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    Home Blog Page 23

    The Cincinnati Reds Select Blake Dunn: What to Expect

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    Blake Dunn

    On May 29th, 2024 the Cincinnati Reds DFA’d Mike Ford clearing a 40 man roster spot to use however they wanted. They finally figured out how they wanted to use it: Blake Dunn Called Up. What can we expect from the Cincinnati Reds 11th rank prospect?

    Blake Dunn Background

    Blake Dunn was a 15th round (450 overall) selection by the Cincinnati Reds in 2021. He played collegiately at Western Michigan where he slashed .331/.428/.473/.901 and stole 50 bases while hitting only 11 homeruns. Blake has been a suberb athlete his whole entire life; he played all 4 years in highschool: Football, Basketball, Baseball & track. Blake has always been “undersized” standing at a mere 5’10” weighing 210, but his athleticism has never been in question. He’s quick, strong, but maybe his top quality is his passion for the game. Had it not been for injuries, he likely would’ve made his big league debut by now. He’s 25, and played in 4 minor league seasons thus far, including 2024.


    Speed (55 Grade)

    Going back to athleticism when it comes to Blake Dunn: Speed. He has it. It’s above average. And it’s been utilized quite frequently as a Cincinnati Reds farmhand. In his first fully healthy year (2023) he stole 54 bases between A+ Dayton and AA Chattanooga. 54/61. He scored 107 runs total, many accredited to his aggression on the basepaths.


    Power (50 grade)

    Blake flashed a ton of power, primarily generated off his batspeed, which he’s shown to possess a lot of. In 2023, he hit 23 homers. 8 of those came in A+ Dayton, and 15 of them came in AA Chattanooga. Anyone that follows ball knows the pitching in AA is 5x better than A+, so this is a very impressive feat. Blake had a .989 OPS in AA in ’23. So far in 2024, he has 4 HRs in AAA Louisville, with an OPS of .726. It’s no secret he started the year slow, but he has a .545 SLG% in his last 10 games with 2 homeruns.


    Defense (50 grade)

    Blake Dunn is an all out grinder. He can play all 3 outfield positions, and that’s where the Cincinnati Reds will have him playing as well. He is an above average defender and has a good arm. He’ll likely play a corner outfield position, but can play centerfield if necessary. He profiles best in left field with the Reds.


    Discipline

    You can really find a lot of similarity between Jacob Hurtibise and Blake Dunn – both of these guys never had shit given to them in the baseball world, none of them were top prospects, they’re just GRINDERS. The type of guys you want on the diamond with you at all times. Blake Dunn isn’t afraid to work a count to get on base for his team. He’s averaging a crazy .408 OBP as a professional baseball player. In AAA Louisville, even with a slow start, he has an .348 OBP. Getting on base is something you can’t teach. Blake does strikeout quite a bit, and I absolutely expect that in his game as a big leaguer, but it’s going to be followed up with a lot of other good things. He has a 24:55 BB:K in AAA so far, which, for him, I believe he’s better than.


    Blake Dunn Called Up

    We can expect Blake to play quite a bit in the days coming – The Chicago Cubs possess 2 southpaws that we have the potential to see, the Colorado Rockies have a lefty throwing tonight’s game, as of right now, the Guardians will have a LHP going in that short series with us as well. I think Blake will get adequate playing time, especially late in games and first off the bench type things.

    Cincinnati Reds Score 13 in Rout of Colorado Rockies

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    Cincinnati Reds Will Benson

    It was beautiful. Everything came together. Every Cincinnati Reds batter got a hit. Reds batters hit 6 XBHs. Will Benson, Elly De La Cruz, and Jeimer Candelario all topped 100 MPH exit velocity. The Reds set season highs in runs and hits and 7 batters had an RBI.

    The Reds endured a rough May going 9-18 on the month. Since the Reds were 14-10 to start the season, they have gone 13-23. Our talisman, Elly De La Cruz, has gone .182 in that time frame. It’s no secret that De La Cruz and Spencer Steer drove the team’s early success. Things are turning around.

    Cincinnati Reds Elly De La Cruz
    Cincinnati Reds SS Elly De La Cruz celebrates after hitting an RBI double on June 3rd at Coors Field.

    Personally, my eyes were drawn to the 109.7 MPH exit velo on Elly’s first at bat even though he was out. He hasn’t been hitting the ball that hard for a month. His very next at bat, he blasted a 100.4 MPH rocket for an RBI double to left-center. As we noted on X (Twitter?), this snapped a 0-16 slide. In the postgame, Elly noted that he has not made an adjustment to his swing through his struggle the last month.

    Jeimer Candelario followed up Elly’s double with a 2 run HR to right field that went 423 ft. Candy started the year very slow. We all doubted him and hated the move. He has been HOT going .310 over his last 7 and .278 over his last 30. That’s some consistency. It also speaks to how bad his start was that his average is still only .233.

    Cincinnati Reds OF Will Benson celebrates after hitting a 2 RBI triple on June 3rd at Coors Field.

    Will Benson finally got over .200 recently. He sealed this one with his 2 run triple to right field making the game 6-3. And he lost his helmet again. Benson also added another RBI with a sac fly to left field in the 6th inning. He ended the game 2-3 with 3 RBIs.

    Cincinnati Reds OF/1B Spencer Steer.

    Spencer Steer added two more runs in the 6th with a 2 run single. Much like Elly, he started the season off hot, but has batted .176 since the beginning of May. Steer never stopped hitting the ball hard, and didn’t strike out near as often as Elly. The Cincinnati Reds need both of those guys to stay in this form. In his last 7 games, Steer is slashing .321/.367/.357.

    This month, the Cincinnati Reds have series against every National League Central division rival. They also have series agains the Guardians and the Red Sox. June will determine the season. If they can come out near or on the better side of .500, its alive.

    Revisiting a Cincinnati Reds Trade – Tyler Naquin Trade 2022

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    Tyler Naquin
    Tyler Naquin

    Tyler Naquin Trade 2022: On July 28th, 2022, the Cincinnati Reds were straight up sellers. They were sellers pretty much right as they started 3-22. Anything a team wanted to offer on, the Cincinnati Reds were going to sell. That’s when New York Mets’ GM, then Billy Eppler, gave Nick Krall and Sam Grossman a call wanting Tyler Naquin, who in 2022 had a very mid-season. Tyler was slashing .240/.305/.427/.732 in the 1st half, he only had 6 HRs.

    They were all over it. They didn’t even have to “negotiate” – the Mets accepted the offer immediately. Some would say it’s a deal that was part of the reason Billy Eppler was relieved of his duties.

    Alright, I made that part up, the Metropolitans went a way different way with Cohen obtaining the team. I, Nati Sports, would actually declare this to be one of Nick Krall’s biggest W’s as GM when it comes to acquistion. Let’s see how these two prospects are doing…


    Hector Rodriguez – OF A+ Dayton Dragons (Reds 13th ranked prospect)

    Reds Hector Rodriguez

    A small, (5’10”, 185) but compact hitter, Hector Rodriguez was a mere 18 years old at the time of trade. Known for his quick hands, and bat to ball skills, the Cincinnati Reds Amateur scouting were all about him. He was signed by the New York Mets for $100,000 in 2021 and he has done nothing but hit since. Signed as an infielder, he is now an outfielder, which fits the Reds mould much more. He has plus speed, paired with extremely low whiff rates, he is almost certain to be a major leaguer one day. He’s 20 years old. I would imagine AA Chattanooga being on the horizon very soon for Hector. In A+ right now, he’s currently slashing .302/.336/.437/.773 which would be considered a “down” year for him. A lot of us are a little surprised he hasn’t hit more homeruns yet, but contact rate is still there, as is the rest of his game. He rarely strikes out, and the higher he goes, the more that stays consistent. He has 17 total XBHs in 200 ABs – only 4 of those are homers. He had 16 HRs last year in A ball in Daytona, which, the Florida State League is notorious for pitcher friendly ballparks, so that mark is impressive. There are a LOT of folks that believe Hector is the best “hitter” in the Reds’ organization. I would rank him 2nd, just behind Sal Stewart. Ladies & gentlemen, perhaps we have our own Luis Arraez?


    Jose Acuna – RHP AA Chattanooga Lookouts (Unranked)

    Reds best kept secret, RHP Jose Acuna

    Jose Acuna is a real slept on piece of that Naquin deal – the dude has some real strikeout stuff. The more I look back on this, what an absolute fleecing for the Reds, even if neither of these dudes debut with the team at the MLB level. Acuna is back from a minor injury suffered in April & is with the Chattanooga Lookouts where he’s now pitched in 2 games as the Reds are taking his innings very seriously and limiting them. What’s wild here is…Acuna isn’t even in our top 30 prospects (per Pipeline) yet he’s pitched great every stop he’s been at. It’s unclear if the Reds will use him as a starter or reliever, but he has thrown a LOT of strikes everywhere he’s been in our pipeline. I joked with the caption above about the Reds best kept secret, but hell, you can’t even find a picture of this dude online anywhere in a Reds uniform.

    Since acquistion on 7/28, Jose Acuna has compiled 58 BBs compared to 145 K’s in the Reds organization. So far in AA in 2 games pitched, he’s only allowed 1 run unearned in the 4.2 innings he’s pitched, and K’d 6. We’ll see how he continues with health in AA, but considering he had an 100 K year last year for the Dragons, I have no doubt he’ll continue to make strides. I’m not shocked he’s not ranked in our system, we have an underrated farm year after year.

    Was this Nick Krall’s best work so far?

    I think it genuinely needs to be considered. Compared to what was given up, and what was received, I mean Hector Rodriguez is a certain Major Leaguer, Jose Acuna has a ton of promise…this easily could be Nick Krall’s best work as GM of the Cincinnati Reds. Shoutout Metropolitans. These two just to get beat by the San Diego Padres in round 1 back in 2022. Tough cooking. So is this a Nick Krall win, or do we give the credit to the Reds Amateur Scouting team? Joe Katuska’s squad? Hmm…

    The Reds GM aka dork Nick Krall

    Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies – June 3, 2024

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    Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies

    Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies – June 3, 2024 – The Cincinnati Reds come into this series off of a series win against division rival Chicago Cubs. I did a full breakdown on this upcoming series, so go check that out too. Looking forward to tonight, the Reds will face Ryan Feltner with Andrew Abbott on the mound. The Reds have an advantage this series, especially with their momentum and desperately need to carry it forward into the next series against the Cubs again. Let’s break down the matchup for tonight.

    Cincinnati Reds LHP Andrew Abbott

    Cincinnati Reds Pitcher Andrew Abbott
    Cincinnati Reds LHP Andrew Abbott.

    Abbott had a rough time out last week against the St Louis Cardinals giving up 6 runs over 6 innings with 2 HRs. Plain and simple, Abbott’s issue is the homers. I noted last time he was on the bump that a noticeable majority of his runs surrendered have been to the long ball this season. Well, thank goodness the Rockies don’t hit an exorbitant amount of HRs – ranking 26th in the bigs.

    Abbott’s advanced profile will drive you crazy. He’s not doing any one thing particularly well. He’s just doing everything… mid. What is wild is, given his HR issue, he actually ranks really high for Hard Hit % (86th percentile). If you break down the situations where he has given up runs, it becomes a little more clear. Abbott is dominant until he’s not. He clamps down lineups but then leaves a fastball over the heart of the plate or – as he has done 4 times now – hangs a sweeper gift that gets a ride to the stands.

    Look for Abbott to take it a little slower this time out. The Rockies may be a bad team, but they have a few guys that can really hit. I highlighted Ryan McMahon as the guy to watch out for and you can read exactly why here. I’ll say to expect Abbott to surrender 2-3 runs on a homer today and pray I’m wrong.

    Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

    BattersAverage
    1CF TJ Friedl.167
    2SS Elly De La Cruz.233
    33B Jeimer Candelario.229
    41B Spencer Steer.234
    5RF Jake Fraley.295
    6C Tyler Stephenson.248
    7DH Nick Martini.200
    82B Jonathan India.228
    9LF Will Benson.197

    The usual for these Cincinnati Reds. Bell really isn’t the guy to mix things up due to performance. As evidenced by the fact that Fraley and India are on fire and are not moving up the lineup. Maybe there is something to a guy performing in a certain spot.

    Colorado Rockies RHP Ryan Feltner

    Colorado Rockies RHP Ryan Feltner

    Plain and simple, the Cincinnati Reds should fleece this guy. 6 starts on the season, he’s surrendered 5+ runs. The Reds hit RHP well. This guys offspeed and breaking stuff is so hittable, Benson may even see enough beach balls that he blasts one into the stands. I can’t make this up – the batting average on his slider is .347 and for his changeup its .400! His fastball gets hit to the tune of a .264 average. Everything this guy throw is hittable.

    What Feltner does do well is limit walks. He’s in the 70th percentile with only a 6.8 BB %. He also limits exit velocity with an average exit velo of 87.6 MPH – good enough for the 76th percentile.

    Colorado Rockies Lineup Card

    BattersAverage
    1SS Ezequiel Tovar.297
    2Brendan Rodgers.265
    3C Elias Diaz.301
    41B Elehuris Montero.216
    5CF Brenton Doyle.260
    6DH Jacob Stallings.319
    7LF Sean Bouchard.206
    8RF Hunter Goodman.189
    93B Alan Trejo.108

    The Rockies don’t seem to be taking this one too seriously. McMahon is off and I’m sure Abbott is celebrating on the inside. The Rockies will play their three worst hitters – Goodman, Trejo, and Bouchard. Interesting to see.

    Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies – Series Preview

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    Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies

    Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies – Series Preview – The Cincinnati Reds won a series! Against a division rival too. Even the game that they lost was competitive, so it really could have been a sweep. The Reds need to carry forward that momentum to Colorado. Cincinnati faces a 3 game set against a very poor Rockies team in Denver. The Rockies will run out three starters that wouldn’t make Cincinnati’s roster. Let’s break down how the Cincinnati Reds match up against the Colorado Rockies.

    Cincinnati Reds Notebook

    Cincinnati Reds infielders Elly De La Cruz, Jonathan India, Spencer Steer, and Jeimer Candelario gather near the mound in between innings at Great American Ballpark.
    Cincinnati Reds infielders Elly De La Cruz, Jonathan India, Spencer Steer, and Jeimer Candelario gather near the mound in between innings at Great American Ballpark.

    The Cincinnati Reds will run out Andrew Abbott followed by Frankie Montas and then Graham Ashcraft on Wednesday to wrap up the series. With Lodolo back in the fold, its crazy to think these three are the bottom three of the rotation. The Cincinnati Reds pitching staff has been incredible – at least compared to previous years.

    That being said, Abbot is coming in off a rough start in which he gave up 6 to the Cardinals. Montas put in a solid 6 innings of 3 run ball. Ashcraft gave up 3 over 5 innings of work last time out against the Cubs. Overall, it works out directly in the Reds favor that these three are the ones to face the Rockies. Greene and Lodolo will be available against the Cubs in the next series.

    The bats awoke against the Cubs over the weekend. The Cincinnati Reds scored 5 runs in each ballgame. That kind of hitting will win you 90 games a season. Let’s hope the lineup stays awake. I noted yesterday that TJ was due to breakout and then he hit a 3 run bomb off Steele. Look for him to keep getting on base. India is batting .300 over his last 7. Fraley is hitting a monstrous .385 over his last 7 and he gets to feast on some struggling starters coming up – two are RHP. Be patient with Elly – hopefully a change of scenery and the Denver air will produce a moonshot.

    Colorado Rockies Notebook

    The Colorado Rockies celebrate after a victory.

    The Rockies will run out Ryan Feltner tonight, Ty Blach tomorrow, and Dakota Hudson on Wednesday. I will cover each of these guys more in depth in the game previews, but its rough. Hudson is the only one that could sniff a shot on the Reds rotation. Feltner has 6 starts that he has given up 5+ runs on the season. Big yikes. Their team ERA is a league worst – 5.18.

    The Rockies do have some good hitters though. Ezequiel Tovar, Brendan Rodgers, Ryan McMahon, Elias Diaz, and Brenton Doyle are all hitting .260+ with full workloads this year. Their team batting average of .247 is actually 10th best in the bigs. They do not hit a lot of homers though ranking 26th in that category with 49 on the season – more than the Reds mind you. McMahon has 10 homers on the season.

    Colorado Rockies Highlighted Hitter Ryan McMahon

    Colorado Rockies 3B Ryan McMahon flips his bat and points after launching a Home Run agains the Tampa Bay Rays.

    McMahon has been a menace this year. Slashing .284/.371/.470 and smashing 10 homers on the year, McMahon is the guy to watch out for on this Colorado ball club. He’s actually on a bit of a skid right now, but that just shows how hot he has been to this point. He bats left but feasts on LHP, so Andrew Abbott will need to watch out since homers are his main problem.

    McMahon’s statcast is a bit scary for teams getting ready to pitch to him. He ranks in the 75th percentile or better in Batting Run Value (88th), xBA (78th), xSLG (86th), Average Exit Velocity (96th – 93.5 MPH), Barrel % (88th), Hard Hit % (97th), and BB % (83rd). Those are some wildly consistent numbers. He hits the ball well and he hits the ball HARD. He’s also patient and walks a ton. This guy is not an easy out.

    Predicting what the Cincinnati Bengals Ja’Marr Chase contract will look like

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    Ja'marr Chase extension prediction
    Ja'Marr Chase

    Ja’Marr Chase Extension Prediction On 6/3/24, Justin Jefferson signed a MEGA deal to stay with the Minnesota Vikings. We all knew that Justin Jefferson would reset the WR market in a big way and would be the first WR off the board to sign an extension in “MEGA” territory and he just did it today. The Vikings will pay him $110,000,000 GUARANTEED, and according to Ian Rapoport, the total deal is worth 4 years, $35m AAV, $140M if it’s all played out. But this is about our beloved Ja’Marr Chase, Justin just set the market for us, let’s get into it with Ja’Marr Chase Extension Prediction…

    Minnesota Vikings Justin Jefferson #18

    Ja’Marr Chase isn’t the only Cincinnati Bengals receiver currently waiting on a contract, Tee Higgins is also. Tee won’t even be a thought now, though he likely wasn’t even before Justin reset the market, because Ja’Marr is going to get every bit of what Justin just got, probably even more. In fact, he’s on record stating that he won’t sign until Justin does, this, obviously, so he can outdo him. They’re BFFs. Who doesn’t love a little friendly competition of who can get a bigger BAG?

    There IS reason to worry, contrary to other belief…

    When it comes to Ja’Marr Chase signing an extension, there is certainly reason to believe in a halt. I don’t think it’ll come quick, and the reason? Ja’Marr Chase wants to be paid up front. He’s already said that. And when a player declares that, they typically mean it. Now, here’s the issue: The Cincinnati Bengalsthey don’t pay players up front. It wasn’t until recently where they paid Joe Burrow $219M guaranteed with a $45m signing bonus. Do the Bengals like Ja’Marr the same as Joe? Probably not…but they should. Especially if they aren’t going to pay Tee. We’re reaching levels, now, where it’s going to come down to paying one top WR, and the rest will be on minimums, otherwise teams won’t be able to afford them anymore with the cap. $110M guaranteed for a receiver is ludicrous. I mean what in the hell.

    Do the small market Cincinnati Bengals even have the cash for Ja’Marr Chase after Joe Burrow’s extension?

    That remains to be seen. The Bengals are as tightlipped as anyone out there. What I can say is this…they’ve went balls to the wall in racking up sponsorships. They’re selling gate names, for crying out loud. But look, boys and girls, the Cincinnati Bengals are THE smallest market, they’re valued dead LAST according to Forbes in franchise value. 32/32. They’re worth an estimated $4B, and I’m sure they can continue to borrow against their valuation as most teams do, but doesn’t it get a little scary when hearing they could tie up almost $320m GUARANTEED to two players? It feels terrifying to me. Especially when you look into the stadium we play at, the owner we have…ahhhhh.

    Ja’Marr Chase Extension Prediction

    As most know, and as you just read, the Bengals simply don’t give out frontloaded guaranteed contracts. They’re going to have to go against their ideologies again, much like they did for Burrow, in order to land Ja’Marr Chase. And as much dooming as I’ve done here, I don’t think twice about it happening. I don’t. It’s just a matter of when. I REALLY do not anticipate it being this year. They have him, technically, under contract for 2 more seasons. They’re notorious for holding out, doesn’t matter who the f you are. But we can guarantee one thing, his deal will look something like (Remember, this is strictly a guess using sentiment and what Jefferson just got) – it’s entirely possible Ja’Marr will be more team friendly, especially since he’s been vocal about wanting Tee to stay with the Bengals) – We believe Ja’Marr is going to go set the record, and at a later time, restructure his deal to earn even more $ and help alleviate the cap.

    4 years, $150m, $37.5 AAV, $117M Guaranteed $40M signing bonus to alleviate cap

    Ja'marr Chase extension prediction
    Ja’Marr Chase

    Ladies & gentleman, the two highest paid Cincinnati Bengals in history. Just get them a Super Bowl win before Mike Brown croaks, please. Thanks. Also, make sure we have a productive Offensive Line. Thanks again.

    Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs – June 2, 2024

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    Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs

    Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs – June 2, 2024 – Last night was a heartbreaker for those of use who stayed up. Up by 4 early, giving up a grand slam, then Sims serving it up on a platter for Swanson to take the victory. It really felt like last night was the game to take the series and get things going. Let’s see how your Cincinnati Reds match up in today’s day game in Chicago.

    Cincinnati Reds LHP Nick Lodolo

    Cincinnati Reds LHP Nick Lodolo.
    Cincinnati Reds LHP Nick Lodolo.

    In the same amount of starts and just a bit more innings pitched than this point last season, Lodolo has less than half the ERA and almost 1 less WHIP. We’re finally seeing the real Nick Lodolo – an ace. He’s had a rough outing or two, but outside of getting knocked around early a couple of times, he has been dominant. Absolutely dominant.

    He’s above average in every advanced metric except fastball velo. He has an 80th+ percentile rank in xERA, xBA, Chase %, Whiff %, K % and BB %. He’s an Ace ladies and gentlemen. All 4 homers he’s surrendered this year have been on his fastball though. His curveball is nasty – giving him a 3 Pitching Run Value, and his sinker is phenomenal when it’s on. Lodolo has the stuff to shut down any lineup.

    Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

    BattersAverage
    1CF TJ Friedl.161
    2SS Elly De La Cruz.238
    33B Jeimer Candelario.223
    41B Spencer Steer.228
    5DH Jake Fraley.278
    6C Tyler Stephenson.248
    7LF Jacob Hurtubise.212
    82B Jonathan India.230
    9RF Will Benson.199

    TJ is going to break out soon. Hopefully it’s tonight, but he’s seeming more and more settled in. Elly needs to break out of his cold spell. .186 over his last 15 is not going to do it. Candelario and Stephenson have cooled down too which does not bode well. India and Benson, however, have both played very well over their last 7 – .286 and .364 respectively. Benson is still striking out a ridiculous amount, but he’s getting on base too. A team that regularly starts the two guys with the most strikeouts in the league (Elly and Benson) will find a hard time getting anything going.

    Chicago Cubs RHP Ben Brown

    Chicago Cubs RHP Ben Brown.

    Brown will be making his 14th career appearance in the bigs today. He’s found some solid early success in his young career to the tune of a 2.72 ERA. Notice I said appearance earlier – 8 of his appearances have been in relief. He has gone 6 innings once and went 7 his last time out in a phenomenal start against Milwaukee with no runs surrendered. He’s given up 11 runs across those appearances, but 6 were surrendered in his big league debut on March 30th against the Rangers.

    He’s been on fire since, logging 6 scoreless appearances. As expected with such a young career, his advanced statistics are all over the place. He has a league worst average exit velocity of 93.4. Yet his pitching run value is 8. Wild. His batted ball profile shows that balls just get hit right at guys. All the time. He also strikes out quite a bit of batters – 29.9% of batters faced. Brown is a two pitch pitcher – a four seam and knuckle curve. His fastball is average, but his curve has a .120 batting average against.

    Chicago Cubs Lineup Card

    BattersAverage
    12B Nico Hoerner.259
    2RF Seiya Suzuki.265
    3CF Cody Bellinger.254
    4DH Christopher Morel.198
    51B Patrick Wisdom.214
    6LF Ian Happ.219
    7SS Dansby Swanson.208
    83B David Bote
    9C Miguel Amaya.191

    Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs – June 1st, 2024

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    Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs

    Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs today – June 1st, 2024 – It is JUNE, my dudes & dudettes. That means the schedule is set to open up a little more, that means Noelvi Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand are set to be back, that means the weather gets warmer and more homeruns are hit, that means…the Reds play a LOT of divisional games coming up and ground can be made up. But they have to keep winning. Shocker, right?

    Cincinnati Reds RHP Hunter Greene

    Cincinnati Reds RHP Hunter Greene

    Hunter Greene has been an entirely new pitcher in 2024, and that shouldn’t scare anybody, he’s been in his BAG. He mowed down the Dodgers lineup although he wasn’t even as efficient as he’s been on the year, only throwing 68 out of 107 of his pitches for strikes. He held the Doyers to 5 hits and 1 run through 6 innings pitch. On the year, he currently sits at 2.3 brWAR, AKA the Cincinnati Reds most valuable player as of June 1st, just in front of Elly de La Cruz. Hunter is 90th percentile or above in xERA & xBA and fastball velo. Considering he’s still learning as he goes, this is incredible. His fastball run value is also in the 97th percentile, however, his breaking and offspeed value are quite worse, and in the bottom 30 percentile in all of MLB. The kid just needs to keep polishing his secondaries, and this is a genuine front line ACE we have and have prayed for. I think he is due for a bad game, it’s going to be nippy out there and rainy, we’ll see if he has his stuff today or not.

    Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card (TBA)

    BattersAverage
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    Cincinnati Reds 6/1/24 Lineup

    TJ Friedl came back yesterday and had a big time insurance run RBI that helped propel the Reds to a win early on in a series again. It was textbook Terry, let a ball run to him, slap it the other way. Good sign of what’s hopefully to come.

    Elly is batting .216 in the month of May. That is the most concerning thing by far. The new big metric bat speed has Elly in the 89th percentile, but we already knew he would be up there. The problem is clear. He whiffs over 30% of the time. Doesn’t matter how fast your bat moves if you can’t make contact. He needs to slow the at-bat down and wait on the ball – he’s striking out on offspeed stuff more than anything else. Tonight facing a LHP likely won’t yield better results. We’re going to need some better production from Stuart Fairchild tonight, and I’m going to loop Steer in here as well. This is a good matchup for him.

    Chicago Cubs LHP Justin Steele

    Chicago Cubs’ LHP Justin Steele

    Justin Steele, as I predicted, has not been the Justin Steele many Chicago Cubs fans thought they’d be getting this year. He was incredible last year, no secret about it, received several Cy Young votes, even, but he’s been getting hit HARD this year so far. If you’re a Cubs fan, you know that they haven’t won any of his last few starts dating back to last year – but there’s something to be positive about here tonight, the Reds haven’t fared well against LHP at all, and the only guy that *should* be in the lineup tonight that’s had great success is Tyler Stephenson. His career ERA against Cincinnati says he should get shitted on tonight, but I don’t see it happening, personally. 7.53 ERA in 8 games, 6 starts – the Reds have a team OPS of .967 against him. The majority of this damage against him came against players no longer donning Cincinnati across their chest, however, and shouldn’t be a reason to bet against him. And I say he hasn’t been the “same” Steele very lightly…he’s just a few bad pitches away from being stout as can be, K% is normal, not walking guys, there’s just a lot of batted balls finding their way.

    Chicago Cubs Lineup Card (TBA)

    BattersAverage
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    Chicago Cubs’ June 1st, 2024 lineup

    Honestly, the Cubs lineup has not been too much better than the Reds. That is not a surprise when you see that the Cubs expected wins on the season is the same as Cincinnati’s. The Cubs will load their lineup tonight with a lot of LHP in anticipation of breaking up Hunter Greene’s great 2024 campaign. We’ll see how it works out for them…

    Cincinnati Reds beat Chicago Cubs May 31st, 2024

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    Santiago Espinal Celebrates
    Santiago Espinal and Elly De La Cruz Celebrate a win at Wrigley Field

    Reds beat Cubs:The Cincinnati Reds have now won the first game of the last 5 series with the win over the Chicago Cubs today at Wrigley Field. Graham Ashcraft was on the mound, whom had run support once again. The Reds forced Javier Assad out a little bit early, as he entered the 5th inning with above 90 pitches.

    Ian Happ, a literal Reds killer.

    The games scoring started out with an Ian Happ homer. Who would’ve guessed…His lifetime OPS against the Cincinnati Reds now sits at 1.056 overall. It was his 30th overall homer against the Reds in career, simply absurdity…


    Reds play small ball to tie it

    Tyler Stephenson had a big day today at Wrigley, he got the scoring started with an RBI single to the opposite field scoring Spencer Steer after a walk, and eventually Jake Fraley, whom singled, came around on a single by DH Nick Martini who has looked better of late.

    Tyler Stephenson and Nick Martini RBIs

    Graham Ashcraft is having command issues again and it showed – after two guys got on, Yan Gomes on a 0-2 count hit by pitch, and a hit, David Bell went and yanked him for Fernando Cruz who didn’t have his greatest splitters today. Cruz ended up walking Gomes in to give the Cubs a 3-2 lead headed into the 6th inning.


    Bell pushed the right buttons today

    David Bell went to his bench on several occasions to try to get a spark, and boy did he get one, probably from one of the least likely candidates for the situation… The Cubs went to Drew Smyly (LHP) and the Reds countered with Santiago Espinal, and boy did he deliver on a first pitch hanger, right after I tweeted “man, the Reds literally do not hit homers on the road anymore” – you all can thank me for that one.

    Santiago Espinal hits a go ahead homer

    Alexis Diaz shaky after some insurance from Friedl

    TJ Friedl came up with a big time insurance run in the 9th inning slapping a patented hard ground ball past the shift giving the Reds a 5-3 lead, then the Cincinnati Reds tried to get funky and give the game up after some more Alexis Diaz struggles… but Jacob Hurtubise and Elly De La Cruz came up CLUTCH. Reds win. Look at this hosepiece to save the game and give the Reds a 2-11 record on the year in 1 run games:

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    Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs – May 31, 2024

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    Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs

    Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs – May 31, 2024 – The Cincinnati Reds fly into Chicago 8 games under .500 and with a very important stretch of games incoming if they want a shot at making any noise. Such a confounding team – they sweep the Dodgers, then drop a series to the Cardinals. The most concerning thing recently has been Elly’s performance. Can Cincinnati’s star turn it around against the Cubs?

    Cincinnati Reds RHP Graham Ashcraft

    Cincinnati Reds RHP Graham Ashcraft.
    Cincinnati Reds RHP Graham Ashcraft.

    Ashcraft was rocked last time out against the Dodgers giving up 5 runs, but still added a W to his tally with some incredible run support. The highest ERA, but the most wins among starters, Ashcraft gets the most run support by far. He continues to be what he has always been – a middle of the rotation guy that gets a lot of groundballs. His main issue is getting ambushed on his cutter early in counts – he can’t get to his slider. Ashcraft has not had an outing without giving up a run since 05/01, so expect a run or two early unless he can clamp down.

    Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

    BattersAverage
    1CF TJ Friedl.160
    2SS Elly De La Cruz.249
    33B Jeimer Candelario.224
    41B Spencer Steer.221
    5RF Jake Fraley.279
    6C Tyler Stephenson.241
    7DH Nick Martini.194
    82B Jonathan India.222
    9LF Will Benson.196

    Give it a series or two for TJ to get settled in again. Two injuries, coming back and then going back on the IL immediately is not easy to readjust after. Stephenson has cooled down a bit, but we can think Bell for part of that – benching him every third day. India is .300 over his last 7 – watch out (if he’ll take that bat off his shoulder).

    Elly is batting .216 in the month of May. That is the most concerning thing by far. The new big metric bat speed has Elly in the 89th percentile, but we already knew he would be up there. The problem is clear. He whiffs over 30% of the time. Doesn’t matter how fast your bat moves if you can’t make contact. He needs to slow the at-bat down and wait on the ball – he’s striking out on offspeed stuff more than anything else.

    Chicago Cubs RHP Javier Assad

    Chicago Cubs RHP Javier Assad.

    Assad was rocked for 4 runs last time out and lost to the Cardinals. On the year, he’s been very solid – 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA. Advanced stats don’t stand out – everything is around league average except his Pitching Run Value. He gets it done in every way. He does issue a lot of walks and doesn’t really have swing and miss stuff. The Reds should get some pitches to hit, but he excels at inducing weak contact.

    Chicago Cubs Lineup Card

    BattersAverage
    1DH Mike Tauchman.263
    2RF Seiya Suzuki.258
    31B Cody Bellinger.267
    43B Christopher Morel.198
    5LF Ian Happ.221
    62B Nico Hoerner.257
    7SS Dansby Swanson.205
    8CF Pete Crow-Armstrong.228
    9C Yan Gomes.158

    Honestly, the Cubs lineup has not been too much better than the Reds. That is not a surprise when you see that the Cubs expected wins on the season is the same as Cincinnati’s. The names to watch out for are Bellinger and Reds-killer Ian Happ. Bellinger is on fire – .355 in his last 7 games. Happ always seems to come through against Cincinnati. Morel has been ice cold and underperforming on the year. Let’s hope he doesn’t wake up against the Reds.