati area native, and product of Fairfield OH Highschool. A lot of analysts love this pick. I…also love this pick. This is the exact style of TE the Cincinnati Bengals need to deploy for QB Joe Burrow.
Everyone knows Iowa Hawkeyes Tightends go to the NFL and show out. I don’t have any doubt Erick will be the next of them to do just that. Iowa is not ever known for its offense, but Erick still had 300 yards and 3 TDs in limited play in 2023. He’s older, which in turn, means he’s smarter. He can block, run, and catch. Exactly what we’ve needed. He should have a great NFL career running routes and catching passes from Joe Burrow for his hometown team.
Place GRADE: A
Erick All TE Highlights
Round 5, Pick 149
Josh Newton
CB,TCU
Josh Newton is the definition of day 3 gem. He was a projected 1st rounder who had a relatively bad combine only running a 4.51 40, which resulted in him dropping, but the physicality and brain are there and then some. This is a really good pick and I’m stoked to have him added to the CB room. He will be a great depth piece, and likely a starter at some point in his NFL career. He’s relatively smaller at 5’11” so you’d hope he’d make it up with speed, but I think his brain is the most powerful component to his game. He has very long arms for a smaller dude, and is super physical. This is a great pick. He allowed only one touchdown in 2023. He’s also been a team captain several times, and a participator in the College Football Playoff.
Place GRADE: A+
Josh Newton highlights
Round 6, Pick 194
Tanner McLachlan
TE, Arizona
Tanner McLachlan could be an absolute force in this Bengals offense and push the hand of Tanner Hudson. He has great hands, and a great profile to be a TE2 on a roster. This dude is a FOOTBALL guy through and through. He’s not afraid to get lit the hell up at midfield but still hold onto the ball. He’s not afraid to hurdle a defender. I love this pick. He’s 6’5″ 244, ran a 4.61 40, and has a 35″ vert. I’m shocked he made it this far. Getting him in the 6th earns this an A+ grading. He also reset Rob Gronkowski’s Arizona record with 79 receptions. This dude is a big talent.
INDIANAPOLIS, IN - MARCH 02: Georgia offensive lineman Amarius Mims answers questions from the media during the NFL Scouting Combine on March 2, 2024, at the Indiana Convention Center in Indianapolis, IN. (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The Cincinnati Bengals selected OT Amarius Mims with their 18th overall pick on Thursday night. Bengals’ QB Joe Burrow will have another new BIG tackle to protect him and help him with clean pockets. Amarius was a 5 star recruit out of highschool and if he had more experience, would’ve arguably been the best tackle in the draft. Only JC Latham went higher than him at his respective position. Talent wise, it’s said Amarius is better.
Injury and lack of experience (only 8 starts in college) is why Amarius Mims fell down to 18, however, he’s said to be completely healthy and ready to roll. (He had an ankle injury in 2023, but was able to return and play the team’s remaining 3 games.)
The biggest knock on his game is lack of sustainability in the run block game, which is where Frank Pollack will have to step in. He’s absolutely massive, and shouldn’t have any issues adapting to the NFL game. When he’s been in the game, he had one of the lowest pressure rates in the SEC, and one of the lowest sack %’s. He’s a physical specimen at 6’7″ 350. Perhaps the more impressive thing about Mims is his lockerroom presence – he’s said to be absolutely adored by teammates and his character is round 1 material alone. That is everything Zac Taylor has fought to keep a steady trend – drafting great humans.
How does Amarius fit on day 1?
Amarius, as posted above, will show up to camp as a depth asset on the depth chart. The Cincinnati Bengals paid OT Trent Brown $4,750,000 1 year with a $2,000,000 signing bonus to play RT for Joe Burrow. With lack of experience, even in college, it’s a given that Amarius will sit behind Trent Brown for the year that he’s signed, at least in the tackle position. There’s rumors of the Bengals using a 6 man front with Mims, and with the recent Zack Moss signing, we could see plenty of pounding the ball. The talent evaluators love the pick for the Bengals, and it’ll be up to Frank Pollack to develop him further in the run game. He has plenty of talent. I’d grade it an A- pick.
Amarius is ecstatic to be a Cincinnati Bengal. He couldn’t even speak when Zac Taylor called.
“All I could do was cry” when Coach Zac Taylor called him to inform him of the pick. “I watched Joe Burrow at LSU wishing and hoping I could block for him. Man, I just look forward to getting in and talking with the Bengals. Man, I’m so excited. Man, I feel like a little kid almost. Getting to be around someone you look up to at quarterback.”
Today is the day! The smoke screen has appeared more and more every day, but that’s the beauty of the draft itself. The Bengals currently hold ten picks in the draft and four in the top 100. Due to their above-average free agency, they have put themselves in a really nice spot to take advantage of drafting BPA at 18. Sure, there are still holes that exist, but their gaps aren’t nearly as alarming with the depth shown in this draft class. Also, with so many teams needing key positions the Bengals could find themselves landing a true prospect in the first round.
When it comes to the Bengals, they have one of the most unpredictable front offices in terms of their draft strategy. Not many people could have known they were going to take guys like John Ross in 2017, or Jackson Carman in 2021, even Myles Murphy & Dax Hill came by a surprise to many. So take every mock draft you see with a grain of salt because they have their guys they like and try to keep everything air tight, and in house.
What routes could they take on Day 1? Well, there’s certainly a few. Do they stick with building the trenches? Do they plan to draft Tee Higgins’ future replacement? Do they finally get their TE that Joe Burrow can finally get used to? Duke Tobin, Bengals GM, has the keys to Mike Brown’s trust and if he wants to finally get over the hump and bring in the right guys to win a Super Bowl, this draft is about as important as it gets. Here, I’ll put myself in his shoes and do what I think best fits the Cincinnati Bengals.
At 6’2, 295 lbs. Johnny Newton is a game-changer on the defensive front. In his four years at Illinois, he racked up 28.5 TFLs as well as 18 sacks. Anyone who watched his tape can see the production pop off the screen. He has the potential to be the guy who the Bengals have been searching for to finally fill the shoes of future HOF’er Geno Atkins. There have been concerns about a recent foot surgery but the word is, he should be recovered by the time of the draft.
Round 2, Pick 49: Cooper Beebe, OG Kansas State
A very athletic and very violent offensive guard that could easily fit the mold of David Pollack’s “glass eater.” With a RAS score of 9.28, he could bring in the type of athleticism the Bengals need to make their offensive line more secure. There have been some reports saying that Beebe is the best true guard in this draft class. He is well worth the selection, especially with it being a make or break year for Cordell Volson.
Round 3, Pick 80: Ricky Pearsall, WR Florida
I was quite thrilled to see Ricky Pearsall’s name available for this selection. With 57% of his snaps in the slot, he has shown he can be the guy to replace Tyler Boyd on day one. But with his athleticism, he can also line up out wide and still wreak havoc in this offense. He clocked a 4.41 40 yard dash and has proven on the field that once the ball is in his hands, there’s always a chance the endzone is in play. I can only imagine the smile on Dan Pitcher’s face if the Bengals make this selection.
Jaylen Wright is one of the most electric RBs in this draft class. With his 4.38 40 yard dash, he could pair nicely with speedster Chase Brown. With the addition of Ricky Pearsall, this could easily turn into the quickest offense in football. He has had trouble keeping the ball safe in college but the Bengals could shape him up to be a decent NFL RB.
Round 4, Pick 115: T’Vondre Sweat, NT Texas
The 22 year old bowling ball out of Texas would be the perfect replacement for DJ Reader who just left the Bengals for the Detroit Lions. Some may say the nose tackle position could be a bit of a reach for the second round but T’Vondre Sweat would ultimately fill the biggest need on the Bengals roster to date. He would be a perfect fit as his size has helped him swallow up double teams throughout college. The pairing of him and Johnny Newton would give this defensive line the major boost it needs. Due to a recent DUI, Sweat’s draft stock took a hit, but I believe he still has room to grow, maturity wise. He is likely to go well before the 4th round, but for the sake of we deserve some luck, let’s hope he gets this far. The Cincinnati Bengals are not shy taking a “problematic” player and hoping they can grow in Cincinnati.
Round 5, Pick 149: Beaux Limmer, OC ArkansasÂ
After scoring a 9.80 RAS score, Beaux shows he is one of the more athletic interior offensive lineman in the draft. He showed out in the Senior Bowl against T’Vondre Sweat. He has the potential to be a true diamond in the rough selection.
Round 6, Pick 194: Caedan Wallace, OT Penn State
Caedan Wallace has 40 career starts and 1,276 snaps in his career at RT. There’s only three others projected to be drafted with over 1,000 snaps at the position. Experience, paired with his 8.20 RAS score, is just about the best thing the Bengals could ask for in a late round pick with the chance to find his way in a starting role later in his career.
Round 6, Pick 214 (Compensatory): Joe Milton III, QB Tennessee
One of my favorite QB prospects in this year’s class. Milton has a cannon of an arm and led a solid Tennessee team during his time in college. I believe there are some teams where he could potentially compete for QB1, but in this case, the only playing time I’d hope he gets in stripes is in Pre Season.
Round 7, Pick 224 (Via Houston): Brevyn Spann-Ford, TE Minnesota
A huge (literally) addition to the TE stands in at 6’7, 270 lbs. Needs to work on his blocking but with some NFL tuning, he could be seen as an extra lineman. Drops are also a possible problem but he could truly be a big help in the red zone due to his frame.
Round 7, Pick 237: Tory Taylor, P Iowa
In my opinion, Tory Taylor is the best punter in this draft class. I’d really like the Bengals to bring him in and compete with second-year Brad Robbins.
As the draft approaches, all eyes are on Cincinnati. With each pick, fans hope for the next star player to wear the orange and black. It’s an exciting time for Bengals faithful, and the anticipation is palpable. Here’s to hoping the draft brings some big wins for the team and its fans! This draft could truly either put us in a big hole with all the trade requests coming out and being made public, or it could propel us into having 2-3 day 1 starters, which is what this roster really needs. Regardless…WHO DEY!
