The Cincinnati Reds returned home from a road trip out west and seem to have forgotten their bats. After a quiet display in last night’s 3-0 loss, the Reds match up against John Means for his first start of the 2024 campaign.
Andrew Abbott
Abbott comes off a loss to the Texas Rangers last week in which he was rocked in the first inning. The score lines have not been kind to Abbott this year even with his modest 3.27 ERA. Through 6 starts in 2024, advanced stats show a shift in Abbott’s style from 2023 – he’s giving up more contact, but the contact is significantly weaker. Abbott’s whiff rate is down roughly 7%, but his Hard Hit% is also down about 11%. The most concerning trend is a 8% decline in Chase% – his off-speed has not been well placed in 2024. On the other side, Abbott’s BABIP is his best of his career – even in the minors. The Orioles hit significantly better against LHP with an impressive team OBP of .374. Abbott will need to find his form and get back to hitting his spots with his off-speed stuff.
John Means
Means has not pitched a meaningful amount of innings since 2021 as he’s been dealing with shoulder and elbow issues – receiving Tommy John surgery in 2022. The Orioles Opening Day starter in 2019, Means is a career 3.72 ERA pitcher with a losing record. Don’t let that fool you – he’s got a serious changeup that gets a lot of whiffs, and he doesn’t walk guys – like at all. His whole career he’s been in the 90th percentile or better on BB%. We’ll see if he’s on his game for his first start in 2024, or if the Reds can get to him.
How the Reds Win
The Reds need to get to Means early. The bats were too quiet last night, but it just takes a couple early hits to get them going. Candelario is a career .375 batter against Means on 8 ABs. Only Espinal has also faced him – he’s 2-2. Abbott needs a quiet first inning and to hit his spots with his off-speed stuff to get some strikeouts. Pay attention to Elly De La Cruz against Means. He’s been batting better from the right side batter’s box as of late.
