Following Saturday night’s win over the Los Angeles Angels, we are officially 20 games into the 2024 season. As we settle into the rhythm of the baseball calendar, it’s the perfect moment to assess individual performances. In this post, we’ll take a closer look at the Reds’ roster to identify players who have exceeded expectations, and a few who might need to step up their game.
Let’s start with those few players who have underperformed expectations to begin the season, and who will be looking to bounce back as we finish off April and head into May.
Struggle.
Jeimer Candelario
Jeimer Candelario, coming off a robust 2023 campaign where he posted a .251/.336/.471 line and an .807 OPS, signed a 3-year, $45 million contract to anchor third base for the Cincinnati Reds. However, his start to the 2024 season has been disappointing, with a batting average of .183, on-base percentage of .265, and slugging percentage of .367, combining for a .632 OPS over the first 16 games. More concerning are his advanced metrics: his Sweet-Spot percentage has decreased from 36.9% in 2023 (76th percentile) to 30.8% this season (30th percentile), and his Whiff percentage has increased from 24.2% (56th percentile) to 33.9% (10th percentile), indicating significant issues with making effective contact.
It’s just the beginning…
Considering his history of slow starts, as evidenced by his career March/April slash line of .233/.307/.366 with a .673 OPS, Candelario’s early struggles this season are somewhat anticipated. As we move into May and approach the dog days of summer, expect Candelario to potentially find his rhythm and begin to turn his performance around.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CES), a prominent figure in the 2022 trade deadline deal that sent Tyler Mahle to the Twins, began his major league career impressively in 2023. Over 63 games, CES posted a .270/.238/.477 slash line, achieving a .805 OPS with 13 home runs and 37 RBIs. However, the start of the 2024 season has seen him struggle at the plate, managing only a .182/.188/.312 slash line with a .500 OPS in 18 games. Unlike Candelario, CES’s challenge has not been the quality of contact. He boasts a robust 44.4% Hard-Hit% and an 11.1% Barrel% (64th and 74th percentiles, respectively). The main issue for Strand has been his plate discipline; his alarmingly high Chase % of 42.9% places him in the 2nd percentile across all of baseball. Moreover, he has decreased his O-Contact% while increasing his O-Swing%, which means he’s swinging more at pitches outside of the zone but making less contact with them.
Data matters.
Despite these struggles, there’s a silver lining. So far in 2024, Strand’s BABIP has dropped to .231 from .336 in 2023. Given that he continues to barrel the ball at a high rate, this suggests a streak of bad luck with the balls he’s putting into play. If his BABIP normalizes closer to last year’s levels, and he adjusts his approach at the plate to address his discipline issues, there’s a good chance he could see significant improvements in his performance as the season progresses.
As we navigate through the challenges facing players like Encarnacion-Strand, it’s also important to shift our focus and highlight some of the brighter spots on the team. Let’s look at the players who have exceeded expectations early in the 2024 season. These individuals have not only risen to the occasion but have also significantly contributed to the team’s dynamics, showcasing their potential to impact the season positively
Standouts.
Spencer Steer
Spencer Steer, the centerpiece of the 2022 trade that sent Tyler Mahle to the Twins, had a standout first full season in 2023. Playing in 156 games—the most of any Red’s position player that year—Steer posted a solid .271/.356/.464 slash line, translating to an .820 OPS. His performance was consistently average to above-average across both traditional offensive statistics and advanced batted ball metrics. Notably, he maintained a slightly better-than-average Chase % at 23.9%, complemented by average rankings in Whiff %, K%, and Sweet-Spot %. Overall, Steer amassed 1.9 fWAR in 2023 and was projected by ZiPS to build on this with a 2.6 fWAR season in 2024.
In 2024, Steer has elevated his game to become one of baseball’s top hitters. Over the first 20 games, he boasts a remarkable .324/.435/.564 slash line for a .999 OPS. He has hit safely in fourteen of those games, including seven multi-hit performances. More than just traditional stats, Steer excels in plate discipline posting an impressive 15.3% K % and 12.9% BB %, placing him in the 82nd percentile for both. Moreover, he’s achieving a career-high Hard-Hit % of 53.4% (94th percentile), showing improvements in Sweet-Spot % as well as Chase % and Whiff %. If Steer maintains this exceptional level of play throughout the season, he could be on track for a career-defining year. His enhanced plate discipline and power-hitting capabilities suggest the potential for significant increases in both home runs and RBIs, possibly pushing him into elite territory among MLB hitters. This performance could not only catapult his fWAR well beyond the preseason projections but also establish him as a cornerstone player for the Reds for years to come.
With Spencer Steer setting a high bar for performance, let’s turn our attention to another exciting player whose dynamic play has captured the attention of the entire baseball world.
Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La Cruz signed with the Cincinnati Reds as a 16-year-old international free agent from the Dominican Republic in 2018 for just $65,000, and many scouts considered him a long shot to ever reach the major leagues. While I won’t delve into his entire backstory—assuming many readers are familiar with it—it’s worth noting that his rapid ascent through the minor leagues suggested some early challenges at the big-league level were likely. Despite these expectations, De La Cruz has begun the 2024 season in an impressively strong manner.
Known for his prolific game power, where in 2023 he posted an average exit velocity of 91.2 MPH (79th percentile) and featured a max exit velocity of 119.2 MPH (99th percentile), De La Cruz has shown no signs of slowing down in 2024. He has increased his average exit velocity to 91.9 MPH (86th percentile), while also increasing his Barrel %, and drastically improving his Hard-Hit% 18.2% (97th percentile), and 50.0% (85th percentile) respectively. Batted ball data is not the only way Elly has improved upon expectations, he has drastically improved his BB % from an abysmal 8.2% (46th percentile) in 2023 to 13.6% (85th percentile) in 2024, while also decreasing his K %, 33.7 % (3rd percentile) in 2023, to 30.9% (14th percentile) in 2024.
Always ready for the moment.
Despite high expectations, De La Cruz’s performance in the latter half of 2023 was underwhelming, leading many to anticipate a continuation of this trend in 2024. However, he has defied these expectations, showcasing dramatic improvements at the start of the year. One of my personal favorite advanced metrics to look at is xwOBAcon (Expected Weighted On-Base Average on Contact), it’s a mouthful I know. Essentially, this metric removes strikeouts, walks, and HBP’s to measure the productiveness of a hitter when they put the ball in play. In 2024 Elly has posted an xwOBAcon of .513 (95th percentile), which when you account for his much better plate discipline as evident by this 20-game rolling K % and BB %, the changes Elly made in the offseason seem like the real deal.
Through the first 20 games of the season, De La Cruz is slashing .290/.395/.638 with an OPS of 1.033, including 6 home runs, 15 RBIs, and a league-leading 10 steals. On track for an fWAR of 8.1 over 162 games, he would have ranked third in all of baseball last season based on this metric. While projecting an 8+ fWAR season might be ambitious, it’s not out of reach to envision him achieving a 5+ fWAR season and solidifying his status as one of the top five shortstops in Major League Baseball, if he maintains his current trajectory.
To close…
As the 2024 MLB season unfolds, the Cincinnati Reds are showcasing a blend of promising talents and experienced players striving to hit their stride. From Jeimer Candelario and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who are looking to rebound from slow starts, to Spencer Steer and Elly De La Cruz, who have set the bar high with their outstanding early performances, the Reds have several narratives developing that could define their season. The contributions of these players not only highlight their individual potential but also shape the overall dynamics of the team. As we continue through the season, it will be fascinating to see how these players adapt and evolve, potentially steering the Reds towards a successful campaign.
