The Cincinnati Reds Brutal Start to 2024 – We should’ve seen it coming.

Nope, this isn’t a doom & gloom post. It’s actually…the direct opposite. Yes, we’ve been entirely disappointed. Yes, it’s an unfortunate reality that the Cincinnati Reds, for the last 10 years, have started ridiculously slow, particularly under David Bell. Yes, the Reds have lost 13 of their last 16 games. But…it’s May 13th as this is being posted and they’re not even 4 games out of a playoff spot as it stands. I feel very comfortable stating they’ve played their worst baseball, they’ve lost themselves several games just by pressing.

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Strength of Schedule

The Cincinnati Reds have played a tough strength of schedule thus far, which is why it was so important that they came out of the gates hot in April – spoiler alert, they didn’t. April wasn’t easy on them, and May for damn sure isn’t easy on them, but we can look at the end of the tunnel here…and it’s why I even need to take my own advice sometimes, you gotta zoom out. That’s such an easy thing to say, but boy oh boy it’s so tough in the moment.

According to Strength of Schedule Guru, the Cincinnati Reds have the third EASIEST schedule remaining in Major League Baseball. And, get this…they have played the third HARDEST schedule so far in MLB. Now, if that’s not good enough, the renowed website Tankathon‘s formula also has the Reds as the 10th easiest remaining schedule. Folks at home, are we finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel after May?

Now, if you actually viewed those, you’d notice something. There’s a little bit of an issue. The Cubs and Brewers both are also in the category of “easiest schedule” remaining. Here’s a good look at it.

So is the division out of play? I think we can say for certain the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers are considerably better than the Reds right now, and I say that as Matt McLain, TJ Friedl, & Noelvi Marte haven’t been able to play, and the offense, in whole, is struggling. Had we not had so many critical injuries on offense early, there’s no doubt in my mind the Reds would win this division. I repeat – it’s early, very early, but it’s SEVERELY unlikely they makeup 7 games in the division, which of 5/13, is what they’re behind. That would be some 30 for 30 type stuff. It’s happened before, but I don’t think, with our 2nd best player from 2023 still out until September/August, that it’s going to happen. Not to mention, TJ Friedl just got hit on the thumb last night and will miss even more time. The 8 game Cincinnati Reds losing streak may have put a dagger in the division, but they’re very much alive.

The Pitching has me optimistic

How the hell could anyone possibly be optimistic about this team lately? No, seriously. How? Well, let me tell you. The Pitching. The Reds’ pitching, mainly starting pitching, has been about as stout as it gets. They are 5th in fWAR as a team, posting 4.8 WAR, trailing only the Nationals, Orioles, Redsox, & Phillies. Hunter Greene & Andrew Abbott are amongst the top 50 in fWAR with a minimum of 45 IP. Hunter Greene, you know, the guy you’d think was having a horrible season if you base your opinions off of Reds Twitter, is 15th overall in all of MLB in fWAR with 1.2. Fernando Cruz is well on his way to a career year, Alexis Diaz has looked like himself when his slider is sliding, but him being the ‘weak link’ is definitely the case right now, Emilio Pagan is finding his rhythm, Nick Martinez has looked well in opportunities he’s been given, and Sam Moll hasn’t allowed a damn run in over 25 innings and will be back soon.

Let’s Zoom out.

Let’s make a list of reasons I’m optimistic to conclude this article, because, truthfully, and maybe I’m an idiot for thinking this way, and if you’ve read my tweets lately you’d of seen me emotionally call the team absolutely dogshit, and probably even more profanities…but hear me out. Let’s zoom out and look at the bigger picture in a better, more levelheaded manner:

• The Cincinnati Reds are 1-8 currently in 1 run games. They’ve played 9 already in a month and a half of baseball, with one of the toughest schedules out there. That means they’re hanging with every team they’re playing. Continuing to lose 1 run games? I don’t see it.
• The Reds Pyath theorum W/L is currently sitting at 19-21, which, I bet we’d be a lot more ok with being 2 games under .500 right now instead of 17-23, wouldn’t we? That means we’ve been extremely unlucky with things falling in place.
• Matt McLain (aka the 2nd best player on the team in limited time in ’23) will likely be back in late August/early September for a last push.
• Christian Encarnacion-Strand will be back, likely in a better mindset, and his wrist should be fully healthy by June.
• Noelvi Marte will be back from suspension on June 28th* (If there’s a rainout/postponement, this will be pushed back again.) He is currently playing in sim games at the Arizona Complex.
• They’ve literally lost 13 of their last 16 games and are still only 3.5 games out of a wildcart spot. Come on.

The “expectations”

No one is worse than me when it comes to expectations. Unless you’re the Cincinnati Reds. I truly believe 90% of our struggles at the plate have been straight up fears of coming up short. You can’t play baseball, ESPECIALLY at the MLB level, scared, or in a bad mindset. That’s why this game is so important to have LEADERS. This game is literally set up to make you fail, in fact, it’s labeled “the game of failure” for a reason. It’s why we accept batting averages of .300 as elite. We have made up stats to cope with the fact that it’s a game of failure. The Reds have to stop pressing. You can see it on their faces, they’re getting disappointed, and the worst part is, they’re starting to press, make stupid routine errors in the field, and are making mistake after mistake on the basepaths being too aggressive. Nothing has been calculated at ALL. Boys, you’re playing another form of chess. RELAX. Start winning baseball games.