St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds – May 28, 2024 – 5 in a row sounds good, doesn’t it? The Cincinnati Reds are hot, but I don’t need to tell you that. 19 runs in the last 4 games. The pitching? 3 straight games with only one run allowed. Tonight’s matchup is favorable too – the Cardinals don’t hit LHP well. Let’s take a look at what to expect tonight against the Cardinals.
Cincinnati Reds LHP Andrew Abbott
Abbott hold the lowest ERA (2.68) among Reds starters and actually has the second lowest among all pitchers (second only to Buck Farmer – 2.19). He’s also give up the most HRs on the staff with 9 on the year. Take a look at his advanced statistics and you’ll be very encouraged. Very encouraged. Overall Pitching Run Value of +7 (88th percentile), Hard Hit % of 31.2 (89th percentile), and xBA of .208 (85th percentile).
He may not do one specific thing significantly better than everyone else, but he puts it all together – to the tune of 2.2 WAR on the season so far. Abbott has only given up 5 runs over his last 4 starts. What’s interesting is that of the 17 runs he’s given up, 11 have come off HRs. In fact, opponent’s average with RISP is only .162. When he keeps the ball in play, he’s been one of the best starters in the bigs.
Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card
| Batters | Average | |
| 1 | LF Jacob Hurtubise | .250 |
| 2 | SS Elly De La Cruz | .245 |
| 3 | 3B Jeimer Candelario | .222 |
| 4 | 1B Spencer Steer | .231 |
| 5 | RF Jake Fraley | .281 |
| 6 | C Tyler Stephenson | .250 |
| 7 | DH Nick Martini | .186 |
| 8 | 2B Jonathan India | .223 |
| 9 | CF Will Benson | .194 |
I’ll admit that the jury is still out on Hurtubise, but I was probably too harsh on him when Bell started making him the leadoff guy. He’s done admirably for someone who probably should not have been expected to be in the bigs before September, much less be starting and at the leadoff. Candelario might be back – that is to what the Cincinnati Reds were expecting when they signed him. Steer is .286 in his last 7 with 2 HRs and 5 RBIs. Martini is at least providing competitive at bats even if his average leaves a lot to be desired. Don’t sleep on India either – .260 over his last 30 – he’s getting a lot more consistent.
It’s beautiful that I have not worried about seeing the name Mike Ford on the lineup card in a while. Yes, that deserved its own paragraph.
St. Louis Cardinals RHP Kyle Gibson
Gibson’s last outing was pretty good. No runs given up, but he only made it 4 innings. A glance at Gibson’s advanced statistics and you’ll see that he lives and dies by his offspeed stuff. He gets alot of ground balls and an average Whiff % of 24.7% but that’s about it. His xERA is 5.54 compared to his actual ERA of 3.81 and his xBA is .278 compared to his BAA of .240 – translation: batted balls are going right at guys, lots of runners getting thrown out, and he’s getting lucky. If the Reds bring the same bats they’ve been swinging, I’m projecting 2-3 runs on Gibson before they chase him out.
St. Louis Cardinals Lineup Card
| Batters | Average | |
| 1 | SS Masyn Winn | .300 |
| 2 | RF Lars Nootbar | .227 |
| 3 | 1B Paul Goldschmidt | .222 |
| 4 | C Ivan Herrera | .261 |
| 5 | 3B Nolan Arenado | .258 |
| 6 | DH Alec Burleson | .308 |
| 7 | CF Dylan Carlson | .125 |
| 8 | 2B Nolan Gorman | .213 |
| 9 | LF Brendan Donovan | .228 |
Winn and Nootbar are both on a tear (.365 and .308 in their last 15 respectively). Goldschmidt hit his 7th homer of the year off Lodolo last night and hits LHP significantly better than RHP. Herrera is back behind the plate after a night at DH and Siani gets a day off with Carlson in CF and Burleson at DH.
