In June, I did one of these just checking in where the Cincinnati Reds were at. It’s only right, now that it’s already July (HOW TF,) to do another one, right? So let’s get into it. I’ll compile a list of where our beloved Cincinnati Reds are at when it comes to the playoff hopes that the math nerds model spit out for us. All of us like hope…sometimes. The ole Cincinnati Reds playoff odds. First things first, if interested, check out June’s post.
Baseball Reference Model
If you read last month’s post, you’ll know Baseball Reference likes the odds of these Cincinnati Reds a lot more than Fangraphs model, that’s for sure. In the last 30 days, the Reds chances have gone up +12.6%, still, even after a lackluster June going 14-13. Now, in the last 7 days…the Reds chances have gone DOWN 14%, that would be the most in the National League. Baseball Reference still believes the Cincinnati Reds are the 2nd most likely team to make the postseason from the NL Central; only the Brewers (99.5% chance to make post season) are better. Here’s a look at what their model believes. It REALLY thinks those 1 run losses (6-15 on the year) are going to stop, to say the least:
Fangraph’s model
Not even because it gives us less odds, but because I think it’s genuinely flawed…I hate Fangraph’s model for predicting. It’s taking a lot of BS formulas that don’t really apply to this Reds team at all, and trying to compute probable happenings. Half the lineup has less than a year’s worth of MLB experience, half of the team is injured, it just seems silly. Anyways, here’s what FanGraph’s model is saying about us:
As you can tell, it doesn’t like the Reds at ALL. It still thinks the Cubs are better than us, and they’ve all but been telling people they’re going to be moving some pieces at the deadline this year. The Cardinals making the postseason at 42.8% with a negative run differential? Uhh…yeah, Devil’s magic willing, maybe, otherwise that team is an extremely aged shithole. Full Fangraphs model here
Honorable Mentions
When it comes to Vegas, there isn’t a single book that likes the Cincinnati Reds in the postseason for 2024. BetMGM currently has the best paying odds at +475. Vegas doesn’t like our Cincinnati Reds making the playoffs at ALL. The Cardinals, for whatever reason, are way more loved in that category. I wouldn’t bet that. Please consider bookmarking our website and joining the subscribe list!
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