Last season left Reds fans with mixed emotions.
They made the playoffs! That was great to see. But I think anyone without fan blinders on can agree a lot of that played into a complete collapse from the New York Mets.
Nonetheless, give credit where credit is due: making the playoffs is not something to be upset about.
But after the Dodgers showed they were basically just playing a completely different sport than the Reds (as they did to most teams), there was one clear issue.
The offense was miserable.
How bad was it you ask?
Now, I’m not a guy who thinks WAR is end all, be all. But I do think it’s a great representation to how your guys stack up with the rest of the league.
What does WAR exactly mean? Below is a scale that shows how each WAR value translates to the type of player someone is.
WAR Scale (Position Players & Pitchers)
- 0-1 WAR – Replacement level
- 1–2 WAR – Role player
- 2–4 WAR – Everyday Player
- 4–6 WAR – All-Star level
- 6+ WAR – MVP / Cy Young candidate
Now let’s see how the Reds hitters stacked up to this scale
- Elly De La Cruz – 3.6 WAR
- TJ Friedl – 2.3 WAR
- Noelvi Marte – 1.4 WAR
- Tyler Stephenson – 1.3 WAR
- Austin Hays – 0.8 WAR
- Miguel Andujar – 0.6 WAR
- Will Benson – 0.6 WAR
- Spencer Steer – 0.6 WAR
- Sal Stewart – 0.5 WAR
- Jake Fraley – 0.4 WAR
- Ke’Bryan Hayes – 0.3 WAR
- Matt McLain – 0.0 WAR
- Jose Trevino – -0.2 WAR
- Gavin Lux – -0.2 WAR
- Santiago Espinal – -1.4 WAR
When you put this list on that scale, that’s enough to make you puke. 11/15 guys are deemed “replacement level players”.
So according to this scale, the Reds had basically two solid or good starters: Elly De La Cruz and TJ Friedl. And two role players: Tyler Stephenson and Noelvi Marte.
So one would think, heading into this offseason coming off a playoff appearance, the one area you’re absolutely positively going to improve would be your offense.
Nick Krall? Nah. Give him more pitching.
Now, I’m not going to complain about the guys he’s brought in. They are solid bullpen depth pieces that will 100% make the pitching staff better.
But looking at that WAR data above and how it stacks up to the rest of the league would be enough to tell you a change on offense is needed.
Don’t get me started on the whole Kyle Schwarber thing. There’s a lot to unpack there. That was the single most stupid decision I’ve ever seen any of my favorite teams ever make. From the decision to not sign him then to acting like he was an exception because he would “sell tickets” is hilarious. An offer never existed.
The point is, the Reds are in an identity crisis.
You play in one of, if not THE MOST hitter friendly ball park, your hitting was abysmal the year before, and your approach to the offseason is to bolster the pitching staff.
Tito Francona quite literally told us yesterday that the offense is going to suck.
“We’re not going to led the league in runs, is my guess. That’s just being honest.”
– Tito Francona
Well yeah… you have all the same exact guys who were awful offensively coming back.
Nick Krall decided to ‘run it back’.
What’s frustrating above all is you have a generational talent in Elly De La Cruz in your organization that should you give every single reason in the world to be aggressive and attack areas of need with urgency.
But nope, not the Reds. Not Nick Krall.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m excited as hell for the season. I will be there each and everyday (if i can) to root them on.
But we as Reds fans better get ready to win a bunch of 2-0, 3-2 ball games.
