It’s the MLB offseason, specifically, the GM meetings; that means there’s a ton of movement all over the place, like qualifying offers, trade rumors, and more. Nevermind the rumors though, we know some information about a Reds player: Nick Martinez.
Nick Martinez signed a 2 year contract with the Reds in the 2024 offseason worth about $26M – the kicker was that his agent, Scott Boras, included an opt-out mutual option clause in case he pitched well enough to earn another contract. Well, without a doubt, he did. However, the market because of all the unknowns amongst teams about their TV deals…has dropped dramatically. The Reds have offered Nick Martinez the $21,050,000 qualifying offer, and as of yesterday, he is likely to accept, per Jon Heyman of the NY Post.
Why that’s a “good” thing, in my view
A lot of people may see Nick Martinez at 34 years old and think “jeez, that’s pricey as heck,” but let me tell you, if you get the production, again, out of Martinez – it’s not. It’s rather cheap. He posted 4.0 brWAR and filled one of the Reds’ greatest needs, swingman. The Reds sought out to fill that exact ‘position,’ and they got the best one on the market last offseason, and he played like it.
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Injuries, more injuries, and even more injuries
One of the best examples of reason for hanging onto Martinez is because of all the arm injuries we already have suffered in Cincinnati and the season hasn’t even begun. So far, we know Brandon Williams is out for all of 2025, we know Julian Aguiar is out for all of 2025, and you can ALWAYS pack in some more trouble when it comes to the Reds. Hunter Greene has had his fair share of IL stints, Nick Lodolo hasn’t stayed healthy since he started losing his hair, Graham Ashcraft has been on and off the IL…long story short, Nick Martinez makes sense.
The Cincinnati Reds 2025 rotation, to start the year, likely looks like this:
- RHP Hunter Greene
- LHP Nick Lodolo
- LHP Andrew Abbott
- RHP Rhett Lowder
- ??? // Vet // Graham Ashcraft // Nick Martinez
It is plausibly true that Nick Martinez, for most part of the year, pitched better out of the bullpen than he did in the rotation. In September, he was absolutely nails, but I’m operating off of what he did the whole year, which was pitch better out of the bullpen. In August in 6 starts, he got beat around pretty badly, primarily bit by the homerun bug. But does it make sense to pay a ‘bullpen’ piece $21.05M?
Availability Has No Price.
That answer is yes. And it’s simple: Nick Martinez’s role as a swingman. He’s the perfect player we need, a guy that can come into a game in the 4th or 5th inning if a young guy is struggling, and finish it out while keeping his team close. For a large part of David Bell’s tenure, he never had someone like that. Martinez proved his worth in that role, too. He’s the perfect stop-gap to an injury happening in the rotation. Someone that can keep the team close. It’s a no brainer for me, and I hope he accepts the $21.05M QO, and if he doesn’t, oh well, we’ll get a compensatory draft pick out of him.
Worst comes to worst, the Reds likely will move to extending Nick Martinez through 2026, tagging on an additional $12-14M and potentially add a 2027 mutual option again with a buyout. That could get funky, but let’s play GM here to try to spin it to make it well worthwhile for the Reds longevity wise, while still remaining lucrative and reasonable for Martinez who could just take the $21.05M and run next year when financial forecast resonates for more teams…
Nick Martinez – 34
Total: $39,500,000 Gtd, potential $40,250,000
2025: $16,500,000
- 130 IP $500,000
- All Star Game $250,000
Mutual Opt ($3,500,000 buyout)
2026: $14,500,000
2027: $8,500,000
Why would this make sense for both sides? Well, for the Reds:
- It gives you another $3M-ish to play with on a very tight budget for 2025 (the TV deal paranoia is very real) and your team has a lot of holes it has to fill, still.
- The buyout is cheap enough to where it won’t strain you if Martinez ends up suckin’ out loud and you have to cut him loose.
For Nick Martinez, why it makes sense:
- You’re 34, this is likely to be your last contract, and you can bag an additional $18.5M guaranteed that you weren’t offered
- There’s incentives, coming off your career year, to make it make sense to take about $1,000,000 off than what was offered in the QO
- In case of arm injury or injury in general, the opt is mutual, but still puts you on the $20M spectrum for 2024.
Regardless of what happens, I think Nick Martinez is a weapon, no matter what rival GMs tell the Cincinnati Enquirer, and I think the Reds’ core is still going to be just fine if they end up having to pay $21,050,000 for his services for 2025’s season and he ends up walking the next year. I certainly hope what I proposed above is taken serious, but Scott Boras doesn’t give discounts, and yes – even $1,000,000 discounts. He’s already trying to run up Martinez’ market and it’s November.
