The Cincinnati Reds made a conscious effort to bridge the gap(s) that would occur from the impending sophomore “slumps” that are well documented throughout the big leagues year after year (Just look at Corbin Carroll so far) by signing a veteran that has penciled into many different lineups throughout his 6.038 service time career & made a big impact…until now. It’s early, but that $45,000,000 looks really ugly right now. Let’s take a dive into what we’re seeing, shall we? You might need a glass of bourbon. Or bleach. You decide. I’m trying to be as optimistic as I can in this write-up, though, realistically, there is nothing to be positive about when it comes to Jeimer Candelario April so far as a Cincinnati Reds player.
Jeimer Candelario’s historically slow Aprils
The not-so-doom/gloom
If you’ve been beyond frustrated with Jeimer Candelario, you aren’t alone. I keep finding myself coping left and right, telling myself this isn’t another Mike Moustakas signing, and the more I watch, the more it looks that way. But…and this is a big one, BUT…the dude has started slow every single year of his career. In fact, so slow, this is…essentially normal for him. In 148 games started in April throughout his career, he’s slashing .227/.306/.358/.664 (These numbers do factor in 2024, for what it’s worth, which has damaged this slashline a little bit, too.) In 2024, he’s currently slashing .159/.263/.317/.580 – So yes, a little worse than you’d anticipate, but still relatively on par for how he’s performed in the month of March/April.
Now, that’s just offensively… Jeimer Candelario has played a decent 3B so far, which wasn’t even really what the Cincinnati Reds signed him to do. He’s rocking a -2 OOA currently, but I think for the POs he has, that’s relatively decent. Noelvi Marte was at -2 OOA at 3B last year in the same amount of games.
The sky is falling.
Alright, this part is my favorite of the article, because here’s where I get to be brutally honest about how bad this dude has been. In 95 PAs in 2024, he’s striking out in 36% of his plate appearances. Folks…that is HORRENDOUS. There’s no other way to put it. He’s sporting a 61 wRC+ so far, which is worse than 70% of MLB starters through April. He’s currently worth -0.3 brWAR & -0.2 fWAR. I just want to reiterate: He’s making $15,000,000 AAV. There is no batted ball data to suggest him breaking out of this slump at all. He has one of the worst looking advanced metric profiles that I’ve seen in 2024. I hate to do it to you, but here…
Absolutely nothing, and I mean nothing in this profile suggests him breaking out of a slump anytime soon. Being in the bottom 30th percentile offensively as a player making $15,000,000 annually for the next 3 years is unacceptable by every count. The K% & Whiff % has me terrified he’s completely washed. You can’t be 30 years old and whiffing that much. This isn’t a rookie…this is an “established” veteran. A veteran that the Cincinnati Reds front office sought out intently. And I don’t fault them for it. Be better for fuck sake, Jeimer Candelario. We have baseball games to win and you were supposed to be an anchor.
Final thoughts from Nati…
I genuinely think Jeimer Candelario is hurt. I know he’s not this bad. I made the comment above – the Cincinnati Reds FO sought this guy out intentionally; he’s typically a 100+ wRC+ bat, would’ve (probably still will) fit perfectly with the bunch of rooks that we have.
If you remember correctly, Jeimer came out of the game in Philadelphia early due to “elbow discomfort” – I really, really think the Cincinnati Reds have information that we don’t, and that Jeimer is playing through injury currently. His swings look half-assed, which would aide the elbow discomfort. He’s found barrels throughout his whole career, and…in 2024 has found hardly any. His sweetspot (any batted ball between 8-32 degrees) is down tremendously. This dude is HURT and is playing because we have zero infielders left. He has to be hurt. I might be coping, but I’m certain he’s hurt. I don’t care what anybody says, he isn’t THIS bad. What do you think?
