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    Home Blog Page 21

    Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs – June 1st, 2024

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    Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs

    Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs today – June 1st, 2024 – It is JUNE, my dudes & dudettes. That means the schedule is set to open up a little more, that means Noelvi Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand are set to be back, that means the weather gets warmer and more homeruns are hit, that means…the Reds play a LOT of divisional games coming up and ground can be made up. But they have to keep winning. Shocker, right?

    Cincinnati Reds RHP Hunter Greene

    Cincinnati Reds RHP Hunter Greene

    Hunter Greene has been an entirely new pitcher in 2024, and that shouldn’t scare anybody, he’s been in his BAG. He mowed down the Dodgers lineup although he wasn’t even as efficient as he’s been on the year, only throwing 68 out of 107 of his pitches for strikes. He held the Doyers to 5 hits and 1 run through 6 innings pitch. On the year, he currently sits at 2.3 brWAR, AKA the Cincinnati Reds most valuable player as of June 1st, just in front of Elly de La Cruz. Hunter is 90th percentile or above in xERA & xBA and fastball velo. Considering he’s still learning as he goes, this is incredible. His fastball run value is also in the 97th percentile, however, his breaking and offspeed value are quite worse, and in the bottom 30 percentile in all of MLB. The kid just needs to keep polishing his secondaries, and this is a genuine front line ACE we have and have prayed for. I think he is due for a bad game, it’s going to be nippy out there and rainy, we’ll see if he has his stuff today or not.

    Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card (TBA)

    BattersAverage
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    Cincinnati Reds 6/1/24 Lineup

    TJ Friedl came back yesterday and had a big time insurance run RBI that helped propel the Reds to a win early on in a series again. It was textbook Terry, let a ball run to him, slap it the other way. Good sign of what’s hopefully to come.

    Elly is batting .216 in the month of May. That is the most concerning thing by far. The new big metric bat speed has Elly in the 89th percentile, but we already knew he would be up there. The problem is clear. He whiffs over 30% of the time. Doesn’t matter how fast your bat moves if you can’t make contact. He needs to slow the at-bat down and wait on the ball – he’s striking out on offspeed stuff more than anything else. Tonight facing a LHP likely won’t yield better results. We’re going to need some better production from Stuart Fairchild tonight, and I’m going to loop Steer in here as well. This is a good matchup for him.

    Chicago Cubs LHP Justin Steele

    Chicago Cubs’ LHP Justin Steele

    Justin Steele, as I predicted, has not been the Justin Steele many Chicago Cubs fans thought they’d be getting this year. He was incredible last year, no secret about it, received several Cy Young votes, even, but he’s been getting hit HARD this year so far. If you’re a Cubs fan, you know that they haven’t won any of his last few starts dating back to last year – but there’s something to be positive about here tonight, the Reds haven’t fared well against LHP at all, and the only guy that *should* be in the lineup tonight that’s had great success is Tyler Stephenson. His career ERA against Cincinnati says he should get shitted on tonight, but I don’t see it happening, personally. 7.53 ERA in 8 games, 6 starts – the Reds have a team OPS of .967 against him. The majority of this damage against him came against players no longer donning Cincinnati across their chest, however, and shouldn’t be a reason to bet against him. And I say he hasn’t been the “same” Steele very lightly…he’s just a few bad pitches away from being stout as can be, K% is normal, not walking guys, there’s just a lot of batted balls finding their way.

    Chicago Cubs Lineup Card (TBA)

    BattersAverage
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    Chicago Cubs’ June 1st, 2024 lineup

    Honestly, the Cubs lineup has not been too much better than the Reds. That is not a surprise when you see that the Cubs expected wins on the season is the same as Cincinnati’s. The Cubs will load their lineup tonight with a lot of LHP in anticipation of breaking up Hunter Greene’s great 2024 campaign. We’ll see how it works out for them…

    Cincinnati Reds beat Chicago Cubs May 31st, 2024

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    Santiago Espinal Celebrates
    Santiago Espinal and Elly De La Cruz Celebrate a win at Wrigley Field

    Reds beat Cubs:The Cincinnati Reds have now won the first game of the last 5 series with the win over the Chicago Cubs today at Wrigley Field. Graham Ashcraft was on the mound, whom had run support once again. The Reds forced Javier Assad out a little bit early, as he entered the 5th inning with above 90 pitches.

    Ian Happ, a literal Reds killer.

    The games scoring started out with an Ian Happ homer. Who would’ve guessed…His lifetime OPS against the Cincinnati Reds now sits at 1.056 overall. It was his 30th overall homer against the Reds in career, simply absurdity…


    Reds play small ball to tie it

    Tyler Stephenson had a big day today at Wrigley, he got the scoring started with an RBI single to the opposite field scoring Spencer Steer after a walk, and eventually Jake Fraley, whom singled, came around on a single by DH Nick Martini who has looked better of late.

    Tyler Stephenson and Nick Martini RBIs

    Graham Ashcraft is having command issues again and it showed – after two guys got on, Yan Gomes on a 0-2 count hit by pitch, and a hit, David Bell went and yanked him for Fernando Cruz who didn’t have his greatest splitters today. Cruz ended up walking Gomes in to give the Cubs a 3-2 lead headed into the 6th inning.


    Bell pushed the right buttons today

    David Bell went to his bench on several occasions to try to get a spark, and boy did he get one, probably from one of the least likely candidates for the situation… The Cubs went to Drew Smyly (LHP) and the Reds countered with Santiago Espinal, and boy did he deliver on a first pitch hanger, right after I tweeted “man, the Reds literally do not hit homers on the road anymore” – you all can thank me for that one.

    Santiago Espinal hits a go ahead homer

    Alexis Diaz shaky after some insurance from Friedl

    TJ Friedl came up with a big time insurance run in the 9th inning slapping a patented hard ground ball past the shift giving the Reds a 5-3 lead, then the Cincinnati Reds tried to get funky and give the game up after some more Alexis Diaz struggles… but Jacob Hurtubise and Elly De La Cruz came up CLUTCH. Reds win. Look at this hosepiece to save the game and give the Reds a 2-11 record on the year in 1 run games:

    MLB Pipeline Update: Cincinnati Reds Have 4 Top 100 Prospects, still.

    The Cincinnati Reds Brutal Start to 2024 – We should’ve seen it coming.

    The Reds 2023 Most Valuable Player is BACK! And some more moves…

    Who Is The “Fastest” Team In Major League Baseball?

    Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs – May 31, 2024

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    Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs

    Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs – May 31, 2024 – The Cincinnati Reds fly into Chicago 8 games under .500 and with a very important stretch of games incoming if they want a shot at making any noise. Such a confounding team – they sweep the Dodgers, then drop a series to the Cardinals. The most concerning thing recently has been Elly’s performance. Can Cincinnati’s star turn it around against the Cubs?

    Cincinnati Reds RHP Graham Ashcraft

    Cincinnati Reds RHP Graham Ashcraft.
    Cincinnati Reds RHP Graham Ashcraft.

    Ashcraft was rocked last time out against the Dodgers giving up 5 runs, but still added a W to his tally with some incredible run support. The highest ERA, but the most wins among starters, Ashcraft gets the most run support by far. He continues to be what he has always been – a middle of the rotation guy that gets a lot of groundballs. His main issue is getting ambushed on his cutter early in counts – he can’t get to his slider. Ashcraft has not had an outing without giving up a run since 05/01, so expect a run or two early unless he can clamp down.

    Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

    BattersAverage
    1CF TJ Friedl.160
    2SS Elly De La Cruz.249
    33B Jeimer Candelario.224
    41B Spencer Steer.221
    5RF Jake Fraley.279
    6C Tyler Stephenson.241
    7DH Nick Martini.194
    82B Jonathan India.222
    9LF Will Benson.196

    Give it a series or two for TJ to get settled in again. Two injuries, coming back and then going back on the IL immediately is not easy to readjust after. Stephenson has cooled down a bit, but we can think Bell for part of that – benching him every third day. India is .300 over his last 7 – watch out (if he’ll take that bat off his shoulder).

    Elly is batting .216 in the month of May. That is the most concerning thing by far. The new big metric bat speed has Elly in the 89th percentile, but we already knew he would be up there. The problem is clear. He whiffs over 30% of the time. Doesn’t matter how fast your bat moves if you can’t make contact. He needs to slow the at-bat down and wait on the ball – he’s striking out on offspeed stuff more than anything else.

    Chicago Cubs RHP Javier Assad

    Chicago Cubs RHP Javier Assad.

    Assad was rocked for 4 runs last time out and lost to the Cardinals. On the year, he’s been very solid – 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA. Advanced stats don’t stand out – everything is around league average except his Pitching Run Value. He gets it done in every way. He does issue a lot of walks and doesn’t really have swing and miss stuff. The Reds should get some pitches to hit, but he excels at inducing weak contact.

    Chicago Cubs Lineup Card

    BattersAverage
    1DH Mike Tauchman.263
    2RF Seiya Suzuki.258
    31B Cody Bellinger.267
    43B Christopher Morel.198
    5LF Ian Happ.221
    62B Nico Hoerner.257
    7SS Dansby Swanson.205
    8CF Pete Crow-Armstrong.228
    9C Yan Gomes.158

    Honestly, the Cubs lineup has not been too much better than the Reds. That is not a surprise when you see that the Cubs expected wins on the season is the same as Cincinnati’s. The names to watch out for are Bellinger and Reds-killer Ian Happ. Bellinger is on fire – .355 in his last 7 games. Happ always seems to come through against Cincinnati. Morel has been ice cold and underperforming on the year. Let’s hope he doesn’t wake up against the Reds.

    Connor Phillips has regressed exponentially

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    Connor Phillips Cincinnati Reds

    Connor Phillips, a name you’ve heard of by now, has been absolutely abysmal in AAA Louisville this year. There’s nothing positive to say about it other than, well, he’s still throwing hard. And in that same sentence, I could detail why that’s a bad thing…he’s not hurt. But he’s been this bad. Let’s get into it.

    Velocity isn’t a lifeline.

    You can throw 100 MPH like Connor Phillips can, but the beauty of baseball is that it doesn’t always matter, no matter how much MLB markets that it does. See, the beauty of baseball is that a batter has a benefit of the doubt, too. Balls & strikes. If that 100 MPH (Now is a good time to remind you it’s not a repeated 100, his fastball sits in the mid to upper 90s) is being thrown for a ball, and the batter gets 4 of them before he gets 3 strikes, he takes his base. For free. Call it the EBT of baseball, except this isn’t electronic, but he’s still eatin’ for free. I know you already know this, I’m being a sarcastic asshole to cope with the fact that one of my favorite pitching prospects we possess has been absolute ass, people. Long story short, Connor Phillips is back to being unable to throw a damn strike.

    The struggles are back.

    Any scout you’ve seen speak about Connor Phillips will tell you that his biggest downfall will always be lack of command. Him being back to the “old Connor” really is a surprise to no one that’s followed Phillips around. He came out of college with 40 grade command, he hasn’t been any better than that. His 2023 season was decent, but all in all, the inability to throw consistent strikes for him is real. Has he become another example of “prospect hugging?” – It’s known that last year many teams were asking about Connor Phillips availability, some of which, Nick Krall & the Cincinnati Reds front office consistently struck them down. Let’s hope that wasn’t a mistake…


    Phillips has done nothing but regress thus far this year after making his MLB debut last year and pitching in some big time games down the stretch. I’ve noted he isn’t injured, and that’s where my worry lays… so far, this year:

    Connor Phillips by the Month

    Guys, it’s as bad as it reads. For fun, if you want to call it that, look below for a graph from April 20th’s start against the Iowa Cubs, and last night’s start against the Iowa Cubs. He has no idea where the ball is going. Repeated delivery consistency is there, and that’s what’s alarming to me. His release points remain the same, but the pitches are going, for the most part, nowhere near the strikezone. Folks, just using last night’s data, he only threw 34 pitches of the 89 total in the strikezone. 55 pitches were out of the strikezone. He only generated 29 swings on 89 total pitches. That’s disgusting. You can sniff all that data of last night’s start here

    Connor Phillips Pitch Landzone 4/20/24
    Connor Phillips Pitch Landzone 5/29/24

    What’s next for Phillips?

    I’d really like to see the Cincinnati Reds front office step in here and put him on the injured list before he completely loses his confidence. Let him throw side session BP until he can regularly throw strikes, then let him get back to it as it warms up some more. He is a super mental dude, you could see it last year where he BLAMED HIMSELF for the Cincinnati Reds not making the postseason. Connor, you made 5 starts in an emegency situation, not your fault my guy. He’s only 23 years old, no arm injuries, nothing to worry about just yet. Just need to keep finetuning the delivery and figure out the armslot that is going to have him throwing more strikes.

    If he’s unable to throw consistent strikes throughout the rest of this year, it’s time to start converting him into a reliever, which is a big L, but a necessary one. Get that velocity back to the 100s, tune the secondaries. There is a LOT of Lucas Sims in his game, there’s seriously no better comparison. Arm slot, arsenal, size, everything is there. It will suck seeing him not start, but that is genuinely the last ditch effort to save an important arm and turn him into a valuable asset.

    Connor Phillips is extremely easy to root for, and I will always do just that. Keep working, Connor, we need ya.

    TJ Friedl Activated again, Mike Ford DFA’d

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    Man, I wish my name was Mike Ford, no really. Keep reading to find out why. TJ Friedl reactivated for the Reds and DH/1B Mike Ford was designated for assignment. It wasn’t even a month ago that we were hype that TJ Friedl was back.


    TJ Friedl was hit by pitch not even a full calendar month ago (May 12th) and was diagnosed with a broken left thumb. Thumbs are important in baseball. Thumbs are important always. I bet dogs wish they had thumbs. TJ already back again this early worries me a little bit – I would’ve liked to see him at least get a few swings in on the farm before coming back and joining us in Chicago against the Cubs, but he’s back now. No complaints. I just know he’s going to be behind.

    Ford made HOW much in 3 weeks?

    On May 4th the Cincinnati Reds honored Mike Ford’s request of releasal because his opt-out date was May 1st. He was shitting on AAA pitching, as most with major league background do, and he wanted some money. Well, fast forward 4 days later, about to board a plane to meet up with his dad, where Mike Ford gets a call from Nick Krall and Brad Meador with a MAJOR League contract offer, with anticipation of Christian Encarnacion-Strand landing on the IL and boy, what an opportunity, right? Going from fishing with your old man to making a milly. In one month.

    That’s right, Mike Ford made $1,300,000 in less than one month from the Cincinnati Reds. He had 60 ABs, mainly from the 3 and 4 hole, and slashed .150/.177/.233/.411 with 1 homer and 9 total hits. He made $1.3M to be worth -0.6 bWAR. The man won the damn lottery. Fleeced Bob the FruitMan. Respect, Mike.

    We do want to add, however, that details of the contract are not entirely known. We know the amounts guaranteed, but there could be verbiage that details IF Mike Ford clears waivers, he must report to AAA Louisville. With this said, there’s chance he’ll remain with the Reds organization, just off the 40 man roster and playing in AAA.

    Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals – May 28, 2024

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    Cincinnati Reds

    St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds – May 28, 2024 – 5 in a row sounds good, doesn’t it? The Cincinnati Reds are hot, but I don’t need to tell you that. 19 runs in the last 4 games. The pitching? 3 straight games with only one run allowed. Tonight’s matchup is favorable too – the Cardinals don’t hit LHP well. Let’s take a look at what to expect tonight against the Cardinals.

    Cincinnati Reds LHP Andrew Abbott

    Cincinnati Reds LHP Andrew Abbott.
    Cincinnati Reds LHP Andrew Abbott.

    Abbott hold the lowest ERA (2.68) among Reds starters and actually has the second lowest among all pitchers (second only to Buck Farmer – 2.19). He’s also give up the most HRs on the staff with 9 on the year. Take a look at his advanced statistics and you’ll be very encouraged. Very encouraged. Overall Pitching Run Value of +7 (88th percentile), Hard Hit % of 31.2 (89th percentile), and xBA of .208 (85th percentile).

    He may not do one specific thing significantly better than everyone else, but he puts it all together – to the tune of 2.2 WAR on the season so far. Abbott has only given up 5 runs over his last 4 starts. What’s interesting is that of the 17 runs he’s given up, 11 have come off HRs. In fact, opponent’s average with RISP is only .162. When he keeps the ball in play, he’s been one of the best starters in the bigs.

    Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

    BattersAverage
    1LF Jacob Hurtubise.250
    2SS Elly De La Cruz.245
    33B Jeimer Candelario.222
    41B Spencer Steer.231
    5RF Jake Fraley.281
    6C Tyler Stephenson.250
    7DH Nick Martini.186
    82B Jonathan India.223
    9CF Will Benson.194

    I’ll admit that the jury is still out on Hurtubise, but I was probably too harsh on him when Bell started making him the leadoff guy. He’s done admirably for someone who probably should not have been expected to be in the bigs before September, much less be starting and at the leadoff. Candelario might be back – that is to what the Cincinnati Reds were expecting when they signed him. Steer is .286 in his last 7 with 2 HRs and 5 RBIs. Martini is at least providing competitive at bats even if his average leaves a lot to be desired. Don’t sleep on India either – .260 over his last 30 – he’s getting a lot more consistent.

    It’s beautiful that I have not worried about seeing the name Mike Ford on the lineup card in a while. Yes, that deserved its own paragraph.

    St. Louis Cardinals RHP Kyle Gibson

    St. Louis Cardinals RHP Kyle Gibson.

    Gibson’s last outing was pretty good. No runs given up, but he only made it 4 innings. A glance at Gibson’s advanced statistics and you’ll see that he lives and dies by his offspeed stuff. He gets alot of ground balls and an average Whiff % of 24.7% but that’s about it. His xERA is 5.54 compared to his actual ERA of 3.81 and his xBA is .278 compared to his BAA of .240 – translation: batted balls are going right at guys, lots of runners getting thrown out, and he’s getting lucky. If the Reds bring the same bats they’ve been swinging, I’m projecting 2-3 runs on Gibson before they chase him out.

    St. Louis Cardinals Lineup Card

    BattersAverage
    1SS Masyn Winn.300
    2RF Lars Nootbar.227
    31B Paul Goldschmidt.222
    4C Ivan Herrera.261
    53B Nolan Arenado.258
    6DH Alec Burleson.308
    7CF Dylan Carlson.125
    82B Nolan Gorman.213
    9LF Brendan Donovan.228

    Winn and Nootbar are both on a tear (.365 and .308 in their last 15 respectively). Goldschmidt hit his 7th homer of the year off Lodolo last night and hits LHP significantly better than RHP. Herrera is back behind the plate after a night at DH and Siani gets a day off with Carlson in CF and Burleson at DH.

    Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds – May 24, 2024

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    Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers

    Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds – May 24, 2024 – Another series done, another series lost. Rinse and repeat. The Dodgers are in town after the Reds visited Los Angeles last week. Honestly, I am looking past this series. After this series, the Reds have series against the Cardinals and Rockies in the next couple of weeks (with the Cubs in between). Those two series are winnable, and are truly the last chance to spark a turnaround. A couple of weeks after that, the Cincinnati Reds have two series against Pittsburgh and another series against Saint Louis. Let’s see how they matchup in today’s matchup even though it seems hopeless.

    Cincinnati Reds RHP Graham Ashcraft

    Cincinnati Reds RHP Graham Ashcraft.
    Cincinnati Reds RHP Graham Ashcraft.

    Starting pitching has not really been the issue this year. Ashcraft has given up 3 runs in his last 3 starts. The two starts before that stretch, he gave up 1 run to Texas and 0 in 6 IP to San Diego. The big thing for Ashcraft this season can be seen in his batted ball profile. He’s getting groundballs on 51% of balls put in play, but his weak contact percent is only 0.6% – by far the worst of his career. His ERA is the best of his career so far. Just a weird statline for Ashcraft this season.

    Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

    BattersAverage
    1CF Stuart Fairchild.222
    2SS Elly De La Cruz.254
    31B Jeimer Candelario.224
    4LF Spencer Steer.226
    5C Tyler Stephenson.263
    63B Santiago Espinal.194
    7DH Nick Martini.184
    82B Jonathan India.208
    9RF Jacob Hurtubise.214

    Stu exactly where he should be against LHP. Expect him to be yanked for Benson if a RHP comes in. I see that David Bell remembered that Tyler Stephenson exists after a brief moment of dementia in last night’s 9th inning. Nick Martini in the DH spot isn’t ideal, but I will take it over Mike Ford seven days a week. Martini actually has better splits against LHP.

    Los Angeles Dodgers LHP James Paxton

    Los Angeles Dodgers LHP James Paxton.

    Paxton’s last time out he gave up 3 runs over 6 IP against your Cincinnati Reds. As noted in that game’s preview, Paxton’s advanced statistics are abysmal. The only thing he is not below average in is extension off the mound. Yet his pitching run values are positive. Simply put, guys are just hitting his stuff right at defenders. He’s getting hit hard, he’s not striking people out, he’s walking a ton of batters, and then he finds a way to get out of it consistently. The Reds will have to take advantage of the guys they get on base. At least we won’t have to worry about automatic out Mike Ford squandering runners on base tonight (hopefully).

    Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup Card

    BattersAverage
    1TBA
    2
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    7
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    9

    San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds, May 23, 2024

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    Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres

    San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds, May 23, 2024 – Tough loss last night. The kind that makes you turn off the TV in the 5th inning. Nick Martinez is not it. At least not as a starter. The guy apparently does not have a starter mentality. Just tell yourself we can still win this series and breathe. For more info, check out our series preview here. Let’s see how the game matches up today.

    Cincinnati Reds RHP Frankie Montas

    Cincinnati Reds RHP Frankie Montas
    Cincinnati Reds RHP Frankie Montas.

    Montas’ last two outings have not been great. Last time out against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Montas allowed 3 runs on 5 IP. Not absolutely terrible, but the time before against the San Fransisco Giants, he allowed 4 runs on 4 2/3 IP. When the offense is playing like the Reds offense is, that won’t win you games. As we have documented, his velocity is up recently by about 3 MPH on every pitch and he is getting more movement. He’s just throwing less strikes. Less strikes, and issuing more free passes. Montas will need to attack the strike zone and trust the stuff that got him through 6 IP with no runs on Opening Day.

    Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

    BattersAverage
    1LF Jacob Hurtubise.154
    2SS Elly De La Cruz.256
    33B Jeimer Candelario.223
    4DH Mike Ford.157
    51B Spencer Steer.224
    6RF Nick Martini.169
    72B Jonathan India.212
    8C Luke Maile.158
    9CF Will Benson.191

    This lineup is the reason the season is going nowhere. Mike Ford batting cleanup. Luke Maile starting over Tyler Stephenson when Hunter Greene is not on the mound. Guys like Nick Martini starting because Jake Fraley and TJ Friedl are injured. Bad news. At least Jeimer Candelario is heating up. He hit a HR last night and went 2 for 4. Over his last 15 games, he is batting .281 with an OBP of .317. Very encouraging considering his abysmal start to the season. Not saying he was worth the money yet, but good enough to bat 3rd in this lineup.

    I’m still trying to understand the choice to bat Hurtubise in the leadoff spot. Jonathan India has an OBP of .305 in the last 15 games – second best on the team. That is not world beating by any means, but he has always tended to do better in the leadoff spot. Here’s hoping Hurtubise can get the guys going.

    San Diego Padres RHP Matt Waldron

    San Diego Padres RHP Matt Waldron.

    The last couple of times out have been better for Waldron. He allowed 1 run on 5 2/3 IP against the Atlanta Braves last week. Waldron issues league average walks and get a league average amount of strikeouts. However, he rarely gets whiffs or chases. His Pitching Run Value is pretty below average – the 22nd percentile. Basically, there’s nothing special about his numbers except that fact that he rarely gets hit hard. Man I would love to see Elly smack a HR on this guy.

    San Diego Padres Lineup Card

    BattersAverage
    11B Luis Arraez.330
    2DH Fernando Tatis Jr..248
    3LF Jurickson Profar.339
    42B Jake Cronenworth.269
    53B Manny Machado.231
    6RF David Peralta.000
    7CF Jackson Merrill.283
    8SS Ha-Seong Kim.214
    9C Kyle Higashioka.150

    Luis Campusano gets a day off. David Peralta will take his 3rd AB of the season as the Padres send him out again. Top-heavy lineup with a rookie phenom at the bottom. I would like to say it’s a good chance to win a series, but we all know why I won’t. Let’s just see what happens I guess.

    Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres – May 22nd, 2024

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    Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres

    San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds – May 22, 2024 – First thing’s first, if you haven’t yet, go check out our series preview here. A big win last night over the San Diego Padres to start the series off. It’s exactly how you would want your favorite baseball team to open every series, with a W. A cheeky little 3 hit, 2 run night that resulted in a shutout win. We still can’t hit. But maybe…just maybe they’ll start to win those games that they can’t hit in.

    Houston, we have a little problem – Another hit by pitch of one of our players sent them out of the game – this time, it’s Jake Fraley. Rake was hit on the wrist last night and immediately left the game. David Bell threw a tantrum, as he should’ve, out of sheer frustration of losing another one of his players. It’s been frustrating. The initial x-ray of Jake Fraley came back negative, but you have to take it with a grain of salt, TJ Friedl’s initial x-ray also came back negative & then an MRI revealed a fracture. Let’s hope for the best. My goodness, it’s been a fuckin’ brutal year, boys & girls.

    Cincinnati Reds RHP Nick Martinez

    RHP Nick Martinez – Cincinnati Reds

    Nick Martinez is back in the “opener” role until fellow Nick, Nick Lodolo, can be back and healthy in the rotation. Nick Martinez has been beat around as a starter, there’s nothing more to say. It’s night and day difference – as a starter, he’s pitching to the tune of a 6.86 ERA with 31 hits given up with a 1.619 WHIP. As a reliever? Night and day difference. 1.04 ERA in 17.1 IP, 0.692 WHIP and only 10 hits given up. I would’ve rather seen David Bell start Brent Suter especially after seeing the success that Andrew Abbott had yesterday. I gotta be brutally honest as you know I always am, folks… I’m fading Nick Martinez tonight. Especially against his former team. The Padres have been a little cold offensively of late, but Martinez is going to be in consistent trouble with Cronenworth, Merrill, and Arraez, and 2 of those guys have a great chance to be on for Manny Machado on another warm, muggy day in Cincinnati. I don’t like this matchup.

    Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card 5/22/24

    BattersAverage | OPS
    1LF Jacob Hurtubise.182 | .490
    2SS Elly De La Cruz.262 | .838
    33B Jeimer Candelario.216 | .663
    4C Tyler Stephenson.263 | .797
    5DH Mike Ford.146 | .413
    61B Spencer Steer.224 | .710
    7RF Nick Martini.177 | .529
    82B Jonathan India.216 | .619
    9CF Will Benson.195 | .681
    Cincinnati Reds 5/22/24 Lineup

    The first thing I think when I see this lineup is…whew. Whew. WHEW. It’s almost inpalpable seeing how bad a lot of these guys have been this year. Not a single dude other than Elly de La Cruz with an OPS above .800. That has to be a record for the Cincinnati Reds since they’ve played at Great American to only have ONE guy with an OPS above .800. Spencer Steer struggling as bad as he has lately has hurt. Tyler needs to keep on keeping on. This offense has to get going.

    San Diego Padres RHP Michael King

    San Diego Padres RHP Michael King

    Have you ever heard of Juan Soto? It’s a sure thing Michael King has. He was apart of the New York Yankees package that sent Juan Soto from San Diego to New York. Michael King has 5 pitches he throws, primarily his four seam fastball, sinker & changeup, but he will also throw his sweeper. His fastball gets beat around pretty bad, so I would fully expect him to throw predominantly offspeed tonight. His sinker is his best pitch by far. The Reds have really struggled with starters that have the repertoire that King has, I fully expect him to go well over his K totals for the day, if you’re a betting man. With no Jake Fraley likely, & Spencer Steer still nursing his ankle he hurt back in Arizona, I’m looking for some contact guys like Santiago Espinal to have a big day. This is a really good matchup for Will Benson, too. This is a guy Tyler Stephenson traditionally beats up, too. Let’s hope Spencer Steer is a full go today, this is a great guy for him to get back on track with. Sidenote: Michael King has given up the most homeruns in Major League Baseball so far.

    Michael King’s pitch types

    San Diego Padres Lineup Card

    TBABattersAverage | OPS
    12B Luis Arraez .318 | .746
    2RF Fernando Tatis Jr .249 | .751
    3DH Jurickson Profar.339 | .942
    41B Jake Cronenworth.269 | .805
    53B Manny Machado.225 | .623
    6LF David Peralta— | — Debut
    7CF Jackson Merrill.284 | .710
    8C Campusano.259 | .759
    9SS Tyler Wade .246 | .608
    San Diego Padres 5/22/24 Lineup

    Padres posted their lineup at 4pm today. Very left handed heavy in anticipation of facing Nick Martinez at least 3-4 innings.

    San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds – May 21, 2024

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    Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres

    San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds – May 21, 2024 – The Reds are back home to face off against the San Diego Padres. First thing’s first, if you haven’t yet, go check out our series preview here. OF Nick Martini is back in the bigs. OF Conner Capel was sent down to make room after receiving essential zero opportunity to prove himself. Gotta love that. Martini is simply a AAAA player. Martini went 8 for 22 in two weeks with AAA Louisville after starting the season in Cincinnati with a .177 average. Let’s see how everything matches up for today’s series opener.

    Cincinnati Reds LHP Andrew Abbott

    Cincinnati Reds
    Cincinnati Reds LHP Andrew Abbott.

    Abbott spun a gem last time out going 7.0 IP with just 1 run on 4 hits and 2 walks. The bats couldn’t back him up though and Fernando Cruz gave up a run to lose it in the 8th. Abbott just kept doing what he had been doing – generating weak contact and going right at batters. He gave up a solo shot to Christian Walker in the 2nd, but ultimately went 7 innings with only 4 strikeouts by inducing 10 groundouts (one DP) and 5 weak pop ups. All of that to say, Abbott generally is not getting hit hard this season. Occasionally, he struggles with giving up the long ball. However, most of the times teams have had success against him, they’ve had to chain together singles and little bloopers. Unfortunately, singles and little bloopers is what half of this San Diego lineup does. Strength on strength tonight.

    Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

    BattersAverage
    1LF Jacob Hurtubise.250
    2SS Elly De La Cruz.256
    31B Jeimer Candelario.220
    4RF Jake Fraley.272
    5C Tyler Stephenson.273
    6DH Mike Ford.156
    72B Jonathan India.219
    83B Santiago Espinal.200
    9CF Will Benson.191

    Don’t even get me started on Mike Ford. Guess Martini couldn’t get to Cincinnati in time or something. Leading off rookie Hurtubise is….. a choice. I want the guy to succeed as much as the next guy, but that’s odd. Most important though – no Spencer Steer. Bell said to expect him at 100% today and he’s not in the lineup. Maybe time to get a bit worried?

    San Diego Padres RHP Joe Musgrove

    San Diego Padres RHP Joe Musgrove.

    Joe Musgrove returns from the 15-day IL today after fighting through tricep tendonitis. Musgrove has given up 3+ runs in 6 of his 8 starts. He hands them out. Advanced statistics on this guy are a joke. Hold on though, the last time I said that, the Reds got shut down. Honestly though – his xBA is .304 (6th percentile). He gives up a .318 average to left-handed batters. He’s also given up the 2nd most HRs in the NL even after a two week break. The Cincinnati Reds SHOULD have no problem hitting him tonight.

    San Diego Padres Lineup Card

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