Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs – May 31, 2024

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs – May 31, 2024 – The Cincinnati Reds fly into Chicago 8 games under .500 and with a very important stretch of games incoming if they want a shot at making any noise. Such a confounding team – they sweep the Dodgers, then drop a series to the Cardinals. The most concerning thing recently has been Elly’s performance. Can Cincinnati’s star turn it around against the Cubs?

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Cincinnati Reds RHP Graham Ashcraft

Ashcraft was rocked last time out against the Dodgers giving up 5 runs, but still added a W to his tally with some incredible run support. The highest ERA, but the most wins among starters, Ashcraft gets the most run support by far. He continues to be what he has always been – a middle of the rotation guy that gets a lot of groundballs. His main issue is getting ambushed on his cutter early in counts – he can’t get to his slider. Ashcraft has not had an outing without giving up a run since 05/01, so expect a run or two early unless he can clamp down.

Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card

Give it a series or two for TJ to get settled in again. Two injuries, coming back and then going back on the IL immediately is not easy to readjust after. Stephenson has cooled down a bit, but we can think Bell for part of that – benching him every third day. India is .300 over his last 7 – watch out (if he’ll take that bat off his shoulder).

Elly is batting .216 in the month of May. That is the most concerning thing by far. The new big metric bat speed has Elly in the 89th percentile, but we already knew he would be up there. The problem is clear. He whiffs over 30% of the time. Doesn’t matter how fast your bat moves if you can’t make contact. He needs to slow the at-bat down and wait on the ball – he’s striking out on offspeed stuff more than anything else.

Chicago Cubs RHP Javier Assad

Assad was rocked for 4 runs last time out and lost to the Cardinals. On the year, he’s been very solid – 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA. Advanced stats don’t stand out – everything is around league average except his Pitching Run Value. He gets it done in every way. He does issue a lot of walks and doesn’t really have swing and miss stuff. The Reds should get some pitches to hit, but he excels at inducing weak contact.

Chicago Cubs Lineup Card

Honestly, the Cubs lineup has not been too much better than the Reds. That is not a surprise when you see that the Cubs expected wins on the season is the same as Cincinnati’s. The names to watch out for are Bellinger and Reds-killer Ian Happ. Bellinger is on fire – .355 in his last 7 games. Happ always seems to come through against Cincinnati. Morel has been ice cold and underperforming on the year. Let’s hope he doesn’t wake up against the Reds.