Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds – May 8, 2024

Friends, it’s dire. We’ve reached that point that the season could begin to slip away if the bats can’t get going. Somebody in this lineup has to step up and start a rally. Hopefully, and I’m not usually a silver lining guy, that started with the two solo shots last night from India and Stephenson. Several Reds in the lineup today are better career hitters against Montgomery than their numbers on the season so far.

Graham Ashcraft

What better day to pull it together than Doug Day? The Reds have provided Ashcraft with plenty of run support – 34 runs in games he’s started. That’s top for Reds starters this year. Ashcraft has been the beneficiary of a ton of ground ball outs this season. He ranks in the 86th percentile for GB %, the 76th percentile in BB %, and the 83rd percentile for Breaking Run Value. Basically, his fastball is getting barreled, but his breaking and off-speed stuff is generating whiffs and ground balls galore. Doug needs to hit his locations on his fastballs because his spin and movement is confusing hitters. In small sample sizes, the Diamondbacks that have faced Ashcraft have raked, and their lineup in general seems to have an advantage. However, Ashcraft has only allowed one Earned Run in his last 12 1/3 inning – he’s on his best stuff right now.

Reds Lineup Card

Jordan Montgomery

Montgomery’s advanced statistics are a mess. He doesn’t get strikeouts, but he also doesn’t issue walks. An abysmal 3rd percentile in strikeouts and 4th percentile in Whiff % – hitters are seeing his stuff. His only pitch with positive run value is his curveball, which he’s throwing about 30% of the time. He was also rocked for 6 Earned Runs last time out. If ever there was a day to get the bats going, it’s today.

Diamondbacks Lineup Card

Notebook

Mike Ford returns to the Reds. The Reds placed Christian Encarnacion-Strand on the 10-Day IL with a Right Ulnar Styloid Fracture as a corresponding move. The Reds made a move for Ford because of CES’ injury and wanted to go with a hot bat.

The Reds have Cruz, Martinez, Sims, and Diaz available out of the bullpen. The Diamondbacks only have Matt Bowman on full rest, but should also have Ginkel and Thompson available. TJ came back yesterday going 0-4 with a strikeout, but don’t be discouraged – it’s just his first game back from a wrist fracture less than two months ago. TJ also has reverse splits, hitting lefties better than righties – go ahead and book a knock. Lastly, the loss last night went on Montas, but don’t blame him. His outing was stellar – bringing up the average velo on all of his pitches by about 3 MPH. Frankie struck out seven and allowed one Earned Run on six innings pitched. Encouraging stuff from Montas – excited to see him for his next outing.