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    HomeCincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers - May 17th, 2024

    Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers – May 17th, 2024

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    Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers – May 17th, 2024 – A glimmer of hope? A spark? Whatever you take away from it, last night’s win was incredible. The bullpen did their job and picked up for the rotation for a missed start by Lodolo. Elly did Elly things – 4 for 4 with 3 runs scored, a walk, and 4 steals. In fact, everyone except Steer and Fraley got on base. Tyler Stephenson had two RBI hits. Jeimer Candelario and Stuart Fairchild both came through with nice RBI XBHs. Just a complete domination of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Let’s break down how the Cincinnati Reds can repeat last night’s success.

    Cincinnati Reds RHP Frankie Montas

    Cincinnati Reds RHP Frankie Montas.
    Cincinnati Reds RHP Frankie Montas.

    No two ways about it – Montas’ last time out was a step in the wrong direction. He gave up 5 runs (4 earned) on 4.2 IP after a solid start out the time before. Montas’ velocity and movement have both picked up since his stint on the IL for a forearm contusion. Montas’ advanced statistics show a very middle of the road starter, but it is encouraging to see that his K % and his First Pitch Strike % are up tremendously. Look for him to not be shy and go after this Dodgers lineup. After all, what else can you do when they can all hit?

    Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

    BattersAverage
    12B Jonathan India.228
    2SS Elly De La Cruz.277
    3LF Spencer Steer.234
    4C Tyler Stephenson.255
    51B Jeimer Candelario.230
    6DH Mike Ford.182
    7CF Stuart Fairchild.205
    83B Santiago Espinal.194
    9RF Will Benson.196

    Writing out the lineup card feels so much better after a night with as much production as last night’s win. Candelario and Stephenson are on a tear lately. Elly went 4 for 4 and now we get to see him bat from the right handed batters box again. I personally feel he looks better every time we see him face a lefty. LHP mashing Stuart Fairchild is one to watch tonight. He’s been heating up of late as well and is always a wonder in CF too. Mike Ford really is your everyday DH folks.

    Los Angeles Dodgers LHP James Paxton

    Los Angeles Dodgers LHP James Paxton.

    The Dodgers acquired 35 year old Paxton via free agency this past offseason. An 11-year veteran, Paxton has put together a very solid career with a lifetime 3.64 ERA over 163 starts. His ERA is even better this year – 2.58 in 7 starts. Paxton has been steady, and has yet to really be knocked around. Interestingly though, he gives up a better average to lefties (.259 vs .213 against righties). Even more interestingly, his advanced statistics this season are TERRIBLE. He is literally below average in every single statistic except Extension off the mound – and honestly that doesn’t matter. He is in the SIXTH percentile for both K % and BB % (13.7% and 14.9% respectively).

    Walking more batters than you strikeout isn’t usually a recipe for success. If you took Paxton and put him on a team that did not hit as well as Los Angeles, he’d probably have 2-3 losses by now. His fastball and curveball both have positive run value and are a mean 1-2 punch though. His Batting Average Against in the first two innings is over .200 but then plummets until the fifth inning – he shuts you down if you don’t get to him early.

    Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup Card

    BattersAverage
    1SS Mookie Betts.343
    2DH Shohei Ohtani.360
    31B Freddie Freeman.292
    4C Will Smith.315
    5LF Teoscar Hernandez.243
    62B Gavin Lux.196
    7CF Andy Pages.267
    8RF Jason Heyward.214
    93B Enrique Hernandez.212

    The Dodgers are taking the Reds a little more seriously tonight. Smith and Pages are back in the lineup. It’s not easy to hold baseball’s best lineup to 2 runs. Don’t expect it again. Should be an offensive battle tonight.

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    Mike V is a lifelong Reds fan. A huge statistical nerd, Mike likes to analyze advanced statistics for both baseball and football. You can also catch his highlight edits on Nati Sports TikTok.

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