Connor Phillips has regressed exponentially

Connor Phillips, a name you’ve heard of by now, has been absolutely abysmal in AAA Louisville this year. There’s nothing positive to say about it other than, well, he’s still throwing hard. And in that same sentence, I could detail why that’s a bad thing…he’s not hurt. But he’s been this bad. Let’s get into it.

Velocity isn’t a lifeline.

You can throw 100 MPH like Connor Phillips can, but the beauty of baseball is that it doesn’t always matter, no matter how much MLB markets that it does. See, the beauty of baseball is that a batter has a benefit of the doubt, too. Balls & strikes. If that 100 MPH (Now is a good time to remind you it’s not a repeated 100, his fastball sits in the mid to upper 90s) is being thrown for a ball, and the batter gets 4 of them before he gets 3 strikes, he takes his base. For free. Call it the EBT of baseball, except this isn’t electronic, but he’s still eatin’ for free. I know you already know this, I’m being a sarcastic asshole to cope with the fact that one of my favorite pitching prospects we possess has been absolute ass, people. Long story short, Connor Phillips is back to being unable to throw a damn strike.

The struggles are back.

Any scout you’ve seen speak about Connor Phillips will tell you that his biggest downfall will always be lack of command. Him being back to the “old Connor” really is a surprise to no one that’s followed Phillips around. He came out of college with 40 grade command, he hasn’t been any better than that. His 2023 season was decent, but all in all, the inability to throw consistent strikes for him is real. Has he become another example of “prospect hugging?” – It’s known that last year many teams were asking about Connor Phillips availability, some of which, Nick Krall & the Cincinnati Reds front office consistently struck them down. Let’s hope that wasn’t a mistake…

Phillips has done nothing but regress thus far this year after making his MLB debut last year and pitching in some big time games down the stretch. I’ve noted he isn’t injured, and that’s where my worry lays… so far, this year:

Guys, it’s as bad as it reads. For fun, if you want to call it that, look below for a graph from April 20th’s start against the Iowa Cubs, and last night’s start against the Iowa Cubs. He has no idea where the ball is going. Repeated delivery consistency is there, and that’s what’s alarming to me. His release points remain the same, but the pitches are going, for the most part, nowhere near the strikezone. Folks, just using last night’s data, he only threw 34 pitches of the 89 total in the strikezone. 55 pitches were out of the strikezone. He only generated 29 swings on 89 total pitches. That’s disgusting. You can sniff all that data of last night’s start here

What’s next for Phillips?

I’d really like to see the Cincinnati Reds front office step in here and put him on the injured list before he completely loses his confidence. Let him throw side session BP until he can regularly throw strikes, then let him get back to it as it warms up some more. He is a super mental dude, you could see it last year where he BLAMED HIMSELF for the Cincinnati Reds not making the postseason. Connor, you made 5 starts in an emegency situation, not your fault my guy. He’s only 23 years old, no arm injuries, nothing to worry about just yet. Just need to keep finetuning the delivery and figure out the armslot that is going to have him throwing more strikes.

If he’s unable to throw consistent strikes throughout the rest of this year, it’s time to start converting him into a reliever, which is a big L, but a necessary one. Get that velocity back to the 100s, tune the secondaries. There is a LOT of Lucas Sims in his game, there’s seriously no better comparison. Arm slot, arsenal, size, everything is there. It will suck seeing him not start, but that is genuinely the last ditch effort to save an important arm and turn him into a valuable asset.

Connor Phillips is extremely easy to root for, and I will always do just that. Keep working, Connor, we need ya.