The Bengals, coming off of a 37-27 win against the Tennesee Titans, stand at 6-8 and are practically eliminated from the Postseason. However, with Joey B at the helm playing MVP football, there is always a chance. The Bengals don’t control their own destiny, but there is a reasonable path to the playoffs. Here’s how.
The Bengals MUST Win Out
The first and most obvious factor is that the Bengals must win out and finish 9-8. They have the Browns, the Broncos, and the Steelers to finish the regular season. The Browns now sit at 3-11. They are without Nick Chubb for the rest of the year, and still are going through QB woes. Jameis Winston was benched in favor of Dorian Thompson Robinson, who the Bengals likely see next week.
The Broncos bring the toughest challenge. Depending how their game goes on Thursday Night with the Chargers, the week 17 matchup could be huge in the Benglas odds. Their offense is 22nd in yards per game, but their defense is 8th in yards allowed per game. They also lead the league in sacks and 2nd in QB pressure rate. They’ll be a tough challenge for the Bengals.
The Bengals will head to Pittsburgh for their final regular season matchup, a game which likely consists of the Steelers B-team. If the Bengals sit at 8-8, I could see the Steelers playing their starters in hopes to spoil their division foe’s chances.
Nonetheless, the Bengals will need to bring their A-game in all 3 matchups at any chance of the postseason.
The Broncos, Colts, and Dolphins Must Lose
The Bengals currently sit as the 10th seed behind the Colts, Dolphins, Broncos, and Chargers. The Chargers own the head to head vs the Bengals, therefore we need the Broncos to lose out instead. In doing that, the Bengals would take the head to head mathchup. They play the Chargers on Thursday Night Football, who have the easier remaining schedule. Thus forcing the Bengals to root against Denver.
The Colts play the Titans, Giants, and Jaguars to close out their season. They’re not guaranteed to win any of those matchups, however they’ll likely be favored in all three. The Dolphins play 49ers, Browns, and Jets. Also likely to be favored in all three. But the inconsistency between the two teams, one loss for them both is possible.
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The Probabilities
The Bengals currently only have a 4% chance to make the playoffs, according to the New York Times models. If the Broncos lose all three and the Bengals win all three, the Bengals would have a whopping 85% chance to make it.
It’ll all depend on how well the Bengals perform as the season comes to a close. If I was a betting man, I’d always bet on Joe Burrow to find a way. The defense is finding a new groove also with young guys stepping up. Myles Murphy lead the team in pressures last week, the defense forced 8 turnovers, and the offense is still scoring 30+ ppg.
It’ll be an interesting finish. Let’s hope they close it out strong.
