2024 MLB Draft: Cincinnati Reds Edition

“With the 2nd pick of the 2024 MLB draft, the Cincinnati Reds select …”

July 17th, 2024: Rob Manfred

Folks, we’re less than 3 months away from the 2024 MLB Draft. I found it would do you a tremendous service to provide a one stop shop at scenarios and liklihoods of what our Cincinnati Reds will potentially do with their pick. There’s many options I’m sure not everyone reading this even knew was possible, or plausible. Let’s get into some of my favorite prospect options, I’m going to list 6 total, and why they’d “fit” under each description. Go grab a coffee, let’s get to business. To remind every reader, the Reds pick 2nd overall this draft, right behind the Cleveland Guardians, after getting lucky for once in our life and hitting on the MLB Draft Lottery that was newly put in. We had a 0.9% chance to receive 2nd overall, and got it. The Reds will have $15,842,100 total to play with this draft.

1. Charlie Condon – 6’6″ 220 – 1B/OF Georgia

Charlie Condon started the spring on most prospect lists as a consensus top 5; most lists had him in the 4th overall or 5th overall region…until he just started going absolutely nuclear. In 181 PAs in 2024, he’s slashing .482/.586/1.110/1.695. Yes, you read all of these correctly, just look below if you don’t believe me. Absolutely…nuclear. 24 HRs and totaling 37 XBHs so far, and he’s walked more than he’s struckout. (32:25). You could argue he’s having one of the best collegiate seasons of all time, especially in the SEC. Here’s a fun note on Charlie Condon: He was a preferred WALK ON with the Georgia Bulldogs. That’s right, he wasn’t even a scholarship player. He redshirted his freshman year there to “put on weight.” He has, however, ALWAYS hit, even through highschool. I feel very certain that he will be the Cincinnati Reds pick at #2 IF and only IF he makes it there. A lot of folk in the industry believe the Guardians will take him. The only “knock” I can find on his game is he’s slow, very slow, this will hold him to a corner OF spot at best, and a likely DH. There is really nothing else to critique. His bat to ball skills are absolutely premiere, he has ridiculous power with his build, he isn’t a terrible defender…but he’s slow. I’ll take it. At the bottom of this article, I detail several scenarios in which the Reds may act on if Charlie Condon is not there.

2. Nick Kurtz – 6’5″ 240 – 1B/OF Wake Forest

To start off, Nati Sports believes Nick Kurtz is the best overall hitter in this draft. If the Reds can land him at #2, like they could be able to do, I think it’d be one of the most blessed days as a Cincinnati Reds fan as there’s been in a long, long time. I think the buzz behind the Guardians taking him 1st overall is very, very real, though. He started slowing down a little bit in 2024 due to teams not pitching to him and a little injury, which he’s become accustom to, but from 4/2-4/16, the dude has played 10 games, and he has a homer in 9 of the those 10 games. Multi homers in 4 of them. Please, do yourself a favor and look at what this guys overall collegiate stats read (as of 4/17/24) below… He is an absolute MENACE. Now, a knock you can find on Kurtz is his injury history. He had to sit out a bit in ’23 with a hip injury, and he sat out in ’24 with another injury as well, however, he has not missed a damn beat. Nick has a serious eye for the zone and with him being a very big dude, it’s important. I think Nick fits the Reds a little bit better than Condon because many scouts believe he can genuinely go and play RF at a positive clip, which would greatly increase his chances to break the big leagues quicker with the Reds. As you can see, Kurtz has not logged any ABs with a wooden bat, which many don’t think will matter. I personally don’t believe the Guardians will take him #1 overall decidedly until he plays a few games in the summer league, which he may opt NOT to do, to display his ability to hit with wood. With him being as good of a hitter as he is, I don’t think anyone would expect him to do anything but hit, even with wood, but it’s certainly a difference.

3. Chase Burns – 6’3″ 210 – RHP Wake Forest

Chase Burns is, in my opinion, the best starting pitcher in this draft. Many would compare his stuff to Paul Skenes, who went #1 overall last year in the 2023 MLB draft to the Pittsburgh Pirates, and that comparison alone is enough to state such. Chase doesn’t have as good of control as Skenes does, but with enough tweaking, I don’t have any doubt he could reach that level. Having a 60 grade fastball, and a 70 grade slider straight out of college will at the minimum provide a steady major league career, even with sloppy command. His changeup is 50 grade and useable, but many scouts believe he will need to reconfigure it to turn it into another plus pitch. It will be vital to his MLB career that he does, should he remain a starter. Selecting Chase Burns here would be a very strategic move, that I’ll highlight on below the list of players. (Hint: Pool $$$)

4. Travis Bazzana – 6’0″ 200 – 2B Oregon State

Travis Bazzana is an absolute dog. Dude lives and breathes baseball, and for anyone out there in evaluation, you know how important it is. 80 grade Love for ball is real. I can hear one of you boomers out there already, “Oh, brother! Not another damn infielder!” and…well, I understand. And honestly, I think I’d be a little disappointed in the Reds picking Bazzana here unless they were able to get him WAY underslot, because he hasn’t played any other position, and would be a project. I think he has the athleticism to play in the outfield as well, so I’d be willing to take the risk, only if they were able to get him underslot, as I mentioned above, for reasons I mention below in a passage labeled “Scenarios”. Travis is a native of Hornsby, Australia. He’d be the first Aussie to make the bigs with the Reds, should they draft him, and that’d be a pretty KOOL story, bro. Travis is easily the third best hitter in this draft, and he’s going to make one hell of a big leaguer, the bat is too good. So good, he sets the Oregon State HR record, you know, the school that has produced 3 1st rounders including Adley Rutschman? Pretty good! What stands out to me is the success he has had with wooden bats in the summer leagues. I really like this kid.

5. Jac Caglianone – 6’5″ 250 – LHP/1B/DH Florida

Big Stick Jac Caglianone. The next “Shohei Ohtani“, they say. The dude pumps triple digits with a 70 grade fastball, and hits 500 foot homers with 65 grade power. What’s not to like about that? Well, a couple things, if you’re an evaluator. There’s a whole lot of questionmarks around Jac’s game – does he continue being a 2 way player, does he go into the DH/1B role? He’s already had his UCL repaired, which could scare teams about his pitching. If it’s left up to me, I’m staying away from Jac, but there is certainly a possibility of the Reds being able to sign him WAY underslot at 2nd overall. I don’t see them doing it, even though he’s a really, really fun baseball player. The majority of his highlights are with the bat. The last “two way” player to be drafted high overall was Brendan McKay out of Louisville that simply never got his feet on the ground in pro ball after many injuries. I’m staying away from this one.

6. Konnor Griffin – 6’4″ 205 – OF Jackson Prep (MS HS)

The sleeper pick. Konnor Griffin is a premiere talent. According to Joe Doyle, the Cincinnati Reds have sent several scouts to go watch Konnor Griffin play. Konnor is already 6’4″ 205 at 17 years old, with 60 grade power…he hasn’t even filled into his body yet. The 65 grade speed gives him genuine 30-30 potential. He is currently an LSU commit, and it’d be very rare for the Reds to take a highschool prep product, but the “scenarios” I’ve mentioned multiple times could REALLY give them a reason to. Konnor is a genuine 5 tool prospect, and easily the best prep player there is in this draft. A true physical specimen. 6’4″ and running like he does is really hard to pass up on. He hit .548/.693/.976/1.669 his senior year in HS with 38 BBs compared to 8 Ks. He had 7 HRs and stole 68 bases. This kid is a huge, huge talent, and the Reds may have $2,500,000 reasons to take him 2nd overall and let him marinate. Check out this video of Konnor hitting a TANK at 14 years old:

Scenarios the Reds may act on in this draft

When you’re picking 2nd overall with a bonus pool like the Reds have, & only possess two picks inside the top 51, there’s a whole lot of things you can do to maneuver the draft. If you can’t get Charlie Condon, who has shown, statistically, to be the best hitter all around (even if I think Kurtz is the most complete,) then this is a route they could take:

• Draft + sign a lesser prospect at 2 overall, (or someone that wouldn’t of normally gone that high; Griffin or Caglianone, for example) for under the allotted value of the 2nd pick ($9,785,000) and then lure a big time HS prospect away from their college commitment with the leftover cash at 51 if the draft board falls that way.
• For example, in 2023, the Reds were able to sign Rhett Lowder for $575,000 less than what the 6th overall pick was worth ($6.27m) and ended up paying Sammy Stafura (Clemson, at the time commit) $2.5m when the slot value for his spot he was drafted was only worth $2m; this type of stuff happens all the time when a big time guy falls.

What would Nati do at 2nd overall?

I fully expect Nick Kurtz to be there at #2 overall; I just feel like Charlie Condon has played his way into the bona fide 1st overall pick to the Guardians, even though several mocks have come out lately from different outlets suggesting that the Guardians are more infatuated with Kurtz. Long story short, I’m staying safe and taking one of those two this draft. It feels like the Guardians could sign Nick Kurtz for $1-$1.5m under slot and then sign another big time prospect at #34 and if there is one of the two more likely to sign for less $$ it’d be Kurtz, I’d think. The MLB Draft is all about the ultimate finesse.

Conclusion

One of Nick Kurtz or Charlie Condon will be a Cincinnati Reds player by the end of the year, and they’re both 65 grade prospects on day 1, IMO. With that being said, we’ll add another top 100 prospect to our system. A system that’s still ranked top 10 to this day on every major publisher, even after all those top 100 graduations last year. It’s a great time to be a Reds fan!