Your Cincinnati Reds come into this series 19-28 to face the 25-25 San Diego Padres. There are 113 games left to be played. Elly has a lot of bases to steal. Steer has a lot of HRs to hit. Marte will be back in 30 games. Breathe.
As for this series, the pitching matchups should be favorable for the Reds. We’ll see Joe Musgrove (3-3 with a 6.37 ERA), Michael King (3-4 with a 4.31 ERA), and sophomore Matt Waldron (2-5 with a 5.00 ERA). The best part – they are all righties. Cincinnati has confirmed Andrew Abbott on Tuesday. We should see an opener or Nick Martinez on Wednesday, and Frankie Montas on Thursday.
Cincinnati Reds Notebook
43 games done. Forget what you know about Cincinnati’s lineup. Across the board (except Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson, and Jake Fraley), the bats are about as bad as they can get. It can only get better… right? Two weeks ago, SIX guys with a sub .200 average played. Yesterday’s lineup had three. Two of those guys shouldn’t be in the lineup anyway. Point is, moving forward the competition lightens up (outside of the Dodgers one more time) and most of our guys are already trending in the right direction finally.
The starting pitching has been the best in recent memory. The starters (including Nick Martinez) have an ERA of 3.69. That’s the best the Reds have pitched to this point in the season since 2014 – the bats were dead that year too. Don’t worry about the pitching. The problem is, they can’t win 1-run games going a well-documented 1-11 so far. When they need to hit, they don’t. Not to mention that Mike Ford being your three-hole hitter every day is as unserious as it gets. I took a break after writing that last sentence.
LHP Brandon Williamson made a rehab start for Louisville yesterday, giving up 5 hits and surrendering one run in 3 2/3 innings of work. For those of you worrying about Spencer Steer, he should be fine. Bell yanked him back for Hurtubise yesterday due to a sore ankle evidently and should be 100% on Tuesday. Emilio Pagan should not need time on the IL after leaving the game due to forearm tightness, but we’ve been told that before. LHP Nick Lodolo should be back to open the series against Saint Louis on May 27th. Lastly, OF Nick Martini was recalled while OF Conner Capel was sent back down after being given pretty much zero opportunity.
My Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card
This has become a mental exercise. The lineup is the reason I am personally done with David Bell. Argue all you want that he has the roster he was given, injuries, he can’t bat for them, etc. End of the day, his lineups are terrible, and the last straw is the fact that Mike Ford has been absolutely non-competitive, but Bell sticks with him in the 3-hole. It’s unbelievably frustration and as unserious it gets in pro sports. Ford should not touch the lineup, much less the top half. He’s batting .143 against RHP and it’s not just the average (other guys in this lineup have bad averages), it’s that AB after AB, he is non-competitive. I hate to go in on our own guy, but Ford has 1 BB in 46 PAs, has a Batting Run Value of NEGATIVE 5, and is below average in every single advanced metric except Whiff % (which hardly matters when all the contact you make is weak grounders and pop-ups). All that in mind, this is what I would do all series:
| Batters | Average vs RHP | |
| 1 | CF Will Benson | .225 |
| 2 | SS Elly De La Cruz | .257 |
| 3 | RF Jake Fraley | .268 |
| 4 | C Tyler Stephenson | .274 |
| 5 | LF Spencer Steer | .252 |
| 6 | 1B Jeimer Candelario | .188 |
| 7 | 2B Jonathan India | .208 |
| 8 | 3B Santiago Espinal | .172 |
| 9 | DH Nick Martini | .161 |
I’ll get bold – I’d rather see Stu face RHP than Mike Ford. But I’m guessing that is what Martini was brought up for. Candelario is improving and the .188 average is not indicative of what we should expect. Stephenson needs to be in the lineup everyday unless Greene absolutely has to have Maile for some reason. Stephenson has become a brand new player and for right now, he’s the best batter on this roster – both ways.
San Diego Padres Notebook
The Padres come into this series 5-5 in their last 10. They got the better of the Cincinnati Reds in April, taking two from that three game set. San Diego scores a lot of runs – the fifth most in the bigs. They also give up a lot of runs – the tenth most. All three guys the Reds are set to face hand out runs. Musgrove has given up 3+ runs in 6 of his 8 starts, King in 5 of his 9, and Waldron in 4 of his 9. Only 4 of their combined 27 starts have gone without a run given up.
The Padres lineup is solid. All their everyday guys are over .200 – the Reds can’t say that. Luis Arraez arrived via trade on May 4th and has continued his incredible tear – the dude gets on base. Jurickson Profar is having a career year. Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, and Luis Campusano have all been above average as well.
