Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers – The Reds finally play the Brewers in their first set this year. The first thing that comes to mind is Elly De La Cruz stealing second, third, and then home. Maybe that’s because right next to my computer, I have my Topps Now card from that moment. Either way, the Cincinnati Reds are going to need that electric version of Elly and this whole lineup. Let’s take a look at how the Cincinnati Reds will match up against the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Reds come into the series just two games under .500 (33-35) and in second place in the NL Central. The Brewers sit alone at the top of the NL Central (48-20), but are 5-5 in their last 10 compared to Cincinnati’s 8-2 during that span. However, the Reds have really struggled with the Brewers going 6-13 against them in 2022 and 3-10 last year. There’s just something about their lineup the Reds can’t seem to figure out.
Hunter Greene will get the ball on the mound against Freddy Peralta tonight. Greene is on extra rest not having pitched since June 6th when he picked up a win against the Cubs. Greene is having easily his best year yet. Owning a 3.61 ERA, Greene is above average in Fastball Run Value (87th percentile), xBA (92nd percentile), Whiff % (81st percentile), and K % (74th percentile). What a drastic improvement from his 2023 numbers.
Peralta owns a 3.95 ERA, and had a rough outing last time out agains the Tigers – only going 3 1/3 innings after giving up 3 runs and 5 walks. Peralta gets more whiffs and strikeouts than Greene does actually, and he excels at inducing weak contact as well.
On Saturday, Andrew Abbott will face off against Bryse Wilson. As I’ve noted several times before, Abbott is pitching for contact this year and doing pretty well with that approach. He owns a 3.28 ERA and he’s in the 89th percentile for Hard Hit %. His Offspeed Run Value also puts him in the 87th percentile. Safe to say Abbott is here to stay unless his play falls off a cliff. A very solid 4th guy in any rotation.
Wilson shoved last season in 2023 going 6-0 with a sub 3 ERA. This season, he’s a bit more middle of the pack sporting a 3-3 record with a 4.19 ERA. Like Peralta, he had a tough time against the Tigers giving up 7 over just 4 1/3 innings.
On Sunday, Frankie Montas will pitch for the Reds against Colin Rea. Montas needs to turn it around. Or at least become more consistent. He was lights out against the Rockies a couple of weeks ago, but last time out he couldn’t even make it two innings, giving up 4 runs to the Cubs. There’s just nothing outside of some bright spots that suggest Montas was worth his contract over the offseason. Really hoping he can turn it around this weekend.
Rea is a pretty average starter, but always seems to have a field day against the Cincinnati Reds. His advanced statistics aren’t great. He’s well below average in everything by BB % and GB %. He’s in the 11th percentile for K % at 15.9%, the 12% percentile for Chase % with 23.8%, and the 7th percentile for xBA at .288. Basically, he doesn’t strike you out, he doesn’t make you miss – he just makes you hit it on the ground. All of that and he owns a 3.31 ERA.
Cincinnati Reds Notebook
The Reds sent OF Blake Dunn back down to AAA Louisville and recalled OF Nick Martini. They faced several LHPs the last couple of weeks which better suited Dunn, and now will face several RHPs coming up which makes more sense to roll with Martini.
If the Reds were ever going to pick a time to figure out the Brewers, it had better be now. At just two games under .500 and just a half game back from a wild card spot, the season is fragile. They should be able to lean on Jeimer Candelario who is batting .321 over his last seven games with 4 HRs in that time. However, the Cincinnati Reds will be hoping Elly De La Cruz can turn around his meager performance lately at .185 with 8 strikeouts over his last seven.
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