Don’t forget to subscribe to the newsletter to stay updated on all Reds news.
In his latest at MLB.com, Jared Greenspan acknowledges the long odds facing the Reds in 2026. They stand at a paltry 19.7% chance to make the playoffs this year using FanGraphs data. That’s due to a few things according to him.
The first is that the Reds lineup still lacks the pop necessary to really threaten the top teams in baseball. And as we all know that deficiency starts in the outfield, with Cincinnati’s outfielders ranked “T-25th in projected WAR in left field, T-25th in center field, and 30th in right field.” This is even with the addition of slugger Eugenio Suarez.
At the end of the day it’s the Reds rotation that is their best chance to defy the doomsayers and make the playoffs. Their starters rank “fifth in projected WAR (14.8)” and are set up so well with youth, power, and finesse. It’s everything you could ever hope for in any rotation.
The 2025 Cincinnati starters were sixth in the NL in ERA (3.85), second in WHIP (1.17), third in strikeouts and fourth in innings. Their 69 quality starts were tied for second most. And almost all of those pitchers are back this year.
The keys to success according to Greenspan are ones that Cincinnati fans are well familiar with, and they all focus on the Reds’ bats. Namely, the hope is that our young players will continue to perform well (Elly De La Cruz) and that others will break out (Sal Stewart).
FanGraphs projects Elly to have a .262/.338/.459 slash line and to produce 25 home runs and 41 stolen bases, resulting in a 115 wRC+. This is a projected 4.7 fWAR. As for Sal, he’s expected to slash .264/.328/.440 with 18 home runs and 69 RBIs, resulting in a 109 wRC+ and a 1.5 fWAR. And so it’s no secret that Elly, Sal, and Suarez are going to be the ones that this offense counts on for power and the to drive in the runs this team so desperately needs support its stellar pitching staff.
But there are more reasons to believe that the Reds are better than their odds projections.
(Video Courtesy of the Cincinnati Reds)
Firstly, Noelvi Marte is still getting comfortable in right field. The FanGraphs estimates of him as one of the worst starters at that position in baseball seem a bit grim. Yes, his wRC+ (30) fell off a cliff in September and October last season, but his July and August numbers in that area (116 and 133) show there is more promise for him than he perhaps gets credit for. A full offseason and spring should allow him to adjust and maybe even thrive.
Matt McLain is now even further removed from his prior injuries. He has shown that he has the talent to be an impact player, and a fresh start in 2026 could be in the cards for the Reds second baseman. Tyler Stephenson is just a year removed from being a 3.1 WAR player with a wRC+ of 113.
(Video Courtesy of the Cincinnati Reds)
The fact that the Reds made the playoffs in 2025 with so many batters that FanGraphs projections are so down on is revealing. Yes it is a testament to how good Cincinnati’s pitching staff has been. But it also reveals just how much the Reds can turn the odds upside down if just a few players outpace their extremely negative outlooks. Which in the cases of at least Marte, McLain, and Stephenson, they’ve shown the fact that they can do so based on past performances.
The Reds beat the odds in 2025 and it looks like to be taken seriously in 2026 they are going to have to do the exact same thing.
