This rule 5 protection deadline is today at 6pm ET. Sources tell Nati Sports that the Reds are protecting three prospects we mentioned in yesterday’s article – the obvious ones, Edwin Arroyo & Hector Rodriguez, both rank inside the Reds’ Top 10 prospects per MLB Pipeline and were considered the obvious choices. They also added Leo Balcazar. The organization will leave their other ranked prospect, Carlos Jorge, exposed, a decision we believe is both logical and defensible.
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Visit the Reds HUB →When Will Edwin Arroyo Debut?
Edwin Arroyo missed the entire 2024 season, but when he finally returned, he finished the year red hot at the plate. Even so, Cincinnati wants him to get a full, healthy workload at Triple-A in 2026. The expectation inside the organization is that he’ll serve as depth for an infield injury or earn a mid-season call-up.
AAA is the right landing spot — Arroyo still shows mixed results, especially offensively, and the Reds want to see consistent at-bats before handing him a roster spot. His would-be league-minimum salary also works in his favor. With Cincinnati still operating on a restricted payroll, young cost-controlled players remain a critical part of the team’s competitive strategy.
When Arroyo does debut, he’s expected to stick in the infield and bring value from both sides of the plate. As a switch hitter with strong contact skills, he fits the mold of what hitting coach Chris Valaika is obsessed with. He may never be a major power threat, but projecting 10–12 home runs per season as a full-time contributor is realistic in my field of view, maybe more if he hits his developmental ceiling.
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When Will Hector Rodriguez Debut?
Of the two protected prospects, Hector Rodriguez is the more MLB-ready option. He’s already spent time in AAA, and while the numbers were mixed, the Reds believe there’s still untapped upside.
Rodriguez posted a 140 wRC+ in Double-A over 82 games — elite production. His 85 wRC+ in AAA was less impressive, but fatigue and minor injuries played a role. Cincinnati views him as a candidate to break camp as early as Opening Day 2026 against the Boston Red Sox.
If not, he should debut early in the year unless he’s moved in a trade.
Between his bat speed, athleticism, and improving approach, Rodriguez has a clearer path to immediate playing time than Arroyo. Assuming health, he should force the Reds’ hand sooner rather than later.
Leo Balcazar
I’m a bit surprised, but the Reds are making sure no other team has access to Balcazar. They spent a decent amount of pool money on him and he has made a name for himself with his contact ability, but I feel pretty confident no one would’ve swiped his services. Regardless, he remains a Red.
