Connor Phillips has regressed exponentially

By

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30 May 2024

Connor Phillips, a name you’ve heard of by now, has been absolutely abysmal in AAA Louisville this year. There’s nothing positive to say about it other than, well, he’s still throwing hard. And in that same sentence, I could detail why that’s a bad thing…he’s not hurt. But he’s been this bad. Let’s get into it.

Velocity isn’t a lifeline.

You can throw 100 MPH like Connor Phillips can, but the beauty of baseball is that it doesn’t always matter, no matter how much MLB markets that it does. See, the beauty of baseball is that a batter has a benefit of the doubt, too. Balls & strikes. If that 100 MPH (Now is a good time to remind you it’s not a repeated 100, his fastball sits in the mid to upper 90s) is being thrown for a ball, and the batter gets 4 of them before he gets 3 strikes, he takes his base. For free. Call it the EBT of baseball, except this isn’t electronic, but he’s still eatin’ for free. I know you already know this, I’m being a sarcastic asshole to cope with the fact that one of my favorite pitching prospects we possess has been absolute ass, people. Long story short, Connor Phillips is back to being unable to throw a damn strike.

The struggles are back.

Any scout you’ve seen speak about Connor Phillips will tell you that his biggest downfall will always be lack of command. Him being back to the “old Connor” really is a surprise to no one that’s followed Phillips around. He came out of college with 40 grade command, he hasn’t been any better than that. His 2023 season was decent, but all in all, the inability to throw consistent strikes for him is real. Has he become another example of “prospect hugging?” – It’s known that last year many teams were asking about Connor Phillips availability, some of which, Nick Krall & the Cincinnati Reds front office consistently struck them down. Let’s hope that wasn’t a mistake…

Phillips has done nothing but regress thus far this year after making his MLB debut last year and pitching in some big time games down the stretch. I’ve noted he isn’t injured, and that’s where my worry lays… so far, this year:

Month	IP	BB	K	WHIP	ERA
April – 5 GS	20.0	16	17	2.15	9.00
May – 5 GS	21.2	23	18	2.08	7.89
Totals – 10 starts	41.2	39	35	*2.11*	8.42

Connor Phillips by the Month

Guys, it’s as bad as it reads. For fun, if you want to call it that, look below for a graph from April 20th’s start against the Iowa Cubs, and last night’s start against the Iowa Cubs. He has no idea where the ball is going. Repeated delivery consistency is there, and that’s what’s alarming to me. His release points remain the same, but the pitches are going, for the most part, nowhere near the strikezone. Folks, just using last night’s data, he only threw 34 pitches of the 89 total in the strikezone. 55 pitches were out of the strikezone. He only generated 29 swings on 89 total pitches. That’s disgusting. You can sniff all that data of last night’s start here

What’s next for Phillips?

I’d really like to see the Cincinnati Reds front office step in here and put him on the injured list before he completely loses his confidence. Let him throw side session BP until he can regularly throw strikes, then let him get back to it as it warms up some more. He is a super mental dude, you could see it last year where he BLAMED HIMSELF for the Cincinnati Reds not making the postseason. Connor, you made 5 starts in an emegency situation, not your fault my guy. He’s only 23 years old, no arm injuries, nothing to worry about just yet. Just need to keep finetuning the delivery and figure out the armslot that is going to have him throwing more strikes.

If he’s unable to throw consistent strikes throughout the rest of this year, it’s time to start converting him into a reliever, which is a big L, but a necessary one. Get that velocity back to the 100s, tune the secondaries. There is a LOT of Lucas Sims in his game, there’s seriously no better comparison. Arm slot, arsenal, size, everything is there. It will suck seeing him not start, but that is genuinely the last ditch effort to save an important arm and turn him into a valuable asset.

Connor Phillips is extremely easy to root for, and I will always do just that. Keep working, Connor, we need ya.

TJ Friedl Activated again, Mike Ford DFA’d

By

Nati

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29 May 2024

0

Man, I wish my name was Mike Ford, no really. Keep reading to find out why. TJ Friedl reactivated for the Reds and DH/1B Mike Ford was designated for assignment. It wasn’t even a month ago that we were hype that TJ Friedl was back.

TJ Friedl was hit by pitch not even a full calendar month ago (May 12th) and was diagnosed with a broken left thumb. Thumbs are important in baseball. Thumbs are important always. I bet dogs wish they had thumbs. TJ already back again this early worries me a little bit – I would’ve liked to see him at least get a few swings in on the farm before coming back and joining us in Chicago against the Cubs, but he’s back now. No complaints. I just know he’s going to be behind.

Ford made HOW much in 3 weeks?

On May 4th the Cincinnati Reds honored Mike Ford’s request of releasal because his opt-out date was May 1st. He was shitting on AAA pitching, as most with major league background do, and he wanted some money. Well, fast forward 4 days later, about to board a plane to meet up with his dad, where Mike Ford gets a call from Nick Krall and Brad Meador with a MAJOR League contract offer, with anticipation of Christian Encarnacion-Strand landing on the IL and boy, what an opportunity, right? Going from fishing with your old man to making a milly. In one month.

That’s right, Mike Ford made $1,300,000 in less than one month from the Cincinnati Reds. He had 60 ABs, mainly from the 3 and 4 hole, and slashed .150/.177/.233/.411 with 1 homer and 9 total hits. He made $1.3M to be worth -0.6 bWAR. The man won the damn lottery. Fleeced Bob the FruitMan. Respect, Mike.

We do want to add, however, that details of the contract are not entirely known. We know the amounts guaranteed, but there could be verbiage that details IF Mike Ford clears waivers, he must report to AAA Louisville. With this said, there’s chance he’ll remain with the Reds organization, just off the 40 man roster and playing in AAA.

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals – May 28, 2024

By

Mike V

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28 May 2024

0

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds – May 28, 2024 – 5 in a row sounds good, doesn’t it? The Cincinnati Reds are hot, but I don’t need to tell you that. 19 runs in the last 4 games. The pitching? 3 straight games with only one run allowed. Tonight’s matchup is favorable too – the Cardinals don’t hit LHP well. Let’s take a look at what to expect tonight against the Cardinals.

Cincinnati Reds LHP Andrew Abbott

Abbott hold the lowest ERA (2.68) among Reds starters and actually has the second lowest among all pitchers (second only to Buck Farmer – 2.19). He’s also give up the most HRs on the staff with 9 on the year. Take a look at his advanced statistics and you’ll be very encouraged. Very encouraged. Overall Pitching Run Value of +7 (88th percentile), Hard Hit % of 31.2 (89th percentile), and xBA of .208 (85th percentile).

He may not do one specific thing significantly better than everyone else, but he puts it all together – to the tune of 2.2 WAR on the season so far. Abbott has only given up 5 runs over his last 4 starts. What’s interesting is that of the 17 runs he’s given up, 11 have come off HRs. In fact, opponent’s average with RISP is only .162. When he keeps the ball in play, he’s been one of the best starters in the bigs.

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	LF Jacob Hurtubise	.250
2	SS Elly De La Cruz	.245
3	3B Jeimer Candelario	.222
4	1B Spencer Steer	.231
5	RF Jake Fraley	.281
6	C Tyler Stephenson	.250
7	DH Nick Martini	.186
8	2B Jonathan India	.223
9	CF Will Benson	.194

I’ll admit that the jury is still out on Hurtubise, but I was probably too harsh on him when Bell started making him the leadoff guy. He’s done admirably for someone who probably should not have been expected to be in the bigs before September, much less be starting and at the leadoff. Candelario might be back – that is to what the Cincinnati Reds were expecting when they signed him. Steer is .286 in his last 7 with 2 HRs and 5 RBIs. Martini is at least providing competitive at bats even if his average leaves a lot to be desired. Don’t sleep on India either – .260 over his last 30 – he’s getting a lot more consistent.

It’s beautiful that I have not worried about seeing the name Mike Ford on the lineup card in a while. Yes, that deserved its own paragraph.

St. Louis Cardinals RHP Kyle Gibson

Gibson’s last outing was pretty good. No runs given up, but he only made it 4 innings. A glance at Gibson’s advanced statistics and you’ll see that he lives and dies by his offspeed stuff. He gets alot of ground balls and an average Whiff % of 24.7% but that’s about it. His xERA is 5.54 compared to his actual ERA of 3.81 and his xBA is .278 compared to his BAA of .240 – translation: batted balls are going right at guys, lots of runners getting thrown out, and he’s getting lucky. If the Reds bring the same bats they’ve been swinging, I’m projecting 2-3 runs on Gibson before they chase him out.

St. Louis Cardinals Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	SS Masyn Winn	.300
2	RF Lars Nootbar	.227
3	1B Paul Goldschmidt	.222
4	C Ivan Herrera	.261
5	3B Nolan Arenado	.258
6	DH Alec Burleson	.308
7	CF Dylan Carlson	.125
8	2B Nolan Gorman	.213
9	LF Brendan Donovan	.228

Winn and Nootbar are both on a tear (.365 and .308 in their last 15 respectively). Goldschmidt hit his 7th homer of the year off Lodolo last night and hits LHP significantly better than RHP. Herrera is back behind the plate after a night at DH and Siani gets a day off with Carlson in CF and Burleson at DH.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds – May 24, 2024

By

Mike V

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24 May 2024

0

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds – May 24, 2024 – Another series done, another series lost. Rinse and repeat. The Dodgers are in town after the Reds visited Los Angeles last week. Honestly, I am looking past this series. After this series, the Reds have series against the Cardinals and Rockies in the next couple of weeks (with the Cubs in between). Those two series are winnable, and are truly the last chance to spark a turnaround. A couple of weeks after that, the Cincinnati Reds have two series against Pittsburgh and another series against Saint Louis. Let’s see how they matchup in today’s matchup even though it seems hopeless.

Cincinnati Reds RHP Graham Ashcraft

Starting pitching has not really been the issue this year. Ashcraft has given up 3 runs in his last 3 starts. The two starts before that stretch, he gave up 1 run to Texas and 0 in 6 IP to San Diego. The big thing for Ashcraft this season can be seen in his batted ball profile. He’s getting groundballs on 51% of balls put in play, but his weak contact percent is only 0.6% – by far the worst of his career. His ERA is the best of his career so far. Just a weird statline for Ashcraft this season.

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	CF Stuart Fairchild	.222
2	SS Elly De La Cruz	.254
3	1B Jeimer Candelario	.224
4	LF Spencer Steer	.226
5	C Tyler Stephenson	.263
6	3B Santiago Espinal	.194
7	DH Nick Martini	.184
8	2B Jonathan India	.208
9	RF Jacob Hurtubise	.214

Stu exactly where he should be against LHP. Expect him to be yanked for Benson if a RHP comes in. I see that David Bell remembered that Tyler Stephenson exists after a brief moment of dementia in last night’s 9th inning. Nick Martini in the DH spot isn’t ideal, but I will take it over Mike Ford seven days a week. Martini actually has better splits against LHP.

Los Angeles Dodgers LHP James Paxton

Paxton’s last time out he gave up 3 runs over 6 IP against your Cincinnati Reds. As noted in that game’s preview, Paxton’s advanced statistics are abysmal. The only thing he is not below average in is extension off the mound. Yet his pitching run values are positive. Simply put, guys are just hitting his stuff right at defenders. He’s getting hit hard, he’s not striking people out, he’s walking a ton of batters, and then he finds a way to get out of it consistently. The Reds will have to take advantage of the guys they get on base. At least we won’t have to worry about automatic out Mike Ford squandering runners on base tonight (hopefully).

Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	*TBA*
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds, May 23, 2024

By

Mike V

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23 May 2024

0

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds, May 23, 2024 – Tough loss last night. The kind that makes you turn off the TV in the 5th inning. Nick Martinez is not it. At least not as a starter. The guy apparently does not have a starter mentality. Just tell yourself we can still win this series and breathe. For more info, check out our series preview here. Let’s see how the game matches up today.

Cincinnati Reds RHP Frankie Montas

Montas’ last two outings have not been great. Last time out against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Montas allowed 3 runs on 5 IP. Not absolutely terrible, but the time before against the San Fransisco Giants, he allowed 4 runs on 4 2/3 IP. When the offense is playing like the Reds offense is, that won’t win you games. As we have documented, his velocity is up recently by about 3 MPH on every pitch and he is getting more movement. He’s just throwing less strikes. Less strikes, and issuing more free passes. Montas will need to attack the strike zone and trust the stuff that got him through 6 IP with no runs on Opening Day.

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	LF Jacob Hurtubise	.154
2	SS Elly De La Cruz	.256
3	3B Jeimer Candelario	.223
4	DH Mike Ford	.157
5	1B Spencer Steer	.224
6	RF Nick Martini	.169
7	2B Jonathan India	.212
8	C Luke Maile	.158
9	CF Will Benson	.191

This lineup is the reason the season is going nowhere. Mike Ford batting cleanup. Luke Maile starting over Tyler Stephenson when Hunter Greene is not on the mound. Guys like Nick Martini starting because Jake Fraley and TJ Friedl are injured. Bad news. At least Jeimer Candelario is heating up. He hit a HR last night and went 2 for 4. Over his last 15 games, he is batting .281 with an OBP of .317. Very encouraging considering his abysmal start to the season. Not saying he was worth the money yet, but good enough to bat 3rd in this lineup.

I’m still trying to understand the choice to bat Hurtubise in the leadoff spot. Jonathan India has an OBP of .305 in the last 15 games – second best on the team. That is not world beating by any means, but he has always tended to do better in the leadoff spot. Here’s hoping Hurtubise can get the guys going.

San Diego Padres RHP Matt Waldron

The last couple of times out have been better for Waldron. He allowed 1 run on 5 2/3 IP against the Atlanta Braves last week. Waldron issues league average walks and get a league average amount of strikeouts. However, he rarely gets whiffs or chases. His Pitching Run Value is pretty below average – the 22nd percentile. Basically, there’s nothing special about his numbers except that fact that he rarely gets hit hard. Man I would love to see Elly smack a HR on this guy.

San Diego Padres Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	1B Luis Arraez	.330
2	DH Fernando Tatis Jr.	.248
3	LF Jurickson Profar	.339
4	2B Jake Cronenworth	.269
5	3B Manny Machado	.231
6	RF David Peralta	.000
7	CF Jackson Merrill	.283
8	SS Ha-Seong Kim	.214
9	C Kyle Higashioka	.150

Luis Campusano gets a day off. David Peralta will take his 3rd AB of the season as the Padres send him out again. Top-heavy lineup with a rookie phenom at the bottom. I would like to say it’s a good chance to win a series, but we all know why I won’t. Let’s just see what happens I guess.

Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres – May 22nd, 2024

By

Nati

-

22 May 2024

0

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds – May 22, 2024 – First thing’s first, if you haven’t yet, go check out our series preview here. A big win last night over the San Diego Padres to start the series off. It’s exactly how you would want your favorite baseball team to open every series, with a W. A cheeky little 3 hit, 2 run night that resulted in a shutout win. We still can’t hit. But maybe…just maybe they’ll start to win those games that they can’t hit in.

Houston, we have a little problem – Another hit by pitch of one of our players sent them out of the game – this time, it’s Jake Fraley. Rake was hit on the wrist last night and immediately left the game. David Bell threw a tantrum, as he should’ve, out of sheer frustration of losing another one of his players. It’s been frustrating. The initial x-ray of Jake Fraley came back negative, but you have to take it with a grain of salt, TJ Friedl’s initial x-ray also came back negative & then an MRI revealed a fracture. Let’s hope for the best. My goodness, it’s been a fuckin’ brutal year, boys & girls.

Cincinnati Reds RHP Nick Martinez

Nick Martinez is back in the “opener” role until fellow Nick, Nick Lodolo, can be back and healthy in the rotation. Nick Martinez has been beat around as a starter, there’s nothing more to say. It’s night and day difference – as a starter, he’s pitching to the tune of a 6.86 ERA with 31 hits given up with a 1.619 WHIP. As a reliever? Night and day difference. 1.04 ERA in 17.1 IP, 0.692 WHIP and only 10 hits given up. I would’ve rather seen David Bell start Brent Suter especially after seeing the success that Andrew Abbott had yesterday. I gotta be brutally honest as you know I always am, folks… I’m fading Nick Martinez tonight. Especially against his former team. The Padres have been a little cold offensively of late, but Martinez is going to be in consistent trouble with Cronenworth, Merrill, and Arraez, and 2 of those guys have a great chance to be on for Manny Machado on another warm, muggy day in Cincinnati. I don’t like this matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card 5/22/24

	Batters	Average \| OPS
1	LF Jacob Hurtubise	.182 \| .490
2	SS Elly De La Cruz	.262 \| .838
3	3B Jeimer Candelario	.216 \| .663
4	C Tyler Stephenson	.263 \| .797
5	DH Mike Ford	.146 \| .413
6	1B Spencer Steer	.224 \| .710
7	RF Nick Martini	.177 \| .529
8	2B Jonathan India	.216 \| .619
9	CF Will Benson	.195 \| .681

Cincinnati Reds 5/22/24 Lineup

The first thing I think when I see this lineup is…whew. Whew. WHEW. It’s almost inpalpable seeing how bad a lot of these guys have been this year. Not a single dude other than Elly de La Cruz with an OPS above .800. That has to be a record for the Cincinnati Reds since they’ve played at Great American to only have ONE guy with an OPS above .800. Spencer Steer struggling as bad as he has lately has hurt. Tyler needs to keep on keeping on. This offense has to get going.

San Diego Padres RHP Michael King

Have you ever heard of Juan Soto? It’s a sure thing Michael King has. He was apart of the New York Yankees package that sent Juan Soto from San Diego to New York. Michael King has 5 pitches he throws, primarily his four seam fastball, sinker & changeup, but he will also throw his sweeper. His fastball gets beat around pretty bad, so I would fully expect him to throw predominantly offspeed tonight. His sinker is his best pitch by far. The Reds have really struggled with starters that have the repertoire that King has, I fully expect him to go well over his K totals for the day, if you’re a betting man. With no Jake Fraley likely, & Spencer Steer still nursing his ankle he hurt back in Arizona, I’m looking for some contact guys like Santiago Espinal to have a big day. This is a really good matchup for Will Benson, too. This is a guy Tyler Stephenson traditionally beats up, too. Let’s hope Spencer Steer is a full go today, this is a great guy for him to get back on track with. Sidenote: Michael King has given up the most homeruns in Major League Baseball so far.

San Diego Padres Lineup Card

*TBA*	Batters	Average \| OPS
1	2B Luis Arraez	.318 \| .746
2	RF Fernando Tatis Jr	.249 \| .751
3	DH Jurickson Profar	.339 \| .942
4	1B Jake Cronenworth	.269 \| .805
5	3B Manny Machado	.225 \| .623
6	LF David Peralta	— \| — Debut
7	CF Jackson Merrill	.284 \| .710
8	C Campusano	.259 \| .759
9	SS Tyler Wade	.246 \| .608

San Diego Padres 5/22/24 Lineup

Padres posted their lineup at 4pm today. Very left handed heavy in anticipation of facing Nick Martinez at least 3-4 innings.

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds – May 21, 2024

By

Mike V

-

21 May 2024

0

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds – May 21, 2024 – The Reds are back home to face off against the San Diego Padres. First thing’s first, if you haven’t yet, go check out our series preview here. OF Nick Martini is back in the bigs. OF Conner Capel was sent down to make room after receiving essential zero opportunity to prove himself. Gotta love that. Martini is simply a AAAA player. Martini went 8 for 22 in two weeks with AAA Louisville after starting the season in Cincinnati with a .177 average. Let’s see how everything matches up for today’s series opener.

Cincinnati Reds LHP Andrew Abbott

Abbott spun a gem last time out going 7.0 IP with just 1 run on 4 hits and 2 walks. The bats couldn’t back him up though and Fernando Cruz gave up a run to lose it in the 8th. Abbott just kept doing what he had been doing – generating weak contact and going right at batters. He gave up a solo shot to Christian Walker in the 2nd, but ultimately went 7 innings with only 4 strikeouts by inducing 10 groundouts (one DP) and 5 weak pop ups. All of that to say, Abbott generally is not getting hit hard this season. Occasionally, he struggles with giving up the long ball. However, most of the times teams have had success against him, they’ve had to chain together singles and little bloopers. Unfortunately, singles and little bloopers is what half of this San Diego lineup does. Strength on strength tonight.

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	LF Jacob Hurtubise	.250
2	SS Elly De La Cruz	.256
3	1B Jeimer Candelario	.220
4	RF Jake Fraley	.272
5	C Tyler Stephenson	.273
6	DH Mike Ford	.156
7	2B Jonathan India	.219
8	3B Santiago Espinal	.200
9	CF Will Benson	.191

Don’t even get me started on Mike Ford. Guess Martini couldn’t get to Cincinnati in time or something. Leading off rookie Hurtubise is….. a choice. I want the guy to succeed as much as the next guy, but that’s odd. Most important though – no Spencer Steer. Bell said to expect him at 100% today and he’s not in the lineup. Maybe time to get a bit worried?

San Diego Padres RHP Joe Musgrove

Joe Musgrove returns from the 15-day IL today after fighting through tricep tendonitis. Musgrove has given up 3+ runs in 6 of his 8 starts. He hands them out. Advanced statistics on this guy are a joke. Hold on though, the last time I said that, the Reds got shut down. Honestly though – his xBA is .304 (6th percentile). He gives up a .318 average to left-handed batters. He’s also given up the 2nd most HRs in the NL even after a two week break. The Cincinnati Reds SHOULD have no problem hitting him tonight.

San Diego Padres Lineup Card

*TBA*	Batters	Average
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds – Series Preview

By

Mike V

-

21 May 2024

0

Your Cincinnati Reds come into this series 19-28 to face the 25-25 San Diego Padres. There are 113 games left to be played. Elly has a lot of bases to steal. Steer has a lot of HRs to hit. Marte will be back in 30 games. Breathe.

As for this series, the pitching matchups should be favorable for the Reds. We’ll see Joe Musgrove (3-3 with a 6.37 ERA), Michael King (3-4 with a 4.31 ERA), and sophomore Matt Waldron (2-5 with a 5.00 ERA). The best part – they are all righties. Cincinnati has confirmed Andrew Abbott on Tuesday. We should see an opener or Nick Martinez on Wednesday, and Frankie Montas on Thursday.

Cincinnati Reds Notebook

43 games done. Forget what you know about Cincinnati’s lineup. Across the board (except Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson, and Jake Fraley), the bats are about as bad as they can get. It can only get better… right? Two weeks ago, SIX guys with a sub .200 average played. Yesterday’s lineup had three. Two of those guys shouldn’t be in the lineup anyway. Point is, moving forward the competition lightens up (outside of the Dodgers one more time) and most of our guys are already trending in the right direction finally.

The starting pitching has been the best in recent memory. The starters (including Nick Martinez) have an ERA of 3.69. That’s the best the Reds have pitched to this point in the season since 2014 – the bats were dead that year too. Don’t worry about the pitching. The problem is, they can’t win 1-run games going a well-documented 1-11 so far. When they need to hit, they don’t. Not to mention that Mike Ford being your three-hole hitter every day is as unserious as it gets. I took a break after writing that last sentence.

LHP Brandon Williamson made a rehab start for Louisville yesterday, giving up 5 hits and surrendering one run in 3 2/3 innings of work. For those of you worrying about Spencer Steer, he should be fine. Bell yanked him back for Hurtubise yesterday due to a sore ankle evidently and should be 100% on Tuesday. Emilio Pagan should not need time on the IL after leaving the game due to forearm tightness, but we’ve been told that before. LHP Nick Lodolo should be back to open the series against Saint Louis on May 27th. Lastly, OF Nick Martini was recalled while OF Conner Capel was sent back down after being given pretty much zero opportunity.

My Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

This has become a mental exercise. The lineup is the reason I am personally done with David Bell. Argue all you want that he has the roster he was given, injuries, he can’t bat for them, etc. End of the day, his lineups are terrible, and the last straw is the fact that Mike Ford has been absolutely non-competitive, but Bell sticks with him in the 3-hole. It’s unbelievably frustration and as unserious it gets in pro sports. Ford should not touch the lineup, much less the top half. He’s batting .143 against RHP and it’s not just the average (other guys in this lineup have bad averages), it’s that AB after AB, he is non-competitive. I hate to go in on our own guy, but Ford has 1 BB in 46 PAs, has a Batting Run Value of NEGATIVE 5, and is below average in every single advanced metric except Whiff % (which hardly matters when all the contact you make is weak grounders and pop-ups). All that in mind, this is what I would do all series:

	Batters	Average vs RHP
1	CF Will Benson	.225
2	SS Elly De La Cruz	.257
3	RF Jake Fraley	.268
4	C Tyler Stephenson	.274
5	LF Spencer Steer	.252
6	1B Jeimer Candelario	.188
7	2B Jonathan India	.208
8	3B Santiago Espinal	.172
9	DH Nick Martini	.161

I’ll get bold – I’d rather see Stu face RHP than Mike Ford. But I’m guessing that is what Martini was brought up for. Candelario is improving and the .188 average is not indicative of what we should expect. Stephenson needs to be in the lineup everyday unless Greene absolutely has to have Maile for some reason. Stephenson has become a brand new player and for right now, he’s the best batter on this roster – both ways.

San Diego Padres Notebook

The Padres come into this series 5-5 in their last 10. They got the better of the Cincinnati Reds in April, taking two from that three game set. San Diego scores a lot of runs – the fifth most in the bigs. They also give up a lot of runs – the tenth most. All three guys the Reds are set to face hand out runs. Musgrove has given up 3+ runs in 6 of his 8 starts, King in 5 of his 9, and Waldron in 4 of his 9. Only 4 of their combined 27 starts have gone without a run given up.

The Padres lineup is solid. All their everyday guys are over .200 – the Reds can’t say that. Luis Arraez arrived via trade on May 4th and has continued his incredible tear – the dude gets on base. Jurickson Profar is having a career year. Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, and Luis Campusano have all been above average as well.

Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers – May 17th, 2024

By

Mike V

-

17 May 2024

0

Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers – May 17th, 2024 – A glimmer of hope? A spark? Whatever you take away from it, last night’s win was incredible. The bullpen did their job and picked up for the rotation for a missed start by Lodolo. Elly did Elly things – 4 for 4 with 3 runs scored, a walk, and 4 steals. In fact, everyone except Steer and Fraley got on base. Tyler Stephenson had two RBI hits. Jeimer Candelario and Stuart Fairchild both came through with nice RBI XBHs. Just a complete domination of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Let’s break down how the Cincinnati Reds can repeat last night’s success.

Cincinnati Reds RHP Frankie Montas

No two ways about it – Montas’ last time out was a step in the wrong direction. He gave up 5 runs (4 earned) on 4.2 IP after a solid start out the time before. Montas’ velocity and movement have both picked up since his stint on the IL for a forearm contusion. Montas’ advanced statistics show a very middle of the road starter, but it is encouraging to see that his K % and his First Pitch Strike % are up tremendously. Look for him to not be shy and go after this Dodgers lineup. After all, what else can you do when they can all hit?

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	2B Jonathan India	.228
2	SS Elly De La Cruz	.277
3	LF Spencer Steer	.234
4	C Tyler Stephenson	.255
5	1B Jeimer Candelario	.230
6	DH Mike Ford	.182
7	CF Stuart Fairchild	.205
8	3B Santiago Espinal	.194
9	RF Will Benson	.196

Writing out the lineup card feels so much better after a night with as much production as last night’s win. Candelario and Stephenson are on a tear lately. Elly went 4 for 4 and now we get to see him bat from the right handed batters box again. I personally feel he looks better every time we see him face a lefty. LHP mashing Stuart Fairchild is one to watch tonight. He’s been heating up of late as well and is always a wonder in CF too. Mike Ford really is your everyday DH folks.

Los Angeles Dodgers LHP James Paxton

The Dodgers acquired 35 year old Paxton via free agency this past offseason. An 11-year veteran, Paxton has put together a very solid career with a lifetime 3.64 ERA over 163 starts. His ERA is even better this year – 2.58 in 7 starts. Paxton has been steady, and has yet to really be knocked around. Interestingly though, he gives up a better average to lefties (.259 vs .213 against righties). Even more interestingly, his advanced statistics this season are TERRIBLE. He is literally below average in every single statistic except Extension off the mound – and honestly that doesn’t matter. He is in the SIXTH percentile for both K % and BB % (13.7% and 14.9% respectively).

Walking more batters than you strikeout isn’t usually a recipe for success. If you took Paxton and put him on a team that did not hit as well as Los Angeles, he’d probably have 2-3 losses by now. His fastball and curveball both have positive run value and are a mean 1-2 punch though. His Batting Average Against in the first two innings is over .200 but then plummets until the fifth inning – he shuts you down if you don’t get to him early.

Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	SS Mookie Betts	.343
2	DH Shohei Ohtani	.360
3	1B Freddie Freeman	.292
4	C Will Smith	.315
5	LF Teoscar Hernandez	.243
6	2B Gavin Lux	.196
7	CF Andy Pages	.267
8	RF Jason Heyward	.214
9	3B Enrique Hernandez	.212

The Dodgers are taking the Reds a little more seriously tonight. Smith and Pages are back in the lineup. It’s not easy to hold baseball’s best lineup to 2 runs. Don’t expect it again. Should be an offensive battle tonight.

Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers – May 16, 2024

By

Mike V

-

16 May 2024

0

Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers – May 16, 2024 – Doom and gloom in Reds Country. It’s getting harder and harder to write these without being pessimistic. Just when the Reds need a turnaround, they face a four-game set against perhaps the best team in baseball. Let’s break down the opener against Los Angeles.

Cincinnati Reds LHP Brent Suter

The Cincinnati Reds will trot out reliever Brent Suter in an “opener” role in the first matchup of the series. Not really a true starter, Suter will hope to give the Reds a level playing field early. Then, we should expect Nick Martinez to come out of the bullpen and eat up as many innings as he can. Suter is a low velocity, weak contact pitcher. He ranks in the 88th percentile with an Average Exit Velocity of 86.1 MPH, the 89th percentile with a Hard-Hit % of 30.3, and the 74th percentile with a BB % of 6.5. Suter hits the strike zone and pitches for contact. Cool for the hometown guy to get a start even though the circumstances are grim.

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	CF Will Benson	.194
2	SS Elly De La Cruz	.258
3	DH Mike Ford	.179
4	1B Spencer Steer	.242
5	C Tyler Stephenson	.245
6	RF Jake Fraley	.300
7	3B Jeimer Candelario	.230
8	2B Santiago Espinal	.200
9	LF Conner Capel	.167

An off day for Jonathan India if you want to call it that. I would rather see him in the lineup than Espinal, but Espinal did homer last night. Elly De La Cruz is back after a one game hiatus from the starting lineup. I even read a whole article on MLB.com about how the Reds hope it will energize him for the rest of the season. We’ll see.

Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Tyler Glasnow

The Dodgers acquired Glasnow via trade in December of last year. It’s sure looking like they won that one. Glasnow owns a 6-1 record with a 2.53 ERA on the season in 9 starts. Lefties are only hitting .160 against him in that time. Look at his statcast advanced metrics and you’ll probably not want to watch this game. 99th percentile in Pitching Run Value and Fastball Run value. 85th percentile or better in Breaking Run Value, xBA, Fastball Velo, and K %(33.6%!). Glasnow dominates. He was hit around only once so far against the Nationals a month ago giving up 6 earned runs over 5 IP. Last time out, he gave up one run on a HR in 7 IP against the Padres.

Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	SS Mookie Betts	.348
2	DH Shohei Ohtani	.364
3	1B Freddie Freeman	.297
4	RF Teoscar Hernandez	.243
5	3B Enrique Hernandez	.220
6	2B Gavin Lux	.194
7	LF Chris Taylor	.071
8	CF James Outman	.151
9	C Austin Barnes	.219

The Dodgers sure set the lineup like they expect an easy win. Lots of rotation. Max Muncy, Andy Pages, and Will Smith all get the day off. Very top heavy. Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman can do as much damage as most lineups put together. All I can say is – just sit back and enjoy some stellar baseball from these guys.

natu

Velocity isn’t a lifeline.

The struggles are back.

What’s next for Phillips?

Ford made HOW much in 3 weeks?

Cincinnati Reds LHP Andrew Abbott

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

St. Louis Cardinals RHP Kyle Gibson

St. Louis Cardinals Lineup Card

Cincinnati Reds RHP Graham Ashcraft

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

Los Angeles Dodgers LHP James Paxton

Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup Card

Cincinnati Reds RHP Frankie Montas

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

San Diego Padres RHP Matt Waldron

San Diego Padres Lineup Card

Cincinnati Reds RHP Nick Martinez

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card 5/22/24

San Diego Padres RHP Michael King

San Diego Padres Lineup Card

Cincinnati Reds LHP Andrew Abbott

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

San Diego Padres RHP Joe Musgrove

San Diego Padres Lineup Card

Cincinnati Reds Notebook

My Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

San Diego Padres Notebook

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup Card

Cincinnati Reds LHP Brent Suter

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Tyler Glasnow

Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup Card