Major League Baseball’s non-tender deadline arrives this afternoon (Nov. 21, 2025 at 4 p.m. ET), forcing teams to decide whether to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible players or cut them loose into free agency. The Cincinnati Reds have a few decisions to make, Gavin Lux seemingly the largest.
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Acquired from the Dodgers back in January, Lux gave the Reds exactly what his scouting report promised: on-base ability against RHP, limited power, limited defensive value, and not much impact on the bases. The question for Cincinnati now isn’t whether Lux is a useful big leaguer. It’s whether he’s worth his projected price tag in 2026.
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Gavin Lux’s 2025 Season by the Numbers
After arriving in a January trade from Los Angeles to Cincinnati, Lux settled in as a left-handed bat who bounced between second base, left field, and DH.
By the end of the 2025 regular season, his stat line looked like this:
- Games/AB: 446 at-bats
- Slash line: .269 / .350 / .724 OPS
- Counting stats: 49 runs, 120 hits, 5 homers, 53 RBI, 1 steal
- Overall value: roughly 0.3 WAR (FanGraphs) with a 102 wRC+ – basically a tick above league-average production at the plate. Baseball Reference didn’t like him as much – -0.2 bWAR – primarily stemming from his lack of defensive abilities. In short: as a hitter, he was fine. Not a star, not a black hole, but a playable bat in a big-league lineup. That’s…where the issues come into play.
What Lux Brought to the Reds in 2025
There is a positive case for Lux:
- Left-handed OBP piece: A .350 OBP has real value, especially on a Reds team that, at times, has lived and died with boom-or-bust young hitters.
- Positional flexibility (on paper): He’s logged time at 2B, SS, and LF in the majors. Even if the defensive metrics aren’t pretty, and let’s make it clear: it’s less than pretty, the ability to move around the diamond gives the Reds the versatility Krall always preached.
- Age and track record: At 27, Lux is in what should be his physical prime, and he has a relative history of success offensively.
On a contender with a deeper payroll, a slightly-above-average platoon bat who gets on base might be an easy “yes” at arbitration time.
For the Reds, it’s not quite that simple. You guys know the reality of this team.
The Money: Arbitration Cost vs. Actual Value
According to recent national reporting on non-tender candidates, Lux is projected to earn around $5 million through arbitration this winter. CBS Sports
That same report notes three key things about his profile:
- He’s a platoon bat – solid vs. right-handers, but someone you really don’t want facing lefties, like at all. in 56 PAs (limited because it was so bad) he slashed .179/.270/.196/.466 against. Yikes.
- He doesn’t add much defensively or on the bases, which makes his flaws stand out more.
- That projected $5 million salary would account for more than 5% of the Reds’ total payroll, which says as much about Cincinnati’s frugality as it does about the player.
Combine all of that with the production level – 0.3 fWAR, -0.2 bWAR, slightly above league average with the bat – and you get a pretty simple value question:
Are the Reds getting $5 million of impact from Gavin Lux, or could that money be better spent elsewhere?
In a vacuum, $5 million for a role player isn’t outrageous. For a team that has clear needs in the rotation and bullpen, and is walking a tightrope with payroll, every midtier salary hit matters. Every bad trade Nick Krall makes, every dollar he takes on, it matters.
The full Reds Salary Tracker we built can be found here
Roster Fit: Where Does Lux Actually Play?
The roster fit may be the biggest on-field argument against tendering Lux.
- At second base, arguably his ‘best’ defensive position, the Reds still need to sort out a long-term answer among their young core. Lux’s glove hasn’t graded out as a major plus there in recent seasons, and it seemed to be McLain’s position to lose all year, even with his struggles.
- In left field, his lack of power (5 HR in 446 AB) is underwhelming for a corner spot, especially in Great American Ball Park where power hitters are supposed to eat.
- At DH, a contact-and-walks profile without slugging is a tough sell when that spot is often your best chance to stash a true middle-of-the-order bat.
If Lux isn’t trusted at second, isn’t providing enough thump in left, and isn’t an ideal DH, he drifts closer to “nice-to-have depth piece” than “locked-in everyday regular.”
Depth is important. But depth at $5 million on a constrained payroll can be a luxury – but literally.
So what will they do?
I have a genuine belief that the Reds will tender him a contract, but they’ll go to arbitration hearings. Gavin Lux was the definition of mid in 2025, he likely won’t win his case. I think there’s even a chance that he recognizes this himself, and will ultimately settle with the Reds for about $3-3.5M avoiding arbitration. He was not worth near to $5,000,000 in any facet. Another bad, horrendous trade by Nick Krall.
I am hoping they bite the bullet and non-tender him, but the stubbornness and lack of humility Nick Krall has shown for players that he’s acquired over the years says no. The history says no. They will tender him, and they’ll take him to hearings and submit the number above or near it.
