The 2026 Reds began the season 20-11, but since that time have dropped 20 of their last 31 games and now sit in the dead even purgatory of .500, at 31-31.
The latest implosion last night was yet another exercise in bullpen futility. After jumping out to a 3-0 lead in the first inning, the Cardinals scored 10 unanswered runs, with six of them coming against the Reds bullpen, which struggled yet again.
In less than two innings of work, Brock Burke, Zach Maxwell, and Luis Mey allowed six runs on five hits to nuke the game from orbit. It was a scene that Reds fans have come to know all too well as the team has continued to slide during the month of May, and now June.
And it will likely only get worse.
According to FanGraphs, this season the Reds bullpen ranks last in BB/9 (5.78), 29th in WAR (-1.4), 29th in FIP (5.28), 26th in HR/9 (1.39) and 28th in ERA (5.11). It’s safe to say that no lead is safe after the starter is pulled. And most of their pitchers have either failed to develop or have regressed significantly.
Zach Maxwell has an ERA of 16.20, roughly the size of Great American Ballpark. He’s given up nine earned runs, ten hits, and five walks over only 5.0 innings of work. Luis Mey has been just as bad, despite some promising talent. He has posted a 7.27 ERA, allowing seven earned runs and ten walks across 8.2 innings, as he still lacks control despite his years of trying to improve in that department.
Tony Santillan, once one the Reds most dependable arms, has fallen off a cliff this year. His 6.65 ERA is the worst of any reliever on the team who has thrown at least 20 innings. Opponents have lit into him, tagging him for 17 earned runs, 25 hits, and nine home runs.
The lone bright spot last night was reliever Zach McCambley who tossed 2.1 innings of scoreless ball, striking out two and allowing just a single hit. And there are also a few other faint rays of light if you look hard enough. Sam Moll is also looking solid on the year, posting a 2.39 ERA over 26 innings, along with Pierce Johnson was 2-1 with a 3.27 ERA during his 24 appearances before going on the injured list with right elbow inflammation.
But the reality of the situation is that the Reds are going to have to rely on some combination of the likes of Maxwell, Mey, and Santillan in games to come. There simply aren’t enough good bullpen arms left at the big league level to hide the bad ones.
That is where Terry Francona must show is salt by being smart about who he uses and when, because the margins are going to be extremely thin moving forward. To date he has made some perplexing decisions, especially as it pertains to continuing to use Santillan in high leverage situations despite his dropoff in production. The hope is that he can competently manage the end of these games and put together a serviceable plan that can limit the damage and keep things as close as possible. But to do that he’s going to have to face up to the fact that most of the relievers the Reds have available simply can’t close when it matters most.
Getting Graham Ashcraft and Emilio Pagan will surely help, but let’s not forget that even at the time they were injured they were hardly “lock down” stoppers. Still, any upgrade could make a world of difference given the depths of futility we are seeing at the end of games this year.
