Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburg Pirates Series Preview – The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates come into this series with an identical record (34-37). Both teams are only a game back from a wild card spot and the bottom two spots are held by teams at .500 or below. It’s wide open. Let’s take a look at how the Reds match up against the Pirates this week.
Carson Spiers will get the ball on the mound against Paul Skenes tonight. This will be Spiers first start this season for the big league club. On 5 appearances with 19.1 innings pitched, Spiers has a 2.33 ERA with 15 strikeouts. Not a ton of advanced data to dig into here, but the Reds have chosen to start Spiers over Graham Ashcraft who remains with AAA Louisville. Watch carefully because Spiers has a chance to make some noise and shake up the rotation conversation even more.
You’ll have heard of Paul Skenes right now even though this is the first time the Reds will see him. The most highly touted pitching prospect in recent memory, Skenes is on a tear in his young big league career. In six starts, he’s 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA and 46 strikeouts over 33.1 innings pitched. He’s a fireballer with a 99.3 average fastball velo. Really the only knock I have on him so far is the exit velocities he’s giving up (he’s in the 20th percentile). Skenes vs Elly will be a staple for the next few years, so I know I’ll enjoy their first matchup.
Lodolo is putting up ace numbers at 7-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 62 strikeouts over ten starts. The fact that he has decisions in 9/10 starts shows how consistent he is – he’s pitching 6 innings per start. Last time out against Cleveland, he spun 6 innings of 2-run baseball. So far this season, as long as he can escape the first inning, he’s been one of the best starters in baseball.
Falter is a middle of the road guy for Pittsburgh owning a 3.86 ERA and a 3-4 record over 13 starts. Being a lefty, he’ll have a bit of an easier time with this lineup. In his last two appearances, however, he’s surrendered 8 runs on 16 hits. Hopefully, the Reds can keep that streak going.
On Wednesday, Hunter Greene will pitch for the Reds against Mitch Keller. Greene is 5-2 on the year with a 3.61 ERA and 89 strikeouts over 14 starts. Last time out against the Brewers, Greene gave up two over 5 innings pitched. Greene is above average in Fastball Run Value (88th percentile), xBA (92nd percentile), Whiff % (81st percentile), and K % (70th percentile).
Keller is in his sixth year with Pittsburg. He owns a 3.36 ERA and a 8-4 record over 14 starts. Nothing really stands out about his game except that he doesn’t walk guys much (6% of the time). He’s your slightly above average, usually gets the job done starter. Although, last time out he did give up 4 runs to the Cardinals.
Cincinnati Reds Notebook
The Reds dropped the series against the Brewers, but the NL Wild Card is still wide open. They need to take care of business against one of their primary competitors for that spot. The offense has been putting more runs on the board recently and the pitching has been continuously solid. There really is some optimism in Reds Country. Just time to follow through.
As the draft approaches in July, look out for our prospect profiles here on the site!
. Let's take a look at how the Reds match up against the Pirates this week.){kind=link}