The Bengals are going international this week, taking on the Atlanta Falcons in Madrid. There are plenty of pivotal storyline to watch in this one. Joe Burrow is absolutely lighting up the scoreboard with help from some of the usual suspects. The Falcons played in the midst of what seemed like a monsoon and it did not go well. But what does that mean for a Cincinnati defense that was nearly out-dueled by struggling Cam Ward and the Titans?
Joe Burrow Is Playing Like The MVP
Whatever else can be said about the Bengals, no one can question that Joe Burrow is having a MVP type season thus far. He comes into the game leading the league with 20 touchdown passes. Against Tennessee he threw for more than 450 yards with five passing touchdowns and a critical rushing score when the Bengals needed it most. He joined Norm Van Brocklin as the first to have such a stat line since 1951.
Over his last three games, Burrow has 14 touchdown and just three interceptions, as the Bengals offense has exploded in recent weeks. They look to continue that upward trend against a Falcons team coming off one of the strangest games of the season and one of their worst performances.
The Falcons Washed Out In Tampa
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers shut out the Falcons 16-0 on Sunday, becoming the first NFL team to win without completing a pass since the Buffalo Bills in 1974. It was also the first double-digit victory of its kind since 1945. It was hardly the game Atlanta looked to have prior to an international game across the ocean.
With just 13:35 left in the second quarter, the Buccaneers abandoned the pass completely, not out of desperation, but with good reason. Their ground game did all the heavy lifting as they finished with 56 rushes for 324 yards, a franchise single-game record. Every time their backs carried it, they averaged 5.8 yards. Bucky Irving carried 27 times for 170 yards and a touchdown. Kenny Gainwell added 140 yards on 25 carries. Both were career highs.
On the flip side, Atlanta managed just 99 rushing yards, and its 225-yard deficit on the ground was the largest rushing total the Falcons have allowed this century. Atlanta came in with the league’s fourth-best rush defense but Bijan Robinson was held to just 76 yards on 19 carries.
Through the downpour, Michael Penix Jr. went just 8-for-24 for 125 yards and threw a career-high four interceptions. He had thrown three interceptions in nine starts last year and only one this season before Sunday. His total EPA of -0.87 was a career low and the 22nd-worst single-game mark by an NFL quarterback in the past 10 years.
The game came a week after he was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week.
The Falcons finished the game 0-for-12 on third down and gained 4 yards on 10 plays of third-and-2 or shorter or fourth-and-2 or shorter.
Atlanta’s Rushing Game Has Gone Quiet
The Falcons have lost three of its last four games, and Robinson has not topped 86 rushing yards in any of them. He still leads the NFL with 780 rushing yards on 150 carries (5.2 per attempt) and four touchdowns.
His two best games came in Weeks 3 and 4: 194 yards on 29 carries with two touchdowns against Green Bay, and 145 yards on 19 carries with two touchdowns against New Orleans. Things have stagnated recently, though, as the Falcons rank 28th in run-game EPA over the past month at -18.87.
Depending on how you look at it, this is either a promising downward trend the Bengals are happy to see, or it means Robinson is going to be looking to have a bounce back game for the ages. Considering Tony Pollard rushed for 117 yards and 2 touchdowns on 21 carries last week, Cincinnati fans can be forgiven if they’re a bit nervous to see Atlanta’s ground game potentially get going.
The Bengals Defense Must Reverse Course
Coming into the game against Cincinnati, Cam Ward was 22nd with 1,179 passing yards. He was second worst among starting quarterbacks with just 5.7 yards per attempt and an explosive play rate at only 10.4%. But he looked extremely comfortable on Sunday. Ward completed 26-of-40 passes for 304 yards and two touchdowns in the narrow loss as the Titans scored 36 points.
Cincinnati’s defense has improved from 30th in scoring last season to 14th entering Week 9 so that performance against Tennessee was a bit concerning.
But part of the issue is the slow starts for the Bengals offense in recent weeks. It will undoubtedly help that the Falcons average 10.5 first-half points good for only 20th in the league. And the Bengals actually play reasonably well in the first two quarters of games, allowing just 10.9 first-half points per game, 15th in the league.
Judging Penix by his performance in a driving rain is probably not fair, as he has shown the ability to be an effective quarterback at times this year. And so expecting him to struggle in Madrid isn’t prudent, either. But at the same time there’s no question the Falcons have to be a low as they could be coming off such an impotent performance.
If there was any opponent the Bengals need to put away early, Atlanta is that opponent.
