San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds – Series Preview

By

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21 May 2024

Your Cincinnati Reds come into this series 19-28 to face the 25-25 San Diego Padres. There are 113 games left to be played. Elly has a lot of bases to steal. Steer has a lot of HRs to hit. Marte will be back in 30 games. Breathe.

As for this series, the pitching matchups should be favorable for the Reds. We’ll see Joe Musgrove (3-3 with a 6.37 ERA), Michael King (3-4 with a 4.31 ERA), and sophomore Matt Waldron (2-5 with a 5.00 ERA). The best part – they are all righties. Cincinnati has confirmed Andrew Abbott on Tuesday. We should see an opener or Nick Martinez on Wednesday, and Frankie Montas on Thursday.

Cincinnati Reds Notebook

43 games done. Forget what you know about Cincinnati’s lineup. Across the board (except Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson, and Jake Fraley), the bats are about as bad as they can get. It can only get better… right? Two weeks ago, SIX guys with a sub .200 average played. Yesterday’s lineup had three. Two of those guys shouldn’t be in the lineup anyway. Point is, moving forward the competition lightens up (outside of the Dodgers one more time) and most of our guys are already trending in the right direction finally.

The starting pitching has been the best in recent memory. The starters (including Nick Martinez) have an ERA of 3.69. That’s the best the Reds have pitched to this point in the season since 2014 – the bats were dead that year too. Don’t worry about the pitching. The problem is, they can’t win 1-run games going a well-documented 1-11 so far. When they need to hit, they don’t. Not to mention that Mike Ford being your three-hole hitter every day is as unserious as it gets. I took a break after writing that last sentence.

LHP Brandon Williamson made a rehab start for Louisville yesterday, giving up 5 hits and surrendering one run in 3 2/3 innings of work. For those of you worrying about Spencer Steer, he should be fine. Bell yanked him back for Hurtubise yesterday due to a sore ankle evidently and should be 100% on Tuesday. Emilio Pagan should not need time on the IL after leaving the game due to forearm tightness, but we’ve been told that before. LHP Nick Lodolo should be back to open the series against Saint Louis on May 27th. Lastly, OF Nick Martini was recalled while OF Conner Capel was sent back down after being given pretty much zero opportunity.

My Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

This has become a mental exercise. The lineup is the reason I am personally done with David Bell. Argue all you want that he has the roster he was given, injuries, he can’t bat for them, etc. End of the day, his lineups are terrible, and the last straw is the fact that Mike Ford has been absolutely non-competitive, but Bell sticks with him in the 3-hole. It’s unbelievably frustration and as unserious it gets in pro sports. Ford should not touch the lineup, much less the top half. He’s batting .143 against RHP and it’s not just the average (other guys in this lineup have bad averages), it’s that AB after AB, he is non-competitive. I hate to go in on our own guy, but Ford has 1 BB in 46 PAs, has a Batting Run Value of NEGATIVE 5, and is below average in every single advanced metric except Whiff % (which hardly matters when all the contact you make is weak grounders and pop-ups). All that in mind, this is what I would do all series:

	Batters	Average vs RHP
1	CF Will Benson	.225
2	SS Elly De La Cruz	.257
3	RF Jake Fraley	.268
4	C Tyler Stephenson	.274
5	LF Spencer Steer	.252
6	1B Jeimer Candelario	.188
7	2B Jonathan India	.208
8	3B Santiago Espinal	.172
9	DH Nick Martini	.161

I’ll get bold – I’d rather see Stu face RHP than Mike Ford. But I’m guessing that is what Martini was brought up for. Candelario is improving and the .188 average is not indicative of what we should expect. Stephenson needs to be in the lineup everyday unless Greene absolutely has to have Maile for some reason. Stephenson has become a brand new player and for right now, he’s the best batter on this roster – both ways.

San Diego Padres Notebook

The Padres come into this series 5-5 in their last 10. They got the better of the Cincinnati Reds in April, taking two from that three game set. San Diego scores a lot of runs – the fifth most in the bigs. They also give up a lot of runs – the tenth most. All three guys the Reds are set to face hand out runs. Musgrove has given up 3+ runs in 6 of his 8 starts, King in 5 of his 9, and Waldron in 4 of his 9. Only 4 of their combined 27 starts have gone without a run given up.

The Padres lineup is solid. All their everyday guys are over .200 – the Reds can’t say that. Luis Arraez arrived via trade on May 4th and has continued his incredible tear – the dude gets on base. Jurickson Profar is having a career year. Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, and Luis Campusano have all been above average as well.

Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers – May 17th, 2024

By

Mike V

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17 May 2024

0

Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers – May 17th, 2024 – A glimmer of hope? A spark? Whatever you take away from it, last night’s win was incredible. The bullpen did their job and picked up for the rotation for a missed start by Lodolo. Elly did Elly things – 4 for 4 with 3 runs scored, a walk, and 4 steals. In fact, everyone except Steer and Fraley got on base. Tyler Stephenson had two RBI hits. Jeimer Candelario and Stuart Fairchild both came through with nice RBI XBHs. Just a complete domination of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Let’s break down how the Cincinnati Reds can repeat last night’s success.

Cincinnati Reds RHP Frankie Montas

No two ways about it – Montas’ last time out was a step in the wrong direction. He gave up 5 runs (4 earned) on 4.2 IP after a solid start out the time before. Montas’ velocity and movement have both picked up since his stint on the IL for a forearm contusion. Montas’ advanced statistics show a very middle of the road starter, but it is encouraging to see that his K % and his First Pitch Strike % are up tremendously. Look for him to not be shy and go after this Dodgers lineup. After all, what else can you do when they can all hit?

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	2B Jonathan India	.228
2	SS Elly De La Cruz	.277
3	LF Spencer Steer	.234
4	C Tyler Stephenson	.255
5	1B Jeimer Candelario	.230
6	DH Mike Ford	.182
7	CF Stuart Fairchild	.205
8	3B Santiago Espinal	.194
9	RF Will Benson	.196

Writing out the lineup card feels so much better after a night with as much production as last night’s win. Candelario and Stephenson are on a tear lately. Elly went 4 for 4 and now we get to see him bat from the right handed batters box again. I personally feel he looks better every time we see him face a lefty. LHP mashing Stuart Fairchild is one to watch tonight. He’s been heating up of late as well and is always a wonder in CF too. Mike Ford really is your everyday DH folks.

Los Angeles Dodgers LHP James Paxton

The Dodgers acquired 35 year old Paxton via free agency this past offseason. An 11-year veteran, Paxton has put together a very solid career with a lifetime 3.64 ERA over 163 starts. His ERA is even better this year – 2.58 in 7 starts. Paxton has been steady, and has yet to really be knocked around. Interestingly though, he gives up a better average to lefties (.259 vs .213 against righties). Even more interestingly, his advanced statistics this season are TERRIBLE. He is literally below average in every single statistic except Extension off the mound – and honestly that doesn’t matter. He is in the SIXTH percentile for both K % and BB % (13.7% and 14.9% respectively).

Walking more batters than you strikeout isn’t usually a recipe for success. If you took Paxton and put him on a team that did not hit as well as Los Angeles, he’d probably have 2-3 losses by now. His fastball and curveball both have positive run value and are a mean 1-2 punch though. His Batting Average Against in the first two innings is over .200 but then plummets until the fifth inning – he shuts you down if you don’t get to him early.

Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	SS Mookie Betts	.343
2	DH Shohei Ohtani	.360
3	1B Freddie Freeman	.292
4	C Will Smith	.315
5	LF Teoscar Hernandez	.243
6	2B Gavin Lux	.196
7	CF Andy Pages	.267
8	RF Jason Heyward	.214
9	3B Enrique Hernandez	.212

The Dodgers are taking the Reds a little more seriously tonight. Smith and Pages are back in the lineup. It’s not easy to hold baseball’s best lineup to 2 runs. Don’t expect it again. Should be an offensive battle tonight.

Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers – May 16, 2024

By

Mike V

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16 May 2024

0

Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers – May 16, 2024 – Doom and gloom in Reds Country. It’s getting harder and harder to write these without being pessimistic. Just when the Reds need a turnaround, they face a four-game set against perhaps the best team in baseball. Let’s break down the opener against Los Angeles.

Cincinnati Reds LHP Brent Suter

The Cincinnati Reds will trot out reliever Brent Suter in an “opener” role in the first matchup of the series. Not really a true starter, Suter will hope to give the Reds a level playing field early. Then, we should expect Nick Martinez to come out of the bullpen and eat up as many innings as he can. Suter is a low velocity, weak contact pitcher. He ranks in the 88th percentile with an Average Exit Velocity of 86.1 MPH, the 89th percentile with a Hard-Hit % of 30.3, and the 74th percentile with a BB % of 6.5. Suter hits the strike zone and pitches for contact. Cool for the hometown guy to get a start even though the circumstances are grim.

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	CF Will Benson	.194
2	SS Elly De La Cruz	.258
3	DH Mike Ford	.179
4	1B Spencer Steer	.242
5	C Tyler Stephenson	.245
6	RF Jake Fraley	.300
7	3B Jeimer Candelario	.230
8	2B Santiago Espinal	.200
9	LF Conner Capel	.167

An off day for Jonathan India if you want to call it that. I would rather see him in the lineup than Espinal, but Espinal did homer last night. Elly De La Cruz is back after a one game hiatus from the starting lineup. I even read a whole article on MLB.com about how the Reds hope it will energize him for the rest of the season. We’ll see.

Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Tyler Glasnow

The Dodgers acquired Glasnow via trade in December of last year. It’s sure looking like they won that one. Glasnow owns a 6-1 record with a 2.53 ERA on the season in 9 starts. Lefties are only hitting .160 against him in that time. Look at his statcast advanced metrics and you’ll probably not want to watch this game. 99th percentile in Pitching Run Value and Fastball Run value. 85th percentile or better in Breaking Run Value, xBA, Fastball Velo, and K %(33.6%!). Glasnow dominates. He was hit around only once so far against the Nationals a month ago giving up 6 earned runs over 5 IP. Last time out, he gave up one run on a HR in 7 IP against the Padres.

Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	SS Mookie Betts	.348
2	DH Shohei Ohtani	.364
3	1B Freddie Freeman	.297
4	RF Teoscar Hernandez	.243
5	3B Enrique Hernandez	.220
6	2B Gavin Lux	.194
7	LF Chris Taylor	.071
8	CF James Outman	.151
9	C Austin Barnes	.219

The Dodgers sure set the lineup like they expect an easy win. Lots of rotation. Max Muncy, Andy Pages, and Will Smith all get the day off. Very top heavy. Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman can do as much damage as most lineups put together. All I can say is – just sit back and enjoy some stellar baseball from these guys.

Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks – May 15th, 2024

By

Mike V

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15 May 2024

0

Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks – May 15th, 2024 – Last night the Reds did what good teams do – they broke the game wide open. Greene was exceptional – 7 IP with only 2 ER on 5 hits and 1 walk. Greene had command and pitched very efficiently. On the offensive side, five guys had RBIs. The best offenses are ones where everyone is involved in produces. The craziest thing about last night – they did it all without production from Elly De La Cruz or Spencer Steer. Let’s break down the rubber match.

Cincinnati Reds LHP Andrew Abbott

Abbott was solid last time out picking up a win against San Francisco on 5 IP with 6 hits and 1 walk. Abbott’s advanced metrics continue to tell the same story – he is inducing weak contact most of the time and his sweeper and changeup are nasty. Abbott has a +2 Run Value on his sweeper with a .225 Batting Average Against (BAA). His changeup has a +1 Run Value with a .154 BAA. Let’s not talk about the curveball. His Whiff % is down 6.9 % – a bit alarming. That would be incredibly concerning if not for the uptick his In Zone % and First Pitch Strike % – he’s going after batters and trying to induce contact.

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	CF Will Benson	.193
2	RF Jake Fraley	.314
3	1B Mike Ford	.208
4	2B Spencer Steer	.248
5	3B Jeimer Candelario	.229
6	DH Conner Capel	.333
7	SS Santiago Espinal	.196
8	C Luke Maile	.148
9	LF Jacob Hurtubise	.148

UPDATE 3:32 PM – India is scratched with a migraine. Hurtubise comes in to play LF and Steer shifts over to 2B with Ford on 1B. We now know that the delay was due to a new setback for Nick Lodolo – a left groin strain. He was moved to the 15-day IL retro to 05/12 and LHP Sam Moll was recalled from AAA Louisville. Nice to have Moll back in the bullpen, but losing Lodolo for at least 2-3 starts hurts. Have to hope it’s not a major setback. Nick Martinez likely starts in his place in the rotation. LHP Brandon Williamson started a second rehab assignment today with Single-A Dayton. He left his first rehab assignment with left shoulder soreness.

Onto the lineup and we have to address it right away – a day off for Elly De La Cruz. Of course the coaching staff has a better idea of the fitness of each player, but you have to wonder about the decision here when things seem to be trending better offensively. To be fair, the bats got going without him last night. I assume he will be used as a pinch hitter or pinch runner at some point if the game is competitive.

Candy is hot (.385 over his last 7 games), and Fraley is raking RHP (well really raking everything), but the bottom half of this lineup is largely non-competitive. Need a solid game out of a guy that has been slumping. Again, keep an eye out for Elly to come on after the 6th inning in a clutch situation.

Arizona Diamondbacks RHP Brandon Pfaadt

A mediocre young pitcher with potential written all over him. Pfaadt is really only excelling at limiting walks. Everything else looks pretty rough. His sweeper was his weapon last year, providing a Run Value of +8, but hitters are mashing it this year. He’s giving up a .322 average to lefties this year, but righties hit .290 against him in 2023. This guy is hittable, and the bats woke up last night. Look for him to go after the Reds early with his fastball. He has adapted to the poor performance of his sweeper, bringup up his First Pitch Strike % by 10.2%. That’s about the only thing that has been better in 2024 for this guy. Our lefty heavy lineup should feast.

Arizona Diamondbacks Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	2B Ketel Marte	.290
2	RF Randal Grichuk	.271
3	LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	.229
4	1B Christian Walker	.258
5	3B Eugenio Suarez	.224
6	C Gabriel Moreno	.248
7	DH Blaze Alexander	.262
8	CF Jake McCarthy	.291
9	SS Kevin Newman	.272

In very limited sample size, McCarthy is 7 for 13 againt LHP on the year. Newman and Marte mash LHP. Gurriel Jr, Suarez, Walker, and Grichuk all hit better against lefties. This lineup is practically built the opposite of what the Cincinnati Reds do – hit righties. It’s strength on strength today. Abbott will have his work cut out for him. Expect him to go 5-6 innings and give up 2-3 runs to this lineup.

Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks – May 14, 2024

By

Mike V

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14 May 2024

0

Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks – May 14, 2024 – Total heartbreaker last night. Ford smacks a triple to take the lead, we get no insurance runs, and Diaz can’t throw a strike. Not to mention the balls and strikes were incredibly inconsistent. Cincinnati’s lineup has a lot to digest today.

RHP Hunter Greene

Greene comes into this matchup off of a no decision last week in which he gave up 3 runs on 3 hits and 3 walks. He’ll face the same guy – Slade Cecconi. In fact, he’ll face the exact same lineup outside of the SS and 2B. Greene’s advanced metrics show one of baseball’s best fastballers. A truly top shelf pitcher that needs to cut down on walks and induce slightly more weak contact. But then you look at the results from his secondary pitches and you see why he throws the fastball so much. Greene is in the 90th or better percentile in xERA, xBA, Fastball Velo, and Fastball Run Value. He’s in the 75th to 90th percentile in Average Exit Velocity, Whiff %, K %, Barrel %, Hard Hit %, and Pitching Run Value. Keep in mind, 50th percentile is average – he only falls below that in GB %, Breaking Run Value, and Offspeed Run Value. Like I said – a fastballer. I have no issues with Greene – I think he’s a great #2. Let’s have some faith in the guy to give us yet another chance in this ballgame.

Reds Lineups Card

	Batters	Average
1	CF Will Benson	.191
2	SS Elly De La Cruz	.262
3	1B Mike Ford	.211
4	C Tyler Stephenson	.215
5	RF Jake Fraley	.305
6	3B Jeimer Candelario	.220
7	2B Jonathan India	.233
8	DH Conner Capel	.000
9	LF Jacob Hurtubise	.000

A true debut for Hurtubise. Capel will get at least his second AB of the season. Willy leading off? Hopefully it’s just an off day for Steer. This lineup just opens up so many questions.

With Friedl out for the foreseeable future, I would be leading off India every night. He seems to find his best bat on the nights he leads off. Will Benson is in a major slump – only .221 vs RHP which is supposed to be his specialty. India is better at .227 against RHP. Not much, but his splits are not drastic. I know Steer deserves a day off, but this lineup is brutal without him. A young pitcher again may make this lineup playable, but they have not broken through when you would expect them to all season. Look for Greene to keep it close and this one to come down to whether or not Elly De La Cruz can produce.

On another note, a strong case is being made for Cruz to move into the closer role if Diaz blows one or two more. Cruz has been nasty this year outside of one (maybe two) bad outings.

RHP Slade Cecconi

Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks — Arizona Diamondbacks RHP Slade Cecconi.

Not much to add to the last preview where we detailed him. Go check that out here.

Diamondbacks Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	CF Corbin Carroll	.197
2	2B Blaze Alexander	.263
3	DH Joc Pederson	.298
4	1B Caleb Walker	.265
5	LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	.235
6	3B Eugenio Suárez	.224
7	RF Jake McCarthy	.293
8	SS Kevin Newman	.253
9	C Tucker Barnhart	.205

Greene dodged 2B Ketel Marte tonight. Not much else is different besides Barnhart getting the nod behind the plate and Jake McCarthy back in the lineup over Pavin Smith. Hunter has the stuff to dominate this lineup. He’ll have to watch out for Pederson though.

Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks – May 13, 2024

By

Mike V

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13 May 2024

0

Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks May 13, 2024 – We’re all feeling the same way – could it get any worse? I’m really not sure it can. As Nati has been writing, that’s kind of a good thing (?) or at least a reason to hope. The Reds get a rematch of a week ago, hoping to finally turn this around in Arizona.

RHP Graham Ashcraft

Ashcraft gave up 3 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks last time out against these same Diamondbacks. His advanced metrics are all over the place. They tell the story of a guy that is dominating with his breaking stuff and inducing lots of groundballs (over 50% of batted balls in play!) but getting hammered on his fastball (cutter). The batting average against Ashcraft’s slider is just .116, but his cutter is .293 and his sinker is .333. Yikes. Ashcraft will need to add to his 4 quality starts this season for the Reds to get something going tonight.

Reds Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	2B Jonathan India	.225
2	SS Elly De La Cruz	.262
3	LF Spencer Steer	.248
4	C Tyler Stephenson	.213
5	1B Jeimer Candelario	.211
6	DH Mike Ford	.133
7	CF Stuart Fairchild	.192
8	3B Santiago Espinal	.186
9	RF Will Benson	.195

We’ll start with the bad news everyone knows – Friedl is out until late July to early August with a right thumb fracture. The Reds called up Jacob Hurtubise for his first stint with the big league club. Keep an eye out for him if the Diamondbacks bring in a right-handed reliever. India is back in leadoff – where I think he is best. It is refreshing to see De La Cruz stay batting second even with a LHP on the mound. This is what we have folks, so get used to it for now. However, as Nati noted on Twitter, Benson over Fraley here is malpractice.

Just so I can get my two cents in tonight

Playing Will Benson over Jake Fraley against a soft throwing LHP is absolute malpractice. I know Rake is about as clutch as it gets late against RHP, but give the dude all 4-5 ABs

There’s my one lineup complaint
Let’s win a ballgame
— Nati Sports (@Nati_Sports) May 14, 2024

LHP Jordan Montgomery

Montgomery didn’t exactly dominate last time out against the Reds. He gave up 2 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks. Montgomery is pitching for weak contact straight out. He is not a strikeout guy. Again, look for the Reds to put the ball in play.

Diamondbacks Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	CF Corbin Carroll	.201
2	2B Ketel Marte	.293
3	DH Joc Pederson	.292
4	1B Caleb Walker	.265
5	LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	.239
6	3B Eugenio Suarez	.223
7	C Gabriel Moreno	.242
8	RF Pavin Smith	.207
9	SS Kevin Newman	.216

This lineup isn’t exactly hot. Newman is .318 in his last seven games, but only Moreno and Gurriel Jr are also over .250 in that span. Carroll is a cold .190 in his last fifteen games. This is a similar lineup to what they ran out when they swept the Reds last week. Expect a couple of runs or more.

MLB Pipeline Update: Cincinnati Reds Have 4 Top 100 Prospects, still.

By

Nati

-

13 May 2024

0

Every May, typically, MLB Pipeline, which is the most acknowledged Prospect rating system due to its backing by Major League Baseball, will release a list of top 100 prospects for all of baseball. It seems like the Cincinnati Reds always have at least a few top 100 prospects in there. As the subtitle reads, this will be the 4th year in a row that they have more than 4 players in the top 100, even after graduating 5 top 100 prospects LAST YEAR! I wouldn’t read too far into this stuff, it’s just fun write-up.

The MLB Pipeline has a lot of garbage ranked in the top 20, Pete Crow-Armstrong is still ranked 15th overall in the game and has 2 major league stints now showing nothing other than ability to go get a ball in the OF. The Redsox have 2 top 20 prospects, one that is struggling to keep an .700 OPS & one that is glove first. The point here, don’t take it too seriously.

Reds prospects getting added to the top 100

INF Cam Collier

Collier, who was drafted with the Cincinnati Reds first pick in the 2022 draft at 18th overall is now back in the top 100 range, and it’s much deserved. He’s ranked 95th/100. The kid spent a whole lot of time in the offseason working on adding lift to his batted balls and boy has it paid off. He’s been HOT. He has 7 homers already on the year paired with an .804 OPS & he’s one of the youngest in the league, still. He’s been better in A+ than he was in A. I fully expect him to cool off a little bit, however, and we would like to see him start working counts a bit more. He’s swinging a lot, rightfully so, to input all his work he put in over winter into the games.

Cam Collier's Midwest League leading seventh home run this season❗️@Cam_Collier16 ╳ @DragonsBaseball pic.twitter.com/T7um3HfJyI
— Reds On The Rise (@RedsOnTheRise) April 29, 2024

Reds prospects falling out of the top 100

RHP Chase Petty

I gotta be honest folks, I don’t think Chase will last outside of the top 100 very long. I think his problems in AA so far have been a direct reflection of change and trying to add power to his pitches again, and I’m not worried. I still think Nick Krall should’ve got way more out of Sonny Gray than just Chase Petty back, but back to Chase’s 2024… His K% is still where it needs to be, and he isn’t walking guys, he’s almost…throwing too many strikes. He isn’t missing bats. That will happen again. AA is always a big challenge for a lot of guys, usually bats, but some pitchers struggle, too.

RHP Connor Phillips

It’s time to start worrying about Connor Phillips. Not because he fell out of the top 100, but because he’s back to not throwing enough strikes to be taken serious as a starting pitcher. In 7 starts at AAA Louisville, he currently has an 8.28 ERA in 29.1 IP has walked 23 batters, and only struckout 22. He’s sitting with a 1.98 WHIP, and opponents are hitting .310 off of him. That’s almost .80 points better than his 2023 season in AAA… He has really, really, really struggled bad. So bad, that they should go ahead and start the conversation about turning him into a reliever. There’s a whole lot of Lucas Sims in him, we just have to hope he can throw more strikes.

The full list of Cincinnati Reds top prospects in the top 100

25th Overall: RHP Rhett Lowder
30th Overall: INF Noelvi Marte
55th Overall: INF Edwin Arroyo
95th Overall: INF Cam Collier

It’s worth nothing here to close out, the Cincinnati Reds will be adding another top 100 prospect in July with the #2 overall pick. It’s a given that they’ll get either Charlie Condon or Travis Bazzana – both are 65 grade prospects on day 1 before they even take a professional AB, and some evaluators have gone as far as saying top 25 prospects in all of the game. So by July, as long as no one gets traded, the Reds will have 5 top 100 prospects again.

The Reds graduated Andrew Abbott, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Matt McLain, Elly de La Cruz, & Spencer Steer just LAST year, so let that sink in… the farm system is still top 10 in the game (and honestly, I think it’s well underrated, but that’s an article for another time)

The Cincinnati Reds Brutal Start to 2024 – We should’ve seen it coming.

By

Nati

-

13 May 2024

2

Cincinnati Reds Mr. Reds drinking beer MLB Strength of Schedule Reds team needs to be better

Nope, this isn’t a doom & gloom post. It’s actually…the direct opposite. Yes, we’ve been entirely disappointed. Yes, it’s an unfortunate reality that the Cincinnati Reds, for the last 10 years, have started ridiculously slow, particularly under David Bell. Yes, the Reds have lost 13 of their last 16 games. But…it’s May 13th as this is being posted and they’re not even 4 games out of a playoff spot as it stands. I feel very comfortable stating they’ve played their worst baseball, they’ve lost themselves several games just by pressing.

Let me remind you that Nati Sports is a SeatGeek Ambassador and you can earn $20 off your order through the app using code ‘NATISPORTS’ (min $50)

Code “NatiSports” $20 Off min 50

Strength of Schedule

The Cincinnati Reds have played a tough strength of schedule thus far, which is why it was so important that they came out of the gates hot in April – spoiler alert, they didn’t. April wasn’t easy on them, and May for damn sure isn’t easy on them, but we can look at the end of the tunnel here…and it’s why I even need to take my own advice sometimes, you gotta zoom out. That’s such an easy thing to say, but boy oh boy it’s so tough in the moment.

According to Strength of Schedule Guru, the Cincinnati Reds have the third EASIEST schedule remaining in Major League Baseball. And, get this…they have played the third HARDEST schedule so far in MLB. Now, if that’s not good enough, the renowed website Tankathon‘s formula also has the Reds as the 10th easiest remaining schedule. Folks at home, are we finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel after May?

Now, if you actually viewed those, you’d notice something. There’s a little bit of an issue. The Cubs and Brewers both are also in the category of “easiest schedule” remaining. Here’s a good look at it.

A look at the NL Central’s remaining SOS – lowest number details hardest SOS, higher number details easiest SOS (Brewers have easiest, Cardinals have hardest)

So is the division out of play? I think we can say for certain the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers are considerably better than the Reds right now, and I say that as Matt McLain, TJ Friedl, & Noelvi Marte haven’t been able to play, and the offense, in whole, is struggling. Had we not had so many critical injuries on offense early, there’s no doubt in my mind the Reds would win this division. I repeat – it’s early, very early, but it’s SEVERELY unlikely they makeup 7 games in the division, which of 5/13, is what they’re behind. That would be some 30 for 30 type stuff. It’s happened before, but I don’t think, with our 2nd best player from 2023 still out until September/August, that it’s going to happen. Not to mention, TJ Friedl just got hit on the thumb last night and will miss even more time. The 8 game Cincinnati Reds losing streak may have put a dagger in the division, but they’re very much alive.

The Pitching has me optimistic

How the hell could anyone possibly be optimistic about this team lately? No, seriously. How? Well, let me tell you. The Pitching. The Reds’ pitching, mainly starting pitching, has been about as stout as it gets. They are 5th in fWAR as a team, posting 4.8 WAR, trailing only the Nationals, Orioles, Redsox, & Phillies. Hunter Greene & Andrew Abbott are amongst the top 50 in fWAR with a minimum of 45 IP. Hunter Greene, you know, the guy you’d think was having a horrible season if you base your opinions off of Reds Twitter, is 15th overall in all of MLB in fWAR with 1.2. Fernando Cruz is well on his way to a career year, Alexis Diaz has looked like himself when his slider is sliding, but him being the ‘weak link’ is definitely the case right now, Emilio Pagan is finding his rhythm, Nick Martinez has looked well in opportunities he’s been given, and Sam Moll hasn’t allowed a damn run in over 25 innings and will be back soon.

Let’s Zoom out.

Let’s make a list of reasons I’m optimistic to conclude this article, because, truthfully, and maybe I’m an idiot for thinking this way, and if you’ve read my tweets lately you’d of seen me emotionally call the team absolutely dogshit, and probably even more profanities…but hear me out. Let’s zoom out and look at the bigger picture in a better, more levelheaded manner:

The Cincinnati Reds are 1-8 currently in 1 run games. They’ve played 9 already in a month and a half of baseball, with one of the toughest schedules out there. That means they’re hanging with every team they’re playing. Continuing to lose 1 run games? I don’t see it.
The Reds Pyath theorum W/L is currently sitting at 19-21, which, I bet we’d be a lot more ok with being 2 games under .500 right now instead of 17-23, wouldn’t we? That means we’ve been extremely unlucky with things falling in place.
Matt McLain (aka the 2nd best player on the team in limited time in ’23) will likely be back in late August/early September for a last push.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand will be back, likely in a better mindset, and his wrist should be fully healthy by June.
Noelvi Marte will be back from suspension on June 28th* (If there’s a rainout/postponement, this will be pushed back again.) He is currently playing in sim games at the Arizona Complex.
They’ve literally lost 13 of their last 16 games and are still only 3.5 games out of a wildcart spot. Come on.

The “expectations”

No one is worse than me when it comes to expectations. Unless you’re the Cincinnati Reds. I truly believe 90% of our struggles at the plate have been straight up fears of coming up short. You can’t play baseball, ESPECIALLY at the MLB level, scared, or in a bad mindset. That’s why this game is so important to have LEADERS. This game is literally set up to make you fail, in fact, it’s labeled “the game of failure” for a reason. It’s why we accept batting averages of .300 as elite. We have made up stats to cope with the fact that it’s a game of failure. The Reds have to stop pressing. You can see it on their faces, they’re getting disappointed, and the worst part is, they’re starting to press, make stupid routine errors in the field, and are making mistake after mistake on the basepaths being too aggressive. Nothing has been calculated at ALL. Boys, you’re playing another form of chess. RELAX. Start winning baseball games.

Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants – May 12, 2024

By

Mike V

-

12 May 2024

0

Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants – May 12, 2024 – The Reds come into this rubber match after beating the Reds last night. Yep. You read that right – the Reds beat the Reds. The baserunning gaffes last night were unforgivable and cost the Reds the game – or at least being within one run. Also, God bless John Sadak. The broadcasting crew last night was horrendous and I for one cannot wait to hear John’s sweet voice.

RHP Frankie Montas

Montas picked up a loss last time out, but it was not on him. Only giving up one earned run, Montas showed incredible stuff last week. His average velo was up 3+ mph on every pitch. He cruised through the Diamondbacks lineup twice, only allowing 5 baserunners.

Montas’ advanced statistics actually do not look great. He is only well above average on exit velo and hard hit %. Frankie is inducing some weak contact and that has worked well to his advantage. You can be a contact pitcher, but that has not been Montas’ game for most of his career. Look for him to get lots of whiffs if he can pitch like he did last week.

Reds Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	CF TJ Friedl	.182
2	SS Elly De La Cruz	.272
3	LF Spencer Steer	.248
4	2B Jonathan India	.210
5	RF Stuart Fairchild	.194
6	1B Jeimer Candelario	.212
7	DH Mike Ford	.100
8	3B Santiago Espinal	.173
9	C Luke Maile	.137

Not impressed. I am about done with Mike Ford, but he hits lefties better and the Reds do not have a reliable right-handed bat on their bench. Candelario at first and Espinal in the lineup makes me want to hurl, but I guess it’s what we have to do against LHP. Looking forward to Stu mashing.

LHP Kyle Harrison

Another young guy for San Francisco. Only 79 major league innings – 340 in total with the minors. He has fared fairly well so far in 2024, but the long ball has been his issue – conceding 5 so far. His run value is up, but his pitching advanced stats are nothing special. Not a big walk guy, but just below average as a strikeout pitcher. Another “let’s see what we have here” game for Cincinnati.

Giants Lineup Card

	Batters	Average
1	CF Jung Hoo Lee	.262
2	1B Lamonte Wade Jr.	.341
3	3B Matt Chapman	.213
4	DH Patrick Bailey	.280
5	RF Mike Yastrzemski	.221
6	LF Heliot Ramos	.250
7	C Blake Sabol	.375
8	2B Brett Wisely	–
9	SS Casey Schmitt	.000

Lots of young guys in this lineup today. Brett Wisely makes his debut for 2024. Schmitt is still searching for his first hit of 2024. Not a terrifying lineup by any means but watch out for some of these guys that Montas has never faced. Young guys have been Reds killers this year.

FC Cincinnati 2 Columbus Crew 1 – Match Recap & Player Ratings

By

Mike V

-

12 May 2024

0

If you haven’t realized that every matchday is “Lucho Day”, you’re probably not watching the best team in the MLS. Lucho placed the ball on a platter for an assist and followed that up with a technician’s goal two minutes later to win the Ohio Derby. Here’s how it happened.

The first 70 minutes of this match were a defensive clinic by FCC. With 17 clearances, 12 interceptions, and 3 saves by Celentano, FCC wouldn’t be broken.

In the 73rd minute, Lucho worked his way to the touch line and lofted a cross to the back post. 19 year old forward Kevin Kelsy was right in position to open his account with FC Cincinnati as he slotted home a beautiful header.

Two minutes later, Lucho found himself with some space on the left side of the box. A through ball found him and he banged it past the goalkeeper toward the back post.

Most positive moves FCC makes, you’ll find Lucho directly involved. Notching two more goal involvements in today’s match, Lucho begins building on his lead as the clubs’s all-time top goal scorer. Celentano attacked shots aggressively, picking up 3 saves, but not much was asked of him. Despite Arfsten breaking through in the last minute, FCC dominated this match.

FC Cincinnati ultimately scores 2 goals to take the win.

Player Ratings

GK Roman Celentano 8

Not much asked of him, but when he was challenged, he attacked the shot aggressively. Nothing he could do about Arften’s curler at the last gasp. A previous shot deflected into open space for Arfsten leaving Celentano stranded.

DF Miles Robinson 6

Robinson was tasked with defending the right side in front of Celentano this match. He held a high line most of the match, but did leave Diego Rossi wide open for a shot early on. Probably should have had a headed goal from a fantastic cross by Orellano.

DF Matt Miazga 7

The anchor of the defense as usual. Miazga let nothing by him directly but was occasionally caught out of position, opening up lanes for the Columbus Crew that they failed to take advantage of.

DF Ian Murphy 6

Much like Robinson, Murphy held a high line on his side – even forcing an offsides – but pushed too far inside the box on occasion to allow open shots.

MF Alvas Powell NR

Mostly ineffective. Powell didn’t instigate much in this match, allowing the ball to come to him before moving forward. Subbed early as he may have picked up a knock.

MF Pavel Bucha 7

Actually, did not do much except find Lucho for the second goal. The through ball was slotted through with incredible touch and allowed Acosta to operate with space. Fantastic assist.

MF Obinna Nwobodo 6

Very active defensively. Even in the final third, always seemed focused on maintaining possession for FCC.

MF Luca Orellano 8

What an activity rate. Took most of FCC’s crosses. Should have had a goal right after the break if not for a nice save at the near post. Pestered Columbus’s defense enough to take their eye off Acosta.

CAM Luciano Acosta 10 – MAN OF THE MATCH

FC Cincinnati Center Attacking Midfielder Luciano Acosta.

What more can you say? Two goal involvements. Always threatening. Acosta is at the center of every forward movement. Created chances for Kubo and Orellano that unfortunately could not be finished. With his work, probably should have been 4-1.

FW Corey Baird 5

Lost. Ineffective. Sometimes in Acosta’s way. Had one chance, but failed to take it. Subbed off for Kelsy in the 67th minute.

FW Yuya Kubo 7

Much like Orellano – very active. Had a chance in extra time of the first half that really should have been a goal. Acosta set him up with a lane to take the far post and he placed it way too close to the goalkeeper.

Substitutes

MF Gerardo Valenzuela 6

On for Powell in the 13th minute. Valenzuela was not a huge factor, but he performed admirably and opened space for Acosta several time.

FW Kevin Kelsy 9

Fantastic way to open your account with your new club. FCC have the option to purchase him at the end of his loan for $7 million. With a few more goals like that, they just might.

CAM Malik Pinto NR

A last minute substitute to protect Acosta and become more defensive as a unit.

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Cincinnati Reds Notebook

My Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

San Diego Padres Notebook

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup Card

Cincinnati Reds LHP Brent Suter

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Tyler Glasnow

Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup Card

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

Arizona Diamondbacks Lineup Card

Reds Lineups Card

Diamondbacks Lineup Card

Reds Lineup Card

Diamondbacks Lineup Card

Reds prospects getting added to the top 100

INF Cam Collier

Reds prospects falling out of the top 100

RHP Chase Petty

RHP Connor Phillips

The full list of Cincinnati Reds top prospects in the top 100

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Strength of Schedule

The Pitching has me optimistic

Let’s Zoom out.

The “expectations”

Reds Lineup Card

Giants Lineup Card

Player Ratings

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