Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers – May 17th, 2024 – A glimmer of hope? A spark? Whatever you take away from it, last night’s win was incredible. The bullpen did their job and picked up for the rotation for a missed start by Lodolo. Elly did Elly things – 4 for 4 with 3 runs scored, a walk, and 4 steals. In fact, everyone except Steer and Fraley got on base. Tyler Stephenson had two RBI hits. Jeimer Candelario and Stuart Fairchild both came through with nice RBI XBHs. Just a complete domination of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Let’s break down how the Cincinnati Reds can repeat last night’s success.
Cincinnati Reds RHP Frankie Montas
No two ways about it – Montas’ last time out was a step in the wrong direction. He gave up 5 runs (4 earned) on 4.2 IP after a solid start out the time before. Montas’ velocity and movement have both picked up since his stint on the IL for a forearm contusion. Montas’ advanced statistics show a very middle of the road starter, but it is encouraging to see that his K % and his First Pitch Strike % are up tremendously. Look for him to not be shy and go after this Dodgers lineup. After all, what else can you do when they can all hit?
Cincinnati Reds Lineup Card
| Batters | Average | |
| 1 | 2B Jonathan India | .228 |
| 2 | SS Elly De La Cruz | .277 |
| 3 | LF Spencer Steer | .234 |
| 4 | C Tyler Stephenson | .255 |
| 5 | 1B Jeimer Candelario | .230 |
| 6 | DH Mike Ford | .182 |
| 7 | CF Stuart Fairchild | .205 |
| 8 | 3B Santiago Espinal | .194 |
| 9 | RF Will Benson | .196 |
Writing out the lineup card feels so much better after a night with as much production as last night’s win. Candelario and Stephenson are on a tear lately. Elly went 4 for 4 and now we get to see him bat from the right handed batters box again. I personally feel he looks better every time we see him face a lefty. LHP mashing Stuart Fairchild is one to watch tonight. He’s been heating up of late as well and is always a wonder in CF too. Mike Ford really is your everyday DH folks.
Los Angeles Dodgers LHP James Paxton
The Dodgers acquired 35 year old Paxton via free agency this past offseason. An 11-year veteran, Paxton has put together a very solid career with a lifetime 3.64 ERA over 163 starts. His ERA is even better this year – 2.58 in 7 starts. Paxton has been steady, and has yet to really be knocked around. Interestingly though, he gives up a better average to lefties (.259 vs .213 against righties). Even more interestingly, his advanced statistics this season are TERRIBLE. He is literally below average in every single statistic except Extension off the mound – and honestly that doesn’t matter. He is in the SIXTH percentile for both K % and BB % (13.7% and 14.9% respectively).
Walking more batters than you strikeout isn’t usually a recipe for success. If you took Paxton and put him on a team that did not hit as well as Los Angeles, he’d probably have 2-3 losses by now. His fastball and curveball both have positive run value and are a mean 1-2 punch though. His Batting Average Against in the first two innings is over .200 but then plummets until the fifth inning – he shuts you down if you don’t get to him early.
Los Angeles Dodgers Lineup Card
| Batters | Average | |
| 1 | SS Mookie Betts | .343 |
| 2 | DH Shohei Ohtani | .360 |
| 3 | 1B Freddie Freeman | .292 |
| 4 | C Will Smith | .315 |
| 5 | LF Teoscar Hernandez | .243 |
| 6 | 2B Gavin Lux | .196 |
| 7 | CF Andy Pages | .267 |
| 8 | RF Jason Heyward | .214 |
| 9 | 3B Enrique Hernandez | .212 |
The Dodgers are taking the Reds a little more seriously tonight. Smith and Pages are back in the lineup. It’s not easy to hold baseball’s best lineup to 2 runs. Don’t expect it again. Should be an offensive battle tonight.
