Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks – May 15th, 2024

Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks – May 15th, 2024 – Last night the Reds did what good teams do – they broke the game wide open. Greene was exceptional – 7 IP with only 2 ER on 5 hits and 1 walk. Greene had command and pitched very efficiently. On the offensive side, five guys had RBIs. The best offenses are ones where everyone is involved in produces. The craziest thing about last night – they did it all without production from Elly De La Cruz or Spencer Steer. Let’s break down the rubber match.

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Cincinnati Reds LHP Andrew Abbott

Abbott was solid last time out picking up a win against San Francisco on 5 IP with 6 hits and 1 walk. Abbott’s advanced metrics continue to tell the same story – he is inducing weak contact most of the time and his sweeper and changeup are nasty. Abbott has a +2 Run Value on his sweeper with a .225 Batting Average Against (BAA). His changeup has a +1 Run Value with a .154 BAA. Let’s not talk about the curveball. His Whiff % is down 6.9 % – a bit alarming. That would be incredibly concerning if not for the uptick his In Zone % and First Pitch Strike % – he’s going after batters and trying to induce contact.

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

UPDATE 3:32 PM – India is scratched with a migraine. Hurtubise comes in to play LF and Steer shifts over to 2B with Ford on 1B. We now know that the delay was due to a new setback for Nick Lodolo – a left groin strain. He was moved to the 15-day IL retro to 05/12 and LHP Sam Moll was recalled from AAA Louisville. Nice to have Moll back in the bullpen, but losing Lodolo for at least 2-3 starts hurts. Have to hope it’s not a major setback. Nick Martinez likely starts in his place in the rotation. LHP Brandon Williamson started a second rehab assignment today with Single-A Dayton. He left his first rehab assignment with left shoulder soreness.

Onto the lineup and we have to address it right away – a day off for Elly De La Cruz. Of course the coaching staff has a better idea of the fitness of each player, but you have to wonder about the decision here when things seem to be trending better offensively. To be fair, the bats got going without him last night. I assume he will be used as a pinch hitter or pinch runner at some point if the game is competitive.

Candy is hot (.385 over his last 7 games), and Fraley is raking RHP (well really raking everything), but the bottom half of this lineup is largely non-competitive. Need a solid game out of a guy that has been slumping. Again, keep an eye out for Elly to come on after the 6th inning in a clutch situation.

Arizona Diamondbacks RHP Brandon Pfaadt

A mediocre young pitcher with potential written all over him. Pfaadt is really only excelling at limiting walks. Everything else looks pretty rough. His sweeper was his weapon last year, providing a Run Value of +8, but hitters are mashing it this year. He’s giving up a .322 average to lefties this year, but righties hit .290 against him in 2023. This guy is hittable, and the bats woke up last night. Look for him to go after the Reds early with his fastball. He has adapted to the poor performance of his sweeper, bringup up his First Pitch Strike % by 10.2%. That’s about the only thing that has been better in 2024 for this guy. Our lefty heavy lineup should feast.

Arizona Diamondbacks Lineup Card

In very limited sample size, McCarthy is 7 for 13 againt LHP on the year. Newman and Marte mash LHP. Gurriel Jr, Suarez, Walker, and Grichuk all hit better against lefties. This lineup is practically built the opposite of what the Cincinnati Reds do – hit righties. It’s strength on strength today. Abbott will have his work cut out for him. Expect him to go 5-6 innings and give up 2-3 runs to this lineup.