Win streaks. Fighting your way back into the thick of it. Guys getting healthy. Pitching. These are all things that’ll raise your playoff hopes, especially after a horrendous May like the Cincinnati Reds had. So how much are the odds really going up, might you ask? Let’s check it out using Baseball References model.
Baseball Reference Model Explained
In Baseball Reference’s model, they compile outcomes utilizing a particular team’s performances over the last 100 regular season games and includes a regression to the mean factor. They’re based on standings on the last 100 regular season games (yes, spanning back to last season.) With that said, their ‘Most Likely Scenarios’ does NOT have the Cincinnati Reds making the postseason, ironically, as they have the Chicago Cubs edging us out by over 9%, which… is where the flaw to these formulas come. After all, it is a formula, and is strictly a simulation. These don’t factor injuries in at all, or things to that nature.
How the Cincinnati Reds Playoff Odds have changed over the the course of the season so far (Baseball Ref)
Just a mere 30 days ago, the Reds sat at an 11.1% chance at making the playoffs. The club played at a 9-18 pace in May, which considerably was knocking them lower and lower on the pole. Fast forward to June 8th, fresh on a 6 game win streak, their totals have went up way higher. 7 days ago, even, the Reds sat at a 14.4% chance. Today, you ask? They’re sitting at a 33.9% chance at making the postseason. Fangraphs’ model, which I personally despise, does not like our odds. But for perspective, they also believe the Cardinals have the 2nd best chance in the NL Central to make the playoffs. Baseball Reference’s odds have the Cubs over us still, even though we’re 4-1 against them on the season thus far, and that is based on the Cubs having an easier schedule remaining, which makes no sense. Formula schormulas. Whatever. Let’s keep winning, and have those odds raise even higher.
