Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves – July 23, 2024 – Your Cincinnati Reds showed again coming out of the All-Star break how much they play down to lesser competition and show up against good teams. How does a team that swept the Dodgers and Yankees get swept by the Tigers and Nationals? A streaky lineup is how. This rotation and bullpen has been sublime, but the bats are far too inconsistent. Can the Reds build on last night’s performance?
Cincinnati Reds RHP Nick Martinez
When Nick Martinez starts a game, it falls apart in the third inning. It’s actually incredible how consistently bad he is as a starter against his appearances in relief. As a starter, Martinez’s ERA in the third inning is over 10. As a reliever, his overall ERA is sub 3.50. Looking at his stats as a whole is somewhat encouraging. He owns an overall ERA of 3.88. He ranks in the 98th percentile in Chase % with 36.7% and the 98th percentile in BB % with just 3.0%.
Control is not an issue. His arsenal is the issue. His fastball is phenomenal with 0 HRs and a BAA of just .200. Yet on his cutter and curveball, he’s given up 10 XBHs (3 HRs). His changeup has also been smacked for 3 HRs. He’s hittable if you get to see him twice and that’s why we start to see his ERA skyrocket in the third and fourth inning of his appearances. By the way, in the first inning, his ERA is only 1.69 and in the second it’s 0.00. You just don’t want to see him pitching that early because he’s bound to get rocked.
Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card
| Batters | Batting Average | |
| 1 | 2B Jonathan India | .275 |
| 2 | SS Elly De La Cruz | .258 |
| 3 | 1B Spencer Steer | .236 |
| 4 | C Tyler Stephenson | .238 |
| 5 | CF Stuart Fairchild | .229 |
| 6 | 3B Noelvi Marte | .179 |
| 7 | LF Austin Slater | .189 |
| 8 | RF Rece Hinds | .353 |
| 9 | DH Santiago Espinal | .219 |
Nice to see Rece Hinds again mainly because of the intrigue and the hope that he still has some magic. He’s been swinging at everything so let’s hope he can barrel a fastball. The Reds will have a tough time against Chris Sale tonight. Candelario gets a day off which makes sense against Sale. Jonathan India has been getting on base so well recently that I still expect some runs, but they may need a lot of them with Martinez on the mound tonight.
Atlanta Braves LHP Chris Sale
Sale has been one of the best starting pitchers in the majors for a long time… and still is. Owning a 13-3 record with a 2.70 ERA, Sale is no joke. Seriously, take a look at his statcast and your jaw will drop. The dude is in the 90th percentile or better in Pitching Run Value (22!), Breaking Run Value (1st in majors), Offspeed Run Value, xERA, Avg Exit Velo, Chase %, K %, and Hard Hit %. And then he’s in the 80th percentile of better for literally everything else except Velo, Extension, and Fastball Run Value. Not much to say other than you have to catch this guy on an off day or have your best guy on the mound against him.
Atlanta Braves Lineup Card
| Batters | Batting Average | |
| 1 | CF Jarred Kelenic | .248 |
| 2 | 3B Nacho Alvarez Jr. | .000 |
| 3 | DH Marcell Ozuna | .311 |
| 4 | C Travis d’Arnaud | .258 |
| 5 | 1B Matt Olson | .220 |
| 6 | RF Adam Duvall | .183 |
| 7 | LF Eddie Rosario | .186 |
| 8 | SS Orlando Arcia | .212 |
| 9 | 2B Zack Short | .119 |
Nacho Alvarez Jr. makes his second appearance on his career still in search of his first hit. Zack Short makes an appearance with Ozzie Albies going to the IL yesterday and Austin Riley hitting the paternity list this morning. On paper, looking at averages, this lineup isn’t scary – doesn’t really look much different from the Reds lineup to be honest. Ozuna is a factor more often than not and Olson is having a down year. With Chris Sale on the mound, 2 runs might be all this lineup needs to beat the Reds.
