The Bengals (5-2) come to Madrid with a chance to reach 6-2 for the first time since their 8-0 start in 2015. The Falcons (3-5) are coming off a rough loss to Tampa Bay and sit in a crowded NFC South. Cincinnati’s offense has been explosive, but the key to this game is whether its defense can slow Bijan Robinson.
The Real Test: Stopping Bijan Robinson
Robinson was quiet last week against Tampa Bay, and yer still leads the league in rushing and powers the NFL’s fifth-ranked ground game. On outside-zone runs he averages a league-best 6.5 yards per carry with a 53.2% success rate. He is also hard to bring down. He averages 4.3 yards per carry when hit at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Robinson is the man that the Falcons will lean on to try to punish the Bengals defense and eat up the clock. It will all be with an eye on keeping Burrow, Chase, and Higgins off the field for as long as possible.
A perfect example of this was in Atlanta’s 35-14 win over the Packers on September 24. Robinson had 213 scrimmage yards and the Falcons had the ball for almost a full 15 minutes more than Green Bay.
But against another high-powered offense in the Chicago Bears, they possessed the football for less than 20 minutes of game time. The Bears scored 31 points and had possession for over 40 minutes.
Even though they haven’t always been consistent, Cincinnati’s front is better against the run than its overall numbers suggest. The Bengals lead the league with a 24.5% stuff rate on designed runs and hold outside-zone runs to a 31.7% stuff rate. They allow a second-fewest 0.7 yards per carry when they make initial contact at or behind the line. The concern is that they have allowed 5.1 yards per carry over the last three games, second most in the NFL, and rank 29th in yards per carry allowed.
The Bengals know just how important it is to control the line of scrimmage. Defensive tackle Jonathan Allen said Friday that stopping a back like Robinson will take all 11 defenders:
“We can’t rely on one person to get the job done,” Allen said. “You got to throw bodies at them. You got to swarm. You got to play with great effort. So it’s going to take everybody to do their job and be consistent and patient, and we’re excited for that challenge.”
WR 2 Is A Weapon
Joe Burrow leads the league in completion rate (73.0%), passing yards per game (302.1) and touchdown passes (20). Only four Super Bowl-era quarterbacks have led the league in all three categories in one season, and Burrow is on pace to join them. The offense has scored 78 points over its last six quarters. It also ranks second in scoring and first in third-down offense, and it is in the top 10 in total yards.
And everyone knows the two biggest reasons why Burrow is having the success he is this year, and the statistics back that up. His passer rating is 132.3 when throwing to Tee Higgins and 113.6 when throwing to Ja’Marr Chase.
Higgins is showing the league exactly why the Bengals were right to pay himlike a WR1. Through seven games, he has 43 catches for 726 yards and four touchdowns. He ranks eighth in receptions, second in receiving yards and eighth in touchdown catches. His averages of 6.1 catches and 103.7 yards per game are career highs.
Over a full season, that pace works out to 104 receptions, 1,763 yards and 10 touchdowns, a line only six players in NFL history have reached: Jerry Rice, Isaac Bruce, Antonio Brown, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
He and Chase have identical target and reception totals, but Higgins has 234 more yards. His 11.90 yards per target, 59.0% first-down rate per target, 36.1% explosive-play rate per target and 68.9% success rate are all better than anything he has posted in a prior season.
And he is a clutch safety blanket for Joe Burrow with the way he hauls in contested catches. His average separation on targets is 2.5 yards (10th lowest among 138 qualified receivers). Even so, he ranks 10th in tight-window receiving yards and third in tight-window catch rate (60.0%, minimum 10 targets).
And those are skills that should be on display this week. The Falcons play man coverage at the NFL’s 10th-highest rate, and PFF rates Higgins as the league’s No. 1 receiver against such coverage.
Atlanta ranks 24th in DVOA against WR2s and gives up 54.6 receiving yards per game to them. It has allowed the ninth most air yards and 23 explosive passes.
Atlanta’s downfield coverage has had its share of successes. It allows just 2.0 yards of separation on targets 10 or more yards past the line of scrimmage and forces tight windows on 34.8% of those throws. It has also allowed zero touchdown passes on throws of more than 20 air yards.
Injury News And Notes
Atlanta is getting healthier in the secondary. A.J. Terrell, C.J. Henderson and Billy Bowman are healthy together for the first time since September, and edge rusher James Pearce Jr. is expected back to pressure Burrow.
And in extremely positive injury news for the Bengals, it looks like corner DJ Turner will be good to go. He suffered a heel injury late in the fourth quarter of last week’s game but practiced in the lead up to the Madrid and appears healthy.
In addition, this matchup includes a family storyline. Twin brothers Chase Brown of the Bengals (101 scrimmage yards last game) and Sydney Brown of the Falcons (28 tackles, one tackle for loss, one pass defensed and a forced fumble) meet for the second time in their NFL careers.
The Bottom Line
FanDuel lists the Falcons as 3-point underdogs, and the Bengals have won three straight. Burrow, Higgins and Chase give Cincinnati a clear edge in the air.
If Zac Taylor and Joe Burrow can avoid a slow start, and limit the damage Bijan Robinson can do, they should leave Spain with an international win.
